Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Just a short pre-Christmas note today. A number of market pundits have been giving the all clear to jump back in the pool now that crypto has been nuked and Peleton et al are down 80%+.</li><li>Yes, those were bubbles of the more ridiculous variety, but the S&amp;P 500 is still dangerously expensive and growth stocks are not the sole reason.</li><li>Under the hood, the index is stuffed with mature industrial and consumer businesses still trading well above their historical norms.</li></ul>

Just a short pre-Christmas note today. A number of market pundits have been giving the all clear to jump back in the pool now that crypto has been nuked and Peleton et al are down 80%+.Yes, those were bubbles of the more ridiculous variety, but the S&amp;P 500 is still dangerously expensive and growth stocks are not the sole reason.Under the hood, the index is stuffed with mature industrial and consumer businesses still trading well above their historical norms.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Costco gave a decent performance this quarter, with an increase in net sales in comparison to the last year.</li><li>The company surpassed Wall Street expectations on all countsAverage transaction of ticket, traffic, sales metrics, or shopping frequency increased during the quarter.</li><li>In the quarter, the best-performing key categories were deli, bakery, toys, jewelry, lawn and garden, tire, kiosks, frozen, and candy.</li></ul>

Costco gave a decent performance this quarter, with an increase in net sales in comparison to the last year.The company surpassed Wall Street expectations on all countsAverage transaction of ticket, traffic, sales metrics, or shopping frequency increased during the quarter.In the quarter, the best-performing key categories were deli, bakery, toys, jewelry, lawn and garden, tire, kiosks, frozen, and candy.

Costco Wholesale Corp: Expansion In Taiwan & China

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Quick (Q)-commerce continues to grow, with rapid home delivery providing a new level of convenience to meet demand from busy, urban consumers.  </li>
<li>Z Holdings’ team of Yahoo, Askul and Demae-can have run what is now called Yahoo Mart since 2020 which has opened its first three retail stores, a new omnichannel model.</li>
<li>Given the data analysis and supply chain power of its backers, these stores could quickly become a thorn in the side of the big convenience store chains.</li>
</ul>


Quick (Q)-commerce continues to grow, with rapid home delivery providing a new level of convenience to meet demand from busy, urban consumers.  
Z Holdings’ team of Yahoo, Askul and Demae-can have run what is now called Yahoo Mart since 2020 which has opened its first three retail stores, a new omnichannel model.
Given the data analysis and supply chain power of its backers, these stores could quickly become a thorn in the side of the big convenience store chains.


Yahoo Mart's Q-Conbini Stores: A Potential Competitor to the Big 3 CVS?

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>In just a few weeks, we will be in the thick of the third quarter earnings season which will steal the spotlight, at least temporarily, from global macro developments. </li><li>There appears to be mounting evidence from downside earnings surprises from Nike, FedEx, and CarMax that the consumer and economic pullback is now showing up in the financial reporting of companies quarterly profits and margins. </li><li>The global economic slowdown and inflation impacts are eroding margins and causing retailers like Nike to experience significant inventory builds which will require price cuts to clear the inventory (while good news for inflation). </li></ul>

In just a few weeks, we will be in the thick of the third quarter earnings season which will steal the spotlight, at least temporarily, from global macro developments. There appears to be mounting evidence from downside earnings surprises from Nike, FedEx, and CarMax that the consumer and economic pullback is now showing up in the financial reporting of companies quarterly profits and margins. The global economic slowdown and inflation impacts are eroding margins and causing retailers like Nike to experience significant inventory builds which will require price cuts to clear the inventory (while good news for inflation). 

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Uni President Enterprises and President Chain Store Corp (an affiliate of Uni-President Group) have agreed to acquire a controlling 60% stake ownership of Carrefour Taiwan from Carrefour SA (CA FP).</li>
<li>We believe the acquisition of the additional 49.5% stake in Carrefour Taiwan is likely to have a positive impact on Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT).</li>
<li>Uni President Enterprises is trading at P/S multiple of 0.77x so the acquisition multiple of 0.6x would be slightly lower than Uni President Enterprises' current valuation multiple. </li>
</ul>


Uni President Enterprises and President Chain Store Corp (an affiliate of Uni-President Group) have agreed to acquire a controlling 60% stake ownership of Carrefour Taiwan from Carrefour SA (CA FP).
We believe the acquisition of the additional 49.5% stake in Carrefour Taiwan is likely to have a positive impact on Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT).
Uni President Enterprises is trading at P/S multiple of 0.77x so the acquisition multiple of 0.6x would be slightly lower than Uni President Enterprises' current valuation multiple. 


Uni President Enterprises: Positive Catalyst from Additional Stake Purchase of Carrefour Taiwan

United States

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates wholesale membership warehouses in multiple countries.  The Company sells all kinds of food, automotive supplies, toys, hardware, sporting goods, jewelry, electronics, apparel, health and beauty aids, as well as other goods.

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Costco Wholesale (COST US)

The Bubble Isn't Where You Think It Is

A number of market pundits have been giving the all clear to jump back in the pool now that crypto has been nuked and Peleton et al are down 80%+.

Superfluous Value

Costco Wholesale Corp: Expansion In Taiwan & China

Costco gave a decent performance this quarter, with an increase in net sales in comparison to the last year. The company surpassed Wall Street...

Baptista Research

Yahoo Mart's Q-Conbini Stores: A Potential Competitor to the Big 3 CVS?

All big 3 e-commerce firms in Japan now have an omnichannel model to win out in the next big fight for share: FMCG. Z Holdings' has been slower...

Michael Causton

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 10/3

In just a few weeks, we will be in the thick of the third quarter earnings season which will steal the spotlight, at least temporarily, from global...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Uni President Enterprises: Positive Catalyst from Additional Stake Purchase of Carrefour Taiwan

We believe the acquisition of the additional 49.5% stake in Carrefour Taiwan is likely to have a positive impact on Uni President Enterprises (1216...

Douglas Kim

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