Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zozo recorded its highest profit ever last year, countering the sceptics once again. </li>
<li>The company has shrugged off the uncertainties surrounding the departure of its founder and, while sticking to its core values, is looking for new growth beyond fashion e-commerce.</li>
<li>While there are some headwinds, Zozo has a solid set of strategies in place to offset these and find new growth streams.</li>
</ul>


Zozo recorded its highest profit ever last year, countering the sceptics once again. 
The company has shrugged off the uncertainties surrounding the departure of its founder and, while sticking to its core values, is looking for new growth beyond fashion e-commerce.
While there are some headwinds, Zozo has a solid set of strategies in place to offset these and find new growth streams.


Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Z Holdings will integrate its eCommerce platforms in a move that boosts the PayPay brand and may generate some (very) modest synergies</li>
<li>We are publishing updated forecasts and setting a new target price at ¥550 but we remain cautious on the shares in the near term as consensus remains high</li>
<li>Shares of ZHD still appear expensive at 14-16x our estimate of FY22e EBITDA and are more expensive than Alphabet at these levels (12x EBITDA)</li>
</ul>


Z Holdings will integrate its eCommerce platforms in a move that boosts the PayPay brand and may generate some (very) modest synergies
We are publishing updated forecasts and setting a new target price at ¥550 but we remain cautious on the shares in the near term as consensus remains high
Shares of ZHD still appear expensive at 14-16x our estimate of FY22e EBITDA and are more expensive than Alphabet at these levels (12x EBITDA)


Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 12th Jun 2022.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 12th Jun 2022.


Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry Now, Before 20% Is Released Later in the Year

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The three Japanese telecoms reported earnings this week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> was disappointing (and slightly confusing). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> was much of a muchness.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>  looked the best, and announced the largest buyback - ¥400bn or 3%. But it comes from a government sale, not the market. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the company is doing what it promised and executing on its promise. And despite the "bullishness" in the revenue forecast, earnings forecasts to March 2023 look conservative.</li>
</ul>


The three Japanese telecoms reported earnings this week. Softbank Corp (9434 JP) was disappointing (and slightly confusing). KDDI Corp (9433 JP) was much of a muchness.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)  looked the best, and announced the largest buyback - ¥400bn or 3%. But it comes from a government sale, not the market. 
Nevertheless, the company is doing what it promised and executing on its promise. And despite the "bullishness" in the revenue forecast, earnings forecasts to March 2023 look conservative.


NTT (9432) - Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.</li>
<li>Although the market treated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.</li>
<li>Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.</li>
</ul>


Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.
Although the market treated MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.
Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.


Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

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ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Z Holdings will integrate its two eCommerce platforms but this appears to be more about ambitious growth targets for fintech. We are publishing new...

Kirk Boodry

Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry Now, Before 20% Is Released Later in the Year

Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021. The lockup on one set of...

Sumeet Singh

NTT (9432) - Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go

NTT (9432) reported salutary earnings, and forecasts to March 2023, and a ¥400bn ToSTNeT-3 buyback from the govt. There is accretion, a div hike,...

Travis Lundy

MonotaRo: Not a Pandemic Stock

With the share price down 51% from the peak at one point, markets discounted MonotaRo alongside the rest of the pandemic stocks, even though the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures

Zozo continues to confound sceptics. Despite slowing e-commerce growth post-Covid, Zozo has solid strategies in place to continue to expand and...

Michael Causton

Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Z Holdings will integrate its two eCommerce platforms but this appears to be more about ambitious growth targets for fintech. We are publishing new...

Kirk Boodry

Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry Now, Before 20% Is Released Later in the Year

Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021. The lockup on one set of...

Sumeet Singh

NTT (9432) - Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go

NTT (9432) reported salutary earnings, and forecasts to March 2023, and a ¥400bn ToSTNeT-3 buyback from the govt. There is accretion, a div hike,...

Travis Lundy

MonotaRo: Not a Pandemic Stock

With the share price down 51% from the peak at one point, markets discounted MonotaRo alongside the rest of the pandemic stocks, even though the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri