Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.</li>
<li>The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.</li>
<li>We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.</li>
</ul>


We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.


Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>China Vanke has caused jitters as it was reported to be closely watched by some insurers as it seeks to rollover some of its debt with insurers.</li>
<li>It is reported that it has sufficient funding to repay its bond due on March 11th and is lining up a HK$1.5 billion syndication loan. </li>
<li>Vanke warrants close monitoring as there is no sign of turning in its reducing contract sales, deteriorating cash position, shrinking financing ability. </li>
</ul>


China Vanke has caused jitters as it was reported to be closely watched by some insurers as it seeks to rollover some of its debt with insurers.
It is reported that it has sufficient funding to repay its bond due on March 11th and is lining up a HK$1.5 billion syndication loan. 
Vanke warrants close monitoring as there is no sign of turning in its reducing contract sales, deteriorating cash position, shrinking financing ability. 


China Vanke: Should Investors Be Worried?

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> saw a major drop in bond and stock prices recently, due to fear of default. </li>
<li>Yesterday, the company held a conference call, with representatives from Shenzhen SASAC and Shenzhen Metro (major shareholder of Vanke and owned by Shenzhen SASAC) participating in the call.</li>
<li>The strong support shown by Shenzhen SASAC/Shenzhen Metro represents a good short-term buying opportunity, for both Vanke stock and bonds. </li>
</ul>



China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) saw a major drop in bond and stock prices recently, due to fear of default. 
Yesterday, the company held a conference call, with representatives from Shenzhen SASAC and Shenzhen Metro (major shareholder of Vanke and owned by Shenzhen SASAC) participating in the call.
The strong support shown by Shenzhen SASAC/Shenzhen Metro represents a good short-term buying opportunity, for both Vanke stock and bonds. 


China Vanke (2202 HK):  Short Term Trading Opportunity Post Conference Call

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>Last week, China Mobile (941), SMIC (981) and CNOOC (883) all saw total SOUTHBOUND turnover top 75% of value traded on a gross basis, indicating huge participation. </li>
<li>Meituan was again the top SOUTHBOUND inflow, now net inflow every day for more than a month. Total Net Inflows at HK$6.9bn now 14 weeks straight in the positive column.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
Last week, China Mobile (941), SMIC (981) and CNOOC (883) all saw total SOUTHBOUND turnover top 75% of value traded on a gross basis, indicating huge participation. 
Meituan was again the top SOUTHBOUND inflow, now net inflow every day for more than a month. Total Net Inflows at HK$6.9bn now 14 weeks straight in the positive column.


Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 27-Oct-23); Meituan & Tech IN, High Div SOEs OUT, Financials MIA

<ul>
<li>The Brand-Spanking New (8 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.</li>
<li>The last 7 weeks (since the start of the new Trcker and Portfolio 8 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.</li>
</ul>


The Brand-Spanking New (8 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
The last 7 weeks (since the start of the new Trcker and Portfolio 8 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.


Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Sep28): Hs Suffer Vs As Despite Inflows

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

Price Gauge
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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

We see Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...

Eric Chen

China Vanke: Should Investors Be Worried?

China Vanke jitters as insurers raised concerns for the company. Vanke warrants close monitoring due to declining contract sales, cash position,...

Fern Wang

China Vanke (2202 HK): Short Term Trading Opportunity Post Conference Call

According to public news, China is drafting a white list of 50 developers, which includes Vanke. The list will be given to financial institutions...

Steve Zhou, CFA

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 27-Oct-23); Meituan & Tech IN, High Div SOEs OUT, Financials MIA

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying. Again. HK$6.9bn over four days. The oil and telecom SOEs continue to see outflows. Meituan continues to see inflows....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Sep28): Hs Suffer Vs As Despite Inflows

Quiddity's A-H Premium Tracker (tables, charts, and measures to track A/H premium positioning and flows). 46 recommendations.

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

We see ​Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...

Eric Chen

China Vanke: Should Investors Be Worried?

China Vanke jitters as insurers raised concerns for the company. Vanke warrants close monitoring due to declining contract sales, cash position,...

Fern Wang

China Vanke (2202 HK): Short Term Trading Opportunity Post Conference Call

According to public news, China is drafting a white list of 50 developers, which includes Vanke. The list will be given to financial institutions...

Steve Zhou, CFA

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 27-Oct-23); Meituan & Tech IN, High Div SOEs OUT, Financials MIA

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying. Again. HK$6.9bn over four days. The oil and telecom SOEs continue to see outflows. Meituan continues to see inflows....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Sep28): Hs Suffer Vs As Despite Inflows

Quiddity's A-H Premium Tracker (tables, charts, and measures to track A/H premium positioning and flows). 46 recommendations.

Travis Lundy

We see Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...