Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.<div>S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…</div>

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing'</li><li>Policymaker actions may have exacerbated concerns, but a careful study of the data suggests all is not lost</li><li>Chinese manufacturing is facing a major downturn, but services are still strong; a twin-speed economy</li><li>Commodity exporters to China face a secular decline in demand, but service exporters should prosper</li><li>Our rebalancing, your problem - EM faces greater challenges from China's rebalancing than China itself</li><li>Short-term risks of a hard landing have been reduced, but medium-term risks continue to increase</li></ul>

Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing'Policymaker actions may have exacerbated concerns, but a careful study of the data suggests all is not lostChinese manufacturing is facing a major downturn, but services are still strong; a twin-speed economyCommodity exporters to China face a secular decline in demand, but service exporters should prosperOur rebalancing, your problem - EM faces greater challenges from China's rebalancing than China itselfShort-term risks of a hard landing have been reduced, but medium-term risks continue to increase

Asia Calling: China's Great Rebalancing - Why the Consensus Is Wrong

Independent Insight Provider

Hao Wang, CFA

Event-Driven

Merry Xmas everyone! This is a quick update note on what my yesterday's analysis on Vanke-Baoneng battle. The trade recommendation - Short Vanke when its resumes trading on Jan 18th, is even more compelling simply because of two reasons: AnBang has <a href="http://www.anbanggroup.com/news_detail41.html" target="_blank">officially said</a>  ( only in Chinese) it will actively support Vanke's development and like to see stability in Vanke's management team and style; Regulators (<a href="http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site0/tab5168/info3983742.htm" target="_blank">CIRC</a>) has made public statement that insurance companies need to make timely disclosure on…

Merry Xmas everyone! This is a quick update note on what my yesterday's analysis on Vanke-Baoneng battle. The trade recommendation - Short Vanke when its resumes trading on Jan 18th, is even more compelling simply because of two reasons: AnBang has officially said  ( only in Chinese) it will actively support Vanke's development and like to see stability in Vanke's management team and style; Regulators (CIRC) has made public statement that insurance companies need to make timely disclosure on…

So Vanke Seems to Win the Battle Against Baoneng, but Is It that Simple?

This note is a quick summary of what’s happened to China Vanke Co., the largest property developer in China. Then I try to explain we want to short on Vanke’s stock after it resumes trading.What’s happened? China Vanke chairman Wang Shi and his management team are trying to get the best leverage in a battle to retain control of the company on the board against Baoneng Group, who has accumulated 22.45% of the stake in the company. Anbang insurance, another fast growing private insurance company…

This note is a quick summary of what’s happened to China Vanke Co., the largest property developer in China. Then I try to explain we want to short on Vanke’s stock after it resumes trading.What’s happened? China Vanke chairman Wang Shi and his management team are trying to get the best leverage in a battle to retain control of the company on the board against Baoneng Group, who has accumulated 22.45% of the stake in the company. Anbang insurance, another fast growing private insurance company…

What You Should Know About Vanke and Implications to Its Stock

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

Increasing Shorts on Strength

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Calling: China's Great Rebalancing - Why the Consensus Is Wrong

Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing' Policymaker actions may have exacerbated...

Callum Henderson

So Vanke Seems to Win the Battle Against Baoneng, but Is It that Simple?

Merry Xmas everyone! This is a quick update note on what my yesterday's analysis on Vanke-Baoneng battle. The trade recommendation - Short Vanke...

Hao Wang, CFA

What You Should Know About Vanke and Implications to Its Stock

This note is a quick summary of what’s happened to China Vanke Co., the largest property developer in China. Then I try to explain we want to short...

Hao Wang, CFA

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