Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations</li>
<li>Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%</li>
<li>Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish</li>
</ul>


Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations
Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%
Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish


Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

<ul>
<li>August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises</li>
<li>The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?</li>
<li>Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so</li>
</ul>


August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?
Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

<ul>
<li>Strong Q2 results out Tuesday morning beat consensus Revenue and core EPS estimates</li>
<li>But concerns remain about expense control and longevity of ongoing demand recovery</li>
<li>Great Q2 results, yes, but we think investors want more clarity about H2 demand</li>
</ul>


Strong Q2 results out Tuesday morning beat consensus Revenue and core EPS estimates
But concerns remain about expense control and longevity of ongoing demand recovery
Great Q2 results, yes, but we think investors want more clarity about H2 demand


Trip.com Q223 Quick Take: Revenue, EPS > Consensus | Guidance? Not Much | Still No Upside Surprises

<ul>
<li>Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs </li>
<li>Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand</li>
<li>We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)</li>
</ul>


Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs 
Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand
We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

<ul>
<li>We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month</li>
<li>What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks</li>
</ul>


We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June
Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month
What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

Preliminary tourism activity data from the long Golden Week holiday period appear to show a frustratingly sluggish recovery in Chinese travel demand.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

What is "pent-up" demand, and nine months into a recovery in travel activity, does China still have any? We review outbound activity, domestic...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q223 Quick Take: Revenue, EPS > Consensus | Guidance? Not Much | Still No Upside Surprises

Trip.com reported solid Q223 results on Tuesday morning. We have concerns about expense control, and we also sense that investors want clear...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

The recovery in outbound Chinese tourism remained strong in July. In this insight we also look at relaxation of Chinese group travel to Japan and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

We see mixed signals in June outbound travel activity, and the recovery in domestic activity continued at its modest pace. For value investors,...

Tracking Traffic

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