Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The effect of the COVID pandemic saw an unprecedented level of sector rotation among EM active portfolios in 2020.</li>
<li>Banking stocks were hit the hardest, with Semiconductor, Internet Retail and Interactive Media industry groups the beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Banking exposure is at its lowest levels in over a decade, EM active investors at highest ever weights in Tech related Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services stocks.</li>
<li>Improving outlook for banking stocks, vaccine hopes, plus potential regulation in the Tech sector point to a potential unwind.  </li>
<li>'Beaten Up' banking stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-unibanco-holding-sa-9d47d196-e503-471b-a84e-ca4401033062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24550:1" rel="noopener">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-bank-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24988:1" rel="noopener">Standard Bank (SBK SJ)</a> </li>
<li>Fully owned Tech related stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a> </li>
</ul>


The effect of the COVID pandemic saw an unprecedented level of sector rotation among EM active portfolios in 2020.
Banking stocks were hit the hardest, with Semiconductor, Internet Retail and Interactive Media industry groups the beneficiaries.
Banking exposure is at its lowest levels in over a decade, EM active investors at highest ever weights in Tech related Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services stocks.
Improving outlook for banking stocks, vaccine hopes, plus potential regulation in the Tech sector point to a potential unwind.  
'Beaten Up' banking stocks include Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) , Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) and Standard Bank (SBK SJ) 
Fully owned Tech related stocks include Meituan (3690 HK) , JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US) 


GEM Fund Positioning Update:  The COVID Unwind.

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> rallied 14% on Monday in the US on news that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>'s Covid19 vaccine had been found highly effective, and that distribution of the vaccine would begin before the end of 2020. Many travel-related stocks, such as airlines (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a>, +15%) and cruise operators (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-caribbean-cruises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1629:1" rel="noopener">Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL US)</a>, +29%) also rallied by 10% or more. We have anticipated a rebound in Chinese travel-related shares when there is positive news about a 'normalization' of travel, especially cross-border travel, which has been hit harder than domestic travel. As investors in Chinese travel-related stocks begin thinking about a return to 'normal' market conditions for the sector, now is probably a good time to revisit what 'normal' means. In the months prior to the emergence of Covid19, Chinese travel demand -- outbound and domestic -- was by several measures quite weak. While there will likely be a brief period in 2021 during which pent-up demand is finally met with easing travel restrictions, we believe that in the medium-term demand growth will sink back to the single digits.

Trip.com (TCOM US) rallied 14% on Monday in the US on news that Pfizer Inc (PFE US)'s Covid19 vaccine had been found highly effective, and that distribution of the vaccine would begin before the end of 2020. Many travel-related stocks, such as airlines (American Airlines Group (AAL US), +15%) and cruise operators (Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL US), +29%) also rallied by 10% or more. We have anticipated a rebound in Chinese travel-related shares when there is positive news about a 'normalization' of travel, especially cross-border travel, which has been hit harder than domestic travel. As investors in Chinese travel-related stocks begin thinking about a return to 'normal' market conditions for the sector, now is probably a good time to revisit what 'normal' means. In the months prior to the emergence of Covid19, Chinese travel demand -- outbound and domestic -- was by several measures quite weak. While there will likely be a brief period in 2021 during which pent-up demand is finally met with easing travel restrictions, we believe that in the medium-term demand growth will sink back to the single digits. 

Trip.com Rallies 14% on Vaccine News. But What's the 'Normal' We'll Return To in 2021?

Updated with air departure and hotel information on October 30, our Chinese travel tracker dashboard shows a couple of interesting data points this week:<ol>
<li>The pace of flight departure growth slowed at the four Mainland Chinese airports we track, while airports outside Mainland China showed solid improvement. This is the opposite of what we've seen in most periods since we launched this product in April 2020.</li>
<li>Average hotel room rates quoted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> firmed dramatically, but we worry about a single data point that had an outsized impact on weighted average rates. Even putting this odd figure aside, however, hotel rates improved slightly versus a month ago.</li>
</ol>

Updated with air departure and hotel information on October 30, our Chinese travel tracker dashboard shows a couple of interesting data points this week:
The pace of flight departure growth slowed at the four Mainland Chinese airports we track, while airports outside Mainland China showed solid improvement. This is the opposite of what we've seen in most periods since we launched this product in April 2020.
Average hotel room rates quoted by Trip.com (TCOM US) firmed dramatically, but we worry about a single data point that had an outsized impact on weighted average rates. Even putting this odd figure aside, however, hotel rates improved slightly versus a month ago.


TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 30): Air Traffic Ex-Mainland China Firms

<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/547/original/BANNER-TOURISM.png?1604062858" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168547"></figure>
</section>
Outbound Chinese travel demand remained weak in September, despite Macau doubling Chinese inbound traffic (again). Activity from China into most regional destinations remained comatose.
Domestic Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in September, and one metric even showed a modest YoY improvement. Other measures showed activity still far below year-ago levels. 
However, data also show that average domestic air segment length remains depressed, and this suggests consumers remain cautious regarding leisure travel.
We continue to expect only a gradual recovery in tourism and travel demand over the next few months.




Outbound Chinese travel demand remained weak in September, despite Macau doubling Chinese inbound traffic (again). Activity from China into most regional destinations remained comatose.
Domestic Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in September, and one metric even showed a modest YoY improvement. Other measures showed activity still far below year-ago levels. 
However, data also show that average domestic air segment length remains depressed, and this suggests consumers remain cautious regarding leisure travel.
We continue to expect only a gradual recovery in tourism and travel demand over the next few months.

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

Equity Capital Markets

We hope <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> will publish another set of updated financial statements (from Q3 2020) before it lists in Hong Kong later this year. If and when those results are published, investors should study them carefully to detect signs of a resurgent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a> , the ride-hailing giant that exited the car pool market in late 2018 but quietly re-entered about a year ago.
The two most telling signs of a DiDi ChuXing resurgence in the car pool segment would be: 
<ol>
<li>Dida Inc's car pool revenue growing slower than its car pool ride volume or GTV</li>
<li>A sharp rise in Sales &amp; Marketing expenses relative to DiDa Inc's overall revenue</li>
</ol>
Both of the above metrics would be reflected in DiDa Inc's car pool 'take rate': the net revenue it earns on booking car pool rides after deducting any incentives paid to drivers, payments that have likely diminished dramatically in the two years since Didi ChuXing exited the market. 
We suspect that in the absence of a large, savvy competitor (like DiDi ChuXing), DiDa Inc's 'take rate' is higher and its spending on Sales &amp; Marketing is lower than it would be otherwise. Signs that DiDi ChuXing is aggressively pushing its way back into this market -- which it used to dominate, and not so long ago -- would be negative for DiDa Inc, in our view.
In fact, the 'free ride' DiDa Inc has enjoyed as the dominant (and quite profitable) player in the growing car pool segment could come to an end.

We hope Dida (DIDA HK) will publish another set of updated financial statements (from Q3 2020) before it lists in Hong Kong later this year. If and when those results are published, investors should study them carefully to detect signs of a resurgent DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH) , the ride-hailing giant that exited the car pool market in late 2018 but quietly re-entered about a year ago.
The two most telling signs of a DiDi ChuXing resurgence in the car pool segment would be: 

Dida Inc's car pool revenue growing slower than its car pool ride volume or GTV
A sharp rise in Sales &amp; Marketing expenses relative to DiDa Inc's overall revenue

Both of the above metrics would be reflected in DiDa Inc's car pool 'take rate': the net revenue it earns on booking car pool rides after deducting any incentives paid to drivers, payments that have likely diminished dramatically in the two years since Didi ChuXing exited the market. 
We suspect that in the absence of a large, savvy competitor (like DiDi ChuXing), DiDa Inc's 'take rate' is higher and its spending on Sales &amp; Marketing is lower than it would be otherwise. Signs that DiDi ChuXing is aggressively pushing its way back into this market -- which it used to dominate, and not so long ago -- would be negative for DiDa Inc, in our view.
In fact, the 'free ride' DiDa Inc has enjoyed as the dominant (and quite profitable) player in the growing car pool segment could come to an end. 

No More 'Free Ride'? Key DiDa Inc Metrics That Could Reveal a DiDi ChuXing Resurgence

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

GEM Fund Positioning Update: The COVID Unwind.

How did Emerging Market managers react to the COVID-19 pandemic? Unprecedented rotation out of Bank stocks and in to Tech. How are managers now...

Steven Holden

Trip.com Rallies 14% on Vaccine News. But What's the 'Normal' We'll Return To in 2021?

An effective vaccine is part of what will get China and the world back to 'normal' travel demand. But even before Covid19 erupted, Chinese travel...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 30): Air Traffic Ex-Mainland China Firms

Air traffic and hotel room rate data from October 30 show an improvement in activity outside Mainland China (albeit from a low base) and improved...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

September numbers show almost non-existent outbound travel but a continued gradual recovery in domestic travel demand. Shorter average domestic air...

Tracking Traffic

No More 'Free Ride'? Key DiDa Inc Metrics That Could Reveal a DiDi ChuXing Resurgence

DiDa Inc has carved out a niche for itself in China's growing car pool segment. But should ride-hailing giant DiDi ChuXing re-emerge as a player,...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)