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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li> In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.</li>
<li>A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.</li>
<li>We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…</li>
</ul>


 In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.
A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.
We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…


China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

On the morning of September 6th in New York, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a>  announced two new fundraising initiatives. CTRP will sell 22.5 mn new ADS, equivalent to 4.9% of outstanding ADS, and in addition the company will issue $750 mn in convertible senior notes. Assuming no over-allotments, and full conversion of the notes, we estimate these initiatives will result in approximately 8.5% dilution for existing shareholders. CTRP shares initially traded down around 5% on the news.…

On the morning of September 6th in New York, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)  announced two new fundraising initiatives. CTRP will sell 22.5 mn new ADS, equivalent to 4.9% of outstanding ADS, and in addition the company will issue $750 mn in convertible senior notes. Assuming no over-allotments, and full conversion of the notes, we estimate these initiatives will result in approximately 8.5% dilution for existing shareholders. CTRP shares initially traded down around 5% on the news.…

Ctrip.com Surprises Markets With New Equity and Convertible Note Issuance

After listening to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a>'s Q2 earning conference call, we are convinced that competitive pressures are increasing for China's giant online travel group. In our view, competition (and related pressure on margins) remains intense, but it appears to be coming mainly from indirect competitors and rivals that weren't even on CTRP's radar 1-2 years ago. We therefore retain our negative view on CTRP.Competition appears to be increasing despite the company's dominant…

After listening to Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)'s Q2 earning conference call, we are convinced that competitive pressures are increasing for China's giant online travel group. In our view, competition (and related pressure on margins) remains intense, but it appears to be coming mainly from indirect competitors and rivals that weren't even on CTRP's radar 1-2 years ago. We therefore retain our negative view on CTRP.Competition appears to be increasing despite the company's dominant…

More on Ctrip.com Q2 Results; Competition Increasing On All Fronts

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

After the close in New York on Wednesday August 31st, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a> and its affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7357" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7357:1">Qunar Cayman Islands Ltd (QUNR US)</a> both reported Q2 (June) results. Both companies reported operating and net losses -- again -- despite strong top-line growth (+75% Y/Y, consolidated basis). We remain concerned that an apparent lack of cost control will prevent CTRP from reaching profitability this year, or next.As we await management commentary on a variety of issues, here are our…

After the close in New York on Wednesday August 31st, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) and its affiliate Qunar Cayman Islands Ltd (QUNR US) both reported Q2 (June) results. Both companies reported operating and net losses -- again -- despite strong top-line growth (+75% Y/Y, consolidated basis). We remain concerned that an apparent lack of cost control will prevent CTRP from reaching profitability this year, or next.As we await management commentary on a variety of issues, here are our…

First Cut on Ctrip.com Q2 Results: Margins Remain Under Pressure

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating...

David Riedel

Ctrip.com Surprises Markets With New Equity and Convertible Note Issuance

On the morning of September 6th in New York, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) announced two new fundraising initiatives. CTRP will sell...

Daniel Hellberg

More on Ctrip.com Q2 Results; Competition Increasing On All Fronts

After listening to Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)'s Q2 earning conference call, we are convinced that competitive pressures are increasing...

Daniel Hellberg

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This...

Christopher Balding

First Cut on Ctrip.com Q2 Results: Margins Remain Under Pressure

After the close in New York on Wednesday August 31st, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) and its affiliate Qunar Cayman Islands Ltd (QUNR...

Daniel Hellberg

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