Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If NPS and passive funds each tender half, it could hit 24%, pushing investors to consider both sides. The market’s eyeing a ratio of about MBK 3 to Choi 7.</li>
<li>This tight vote could drag out the event longer than expected, and MBK might scoop up more shares if they miss their minimum target.</li>
<li>MBK will likely go for open market buys against Korea Zinc’s buyback. Consider tendering to MBK Monday and spread trading futures, or push Korea Zinc to raise their buyback offer.</li>
</ul>


If NPS and passive funds each tender half, it could hit 24%, pushing investors to consider both sides. The market’s eyeing a ratio of about MBK 3 to Choi 7.
This tight vote could drag out the event longer than expected, and MBK might scoop up more shares if they miss their minimum target.
MBK will likely go for open market buys against Korea Zinc’s buyback. Consider tendering to MBK Monday and spread trading futures, or push Korea Zinc to raise their buyback offer.


Korea Zinc: Latest Stockholder Record for Proration Risk

<ul>
<li>Another play is spread trading Korea Zinc single-stock futures: go long on the front-month and short on the farther-out contract to profit from price convergence.</li>
<li>The key is when longer-dated futures' volume will rise and if the basis difference with front-month futures will create arbitrage opportunities. November's volume seems more for hedging than arbitrage.</li>
<li>MBK is likely to launch a second tender offer, potentially extending the spread trading timeline and giving us more chances to hit sweet spots.</li>
</ul>


Another play is spread trading Korea Zinc single-stock futures: go long on the front-month and short on the farther-out contract to profit from price convergence.
The key is when longer-dated futures' volume will rise and if the basis difference with front-month futures will create arbitrage opportunities. November's volume seems more for hedging than arbitrage.
MBK is likely to launch a second tender offer, potentially extending the spread trading timeline and giving us more chances to hit sweet spots.


Another Play to Consider: Spread Trading Korea Zinc Single-Stock Futures

<ul>
<li>MBK's strategy is clear: they believe they have the upper hand with the current price level and are optimistic about a favorable ruling on the second injunction.</li>
<li>All eyes are on Choi to raise the price by this Friday, the 11th, before the deadline, especially with the FSS's scrutiny looming.</li>
<li>If that happens, MBK will likely go all-in on the second injunction whose hearing is on the 18th. Choi raising the price this Friday won’t significantly boost Korea Zinc’s stock.</li>
</ul>


MBK's strategy is clear: they believe they have the upper hand with the current price level and are optimistic about a favorable ruling on the second injunction.
All eyes are on Choi to raise the price by this Friday, the 11th, before the deadline, especially with the FSS's scrutiny looming.
If that happens, MBK will likely go all-in on the second injunction whose hearing is on the 18th. Choi raising the price this Friday won’t significantly boost Korea Zinc’s stock.


MBK Rules Out Further Tender Price Hike for Korea Zinc, Game Plans Shift

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>We discuss the impact on the balance sheet and debt ratios of Korea Zinc's efforts to conduct a massive debt increase to buyback and cancel shares. </li>
<li>Although the Choi family may consider raising further debt to increase the tender offer price even further, we believe this could pose further balance sheet risk on Korea Zinc. </li>
<li>We provide sensitivity analysis of higher debt on the interest coverage ratios of Korea Zinc. </li>
</ul>


We discuss the impact on the balance sheet and debt ratios of Korea Zinc's efforts to conduct a massive debt increase to buyback and cancel shares. 
Although the Choi family may consider raising further debt to increase the tender offer price even further, we believe this could pose further balance sheet risk on Korea Zinc. 
We provide sensitivity analysis of higher debt on the interest coverage ratios of Korea Zinc. 


Impact on Korea Zinc's Balance Sheet and Debt Ratios Post Massive Debt Raise Proposed by Choi Family

<ul>
<li>MBK is unlikely to lower the tender price or cancel the offer due to legal constraints and potential regulatory hurdles, along with compensating investors.</li>
<li>Just keep in mind that if you want to participate in MBK's Korea Zinc offer, you'll need to submit your bid to secure that compensation safety net.</li>
<li>We can’t rule out the second injunction request being accepted on the 21st, leaving Choi’s camp in a tough position with tender offer cancellation risks compared to MBK.</li>
</ul>


MBK is unlikely to lower the tender price or cancel the offer due to legal constraints and potential regulatory hurdles, along with compensating investors.
Just keep in mind that if you want to participate in MBK's Korea Zinc offer, you'll need to submit your bid to secure that compensation safety net.
We can’t rule out the second injunction request being accepted on the 21st, leaving Choi’s camp in a tough position with tender offer cancellation risks compared to MBK.


Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps

South Korea

Korea Zinc Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal smelting industry.  The Company manufactures zinc ingots, electrolytic gold, silver, lead, sulfuric acid, and copper.  Korea Zinc provides its products to domestic and overseas markets.

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Korea Zinc (010130 KS)

Korea Zinc: Latest Stockholder Record for Proration Risk

This post pulls together the latest intel and data on Korea Zinc's shareholder list to assess proration risk right before the big finale of MBK's...

Sanghyun Park

Another Play to Consider: Spread Trading Korea Zinc Single-Stock Futures

This post explores spread trading Korea Zinc single-stock futures: go long on the front-month and short on the farther-out contract to profit from...

Sanghyun Park

MBK Rules Out Further Tender Price Hike for Korea Zinc, Game Plans Shift

Some potential key moves on Korea Zinc’s buyback tender and Choi’s SPC play on the Young Poong Precision offer just dropped. This intel’s fresh off...

Sanghyun Park

Impact on Korea Zinc's Balance Sheet and Debt Ratios Post Massive Debt Raise Proposed by Choi Family

On 7 October, Korea Zinc announced that of the 1.5 trillion won in its own funds that it previously announced it would invest for the share...

Douglas Kim

Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps

This post outlines the specific legal provisions regarding cancellation risks for both camps vying for control of Korea Zinc.

Sanghyun Park

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