China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We updated our revenue forecasts for ByteDance (China domestic) , with the industry models. We estimate that ByteDance's domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year.</li>
<li>In the advertising space, we recommend Tencent and iQIYI. Both Tencent and iQIYI experienced a decline in their advertising revenue market share in 2022, followed by a rebound in 2023.</li>
<li>In transactional GMV/GTV, we prefer Meituan and Pinduoduo. Meituan's market share experienced a significant decline in 2022, but the decline rate is expected to narrow significantly this year.</li>
</ul>


We updated our revenue forecasts for ByteDance (China domestic) , with the industry models. We estimate that ByteDance's domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year.
In the advertising space, we recommend Tencent and iQIYI. Both Tencent and iQIYI experienced a decline in their advertising revenue market share in 2022, followed by a rebound in 2023.
In transactional GMV/GTV, we prefer Meituan and Pinduoduo. Meituan's market share experienced a significant decline in 2022, but the decline rate is expected to narrow significantly this year.


[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Black Sesame Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/black-sesame-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39894:1" rel="noopener">Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Black Sesame Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Losses Remain Wide and Suffers from a Concentration Risk

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/black-sesame-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39894:1" rel="noopener">Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Black Sesame Pre-IPO - The Positives - Catering to a Growing Demand for Automotive Automation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Driven by recovery in offline activities and a low base, Baidu’s advertising business is on track to deliver steady recovery in 2Q23, in our view.</li><li>Cloud business revenue growth re-acceleration could take time, due to softness in demand and strategically focusing more on quality growth.</li><li>We lowered our SOTP based target price by 2% to US$195.0 mainly to account for slower than expected recovery for cloud revenue growth.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Driven by recovery in offline activities and a low base, Baidu’s advertising business is on track to deliver steady recovery in 2Q23, in our view.Cloud business revenue growth re-acceleration could take time, due to softness in demand and strategically focusing more on quality growth.We lowered our SOTP based target price by 2% to US$195.0 mainly to account for slower than expected recovery for cloud revenue growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Baidu (BIDU US) – Recovery of Advertising Business on Track

<ul>
<li>We estimate Baidu's ads revenue growth in 2Q23 will be 10.8% YoY. We largely cut our forecast of 3Q23’s ads revenue growth from 14.7% to 7.1%.</li>
<li>We lower Baidu's core other revenue growth in 2Q23 from 18.0% to 9.0% YoY. Baidu’s smart transportation AI cloud business has been affected by the contraction in local government expenses.</li>
<li>We expect Baidu's 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (2.3%)/ (1.9%) vs cons, also cut the TP to $162, which implies 16.5X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


We estimate Baidu's ads revenue growth in 2Q23 will be 10.8% YoY. We largely cut our forecast of 3Q23’s ads revenue growth from 14.7% to 7.1%.
We lower Baidu's core other revenue growth in 2Q23 from 18.0% to 9.0% YoY. Baidu’s smart transportation AI cloud business has been affected by the contraction in local government expenses.
We expect Baidu's 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (2.3%)/ (1.9%) vs cons, also cut the TP to $162, which implies 16.5X PE in 2023.


[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$162) TP Change]: Cut TP Due to Weaker Outlook in Ads and Cloud

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

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Baidu (BIDU US)

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet

We estimate that ByteDance's domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year. We prefer Tencent, iQiyi,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Black Sesame Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Losses Remain Wide and Suffers from a Concentration Risk

Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not...

Clarence Chu

Black Sesame Pre-IPO - The Positives - Catering to a Growing Demand for Automotive Automation

Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Clarence Chu

Baidu (BIDU US) – Recovery of Advertising Business on Track

Driven by recovery in offline activities and a low base, Baidu’s advertising business is on track to deliver steady recovery in 2Q23, in our view.

CMB International

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$162) TP Change]: Cut TP Due to Weaker Outlook in Ads and Cloud

We expect Baidu's 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (2.3%)/ (1.9%) vs cons, also cut the TP to $162, which implies 16.5X PE in 2023

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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