IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.</li>
<li>A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.</li>
<li>The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Abacus Property (ABP AU) has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.
A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.
The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.


Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

National Storage REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a> (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.</li>
<li>Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.
Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

Australian Unity Office Fund / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-unity-office-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24077:1" rel="noopener">Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU)</a> has extended Aliro's exclusive due diligence to 15 July. Shares slid 1.8% on concerns of Aliro lowering the offer or walking away. </li>
<li>Encouragingly, Aliro confirmed its intention to pursue the proposal at a price not lower than the offer price and will return with an updated proposal within two weeks.</li>
<li>The offer price (including Sep distribution) of A$2.465 is 14.7% above the last close. The downside is low as the shares are trading in line with the dividend-adjusted unaffected price. </li>
</ul>



Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) has extended Aliro's exclusive due diligence to 15 July. Shares slid 1.8% on concerns of Aliro lowering the offer or walking away. 
Encouragingly, Aliro confirmed its intention to pursue the proposal at a price not lower than the offer price and will return with an updated proposal within two weeks.
The offer price (including Sep distribution) of A$2.465 is 14.7% above the last close. The downside is low as the shares are trading in line with the dividend-adjusted unaffected price. 


AOF Trading at the Dividend-Adjusted Unaffected Price

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-unity-office-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24077:1" rel="noopener">Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU)</a> which has had a “for sale” sign up has disclosed an indicative privatisation proposal from Aliro Group, at A$2.45 per unit + permitted distributions. </li>
<li>Hume Partners, the largest unitholder, will vote in favour of the scheme in the absence of a superior offer. However, a relatively concentrated shareholder register poses a risk.</li>
<li>AOF's ongoing engagement with various parties suggests the possibility of a counterbid and/or a bump to Aliro Group’s underwhelming offer.</li>
</ul>



Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) which has had a “for sale” sign up has disclosed an indicative privatisation proposal from Aliro Group, at A$2.45 per unit + permitted distributions. 
Hume Partners, the largest unitholder, will vote in favour of the scheme in the absence of a superior offer. However, a relatively concentrated shareholder register poses a risk.
AOF's ongoing engagement with various parties suggests the possibility of a counterbid and/or a bump to Aliro Group’s underwhelming offer.


AOF’s Efforts to Maximise Value Draws an Offer from Aliro Group

<ul>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval from shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB, OIO, SARB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 29 June. </li>
<li>We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 15 July implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 1.4% and 9.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the offer for Irongate Group (IAP AU) to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.
The key condition is approval from shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB, OIO, SARB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 29 June. 
We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 15 July implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 1.4% and 9.2%, respectively.


Irongate’s Scheme Meeting on 29 June, IE’s Opinion

Australia

Centuria Capital Group (CNI) is an ASX-listed specialist investment manager. Investments offered include listed and unlisted property funds as well as investment bonds. The company is located in Australia.

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Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP AU)

Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. Our SoTP valuation is...

Arun George

National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement. In this note, we run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

AOF Trading at the Dividend-Adjusted Unaffected Price

Aliro will return with an updated proposal within two weeks. Risk/reward favourable as the upside (14.7% to the offer + Sep div) exceeds the likely...

Arun George

AOF’s Efforts to Maximise Value Draws an Offer from Aliro Group

Aliro Group has lobbed an underwhelming offer of A$2.45 per unit + permitted distributions. AOF's ongoing engagement with various parties suggests...

Arun George

Irongate’s Scheme Meeting on 29 June, IE’s Opinion

The IE considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. At the last close price and for the 15 July implementation date, the annualised spread is 9.2%.

Arun George

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