Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Having reached a 30 year high of 4% in December 2022, which is two times the BOJ’s target, Japanese companies are finding it hard to absorb cost inflation.</li>
<li>This macro environment presents an opportunity to appreciate the few Japanese Food and Beverages companies that have managed to maintain average pricing growth even in a deflationary environment.</li>
<li>With a lasting pricing-power and a relatively inelastic demand than competitors, we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12548:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP)</a> are in a great position to outperform competition. </li>
</ul>


Having reached a 30 year high of 4% in December 2022, which is two times the BOJ’s target, Japanese companies are finding it hard to absorb cost inflation.
This macro environment presents an opportunity to appreciate the few Japanese Food and Beverages companies that have managed to maintain average pricing growth even in a deflationary environment.
With a lasting pricing-power and a relatively inelastic demand than competitors, we think Yakult Honsha (2267 JP) and Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP) are in a great position to outperform competition. 


Japan Consumer Staples Sector : Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>In our previous note, link <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-high-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>,  we spoke about the positive aspects of the deal. In this note we will talk about the negative aspects</li>
</ul>


PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.
It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. 
In our previous note, link here,  we spoke about the positive aspects of the deal. In this note we will talk about the negative aspects


Cisarua Mountain Dairy  (Cimory) IPO - The Negatives - Losing Market Share, Margin Sustainability

<ul>
<li>PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO. </li>
<li>It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>In addition, the company also has a presence in the flavored milk segment, fresh white milk segment, chilled processed meat and frozen processed meat sub-categories.</li>
</ul>


PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO. 
It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. 
In addition, the company also has a presence in the flavored milk segment, fresh white milk segment, chilled processed meat and frozen processed meat sub-categories.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy  (Cimory) IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, High Market Share

Japan

YAKULT HONSHA CO., LTD produces and sells fermented milk products, soft drinks and food products.  The Company also manufactures pharmaceutical and cosmetic products.  Through its subsidiary, the professional baseball team, Tokyo Yakult Swallows is owned and managed.

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Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)

Japan Consumer Staples Sector : Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

This inflationary environment presents an opportunity to appreciate the few Japanese Food and Beverages companies that have managed to maintain...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

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