Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21096" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21096:1">Asm International Nv (ASM NA)</a> trading at an extreme level to ~25%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15061" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1">Asm Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>, is now the time to go long WFE?
I also briefly discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11074" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a> after underperforming 60.9%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a> following the release of its 1Q19 results.
Preceding my comments on ASM and Takara are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.

This week, with Asm International Nv (ASM NA) trading at an extreme level to ~25%-held Asm Pacific Technology (522 HK), is now the time to go long WFE?
I also briefly discussed Takara Holdings (2531 JP) after underperforming 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) following the release of its 1Q19 results.
Preceding my comments on ASM and Takara are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.

StubWorld: The Demand for ASM Intl's Front-End; Takara's Spending for Spending's Sake

Asia Long-Short PM/Analyst

Curtis Lehnert

'Sushi and sake, from Japan to the world', might as well be the motto of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11074" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a>.  As a leading maker of sake and shochu in Japan with a booming international Japanese food and beverage business, Takara Holdings is focused on spreading high quality Japanese beverages and ingredients around the world.  
The company has been on a multi-year growth leg that continues to the present and I would argue, into the future.  But, after an earnings announcement that brought the share price tumbling down 15% the core food and beverage business is trading at a multi-year low, more than 2 standard deviations below its long-term average and to a discount to NAV of 25%.  
In this insight, I will detail:
<ul>
<li>The Trade and How to Position for a Win</li>
<li>An In-Depth Look at the Business, Products and Growth Drivers </li>
</ul>

'Sushi and sake, from Japan to the world', might as well be the motto of Takara Holdings (2531 JP).  As a leading maker of sake and shochu in Japan with a booming international Japanese food and beverage business, Takara Holdings is focused on spreading high quality Japanese beverages and ingredients around the world.  
The company has been on a multi-year growth leg that continues to the present and I would argue, into the future.  But, after an earnings announcement that brought the share price tumbling down 15% the core food and beverage business is trading at a multi-year low, more than 2 standard deviations below its long-term average and to a discount to NAV of 25%.  
In this insight, I will detail:

The Trade and How to Position for a Win
An In-Depth Look at the Business, Products and Growth Drivers 


Takara Holdings (2531 JP) Stub: Sashimi Rollin', They Hatin'

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Off-trade sales of RTD tea increased by 3% in current value terms to reach JPY1,519.4 billion and increased by 4% in volume terms to reach 6,490 million litres in 2017.</li><li>RTD tea reached its largest size ever in 2017, supported by consumers’ growing health awareness.</li><li>On-trade sales of RTD tea declined by 1% in both volume and current value terms in 2017, to JPY77.1 billion and 131 million litres.</li><li>ITO EN maintained its lead in RTD tea in 2017, with a 28% retail volume share.</li><li>Over the forecast period RTD tea will record off-trade CAGRs of 3% in both volume terms and at constant 2017 prices to reach JPY1,743.4 billion and 7,531 million litres in 2022.</li></ul>

Off-trade sales of RTD tea increased by 3% in current value terms to reach JPY1,519.4 billion and increased by 4% in volume terms to reach 6,490 million litres in 2017.RTD tea reached its largest size ever in 2017, supported by consumers’ growing health awareness.On-trade sales of RTD tea declined by 1% in both volume and current value terms in 2017, to JPY77.1 billion and 131 million litres.ITO EN maintained its lead in RTD tea in 2017, with a 28% retail volume share.Over the forecast period RTD tea will record off-trade CAGRs of 3% in both volume terms and at constant 2017 prices to reach JPY1,743.4 billion and 7,531 million litres in 2022.

Sector Capsule: Rtd (Ready to Drink) Tea in Japan

Japan

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

StubWorld: The Demand for ASM Intl's Front-End; Takara's Spending for Spending's Sake

This week, with Asm International Nv (ASM NA) trading at an extreme level to ~25%-held Asm Pacific Technology (522 HK), is now the time to go long...

David Blennerhassett

Takara Holdings (2531 JP) Stub: Sashimi Rollin', They Hatin'

'Sushi and sake, from Japan to the world', might as well be the motto of Takara Holdings (2531 JP). As a leading maker of sake and shochu in Japan...

Curtis Lehnert

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh...

Campbell Gunn

Sector Capsule: Rtd (Ready to Drink) Tea in Japan

Off-trade sales of RTD tea increased by 3% in current value terms to reach JPY1,519.4 billion and increased by 4% in volume terms to reach 6,490...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)