Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Indian smartphone exports boosted by iPhone makers as Xiphera introduces quantum security improvements in crypto solutions</li><li>Ola Electric pioneers solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, while SK Hynix invests $75 billion to dominate HBM Market for AI Chips</li><li>China nationalizes rare earth resources as airlines struggle with high costs to achieve sustainable fuel goals, Foxconn denies mistreating married women in India</li></ul>

Indian smartphone exports boosted by iPhone makers as Xiphera introduces quantum security improvements in crypto solutionsOla Electric pioneers solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, while SK Hynix invests $75 billion to dominate HBM Market for AI ChipsChina nationalizes rare earth resources as airlines struggle with high costs to achieve sustainable fuel goals, Foxconn denies mistreating married women in India

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Jul-2024): India boosts smartphone exports with iPhone manufacturers.

<ul><li>Samsung and LG are launching new gaming and AI-focused monitors to take advantage of the recovering market.</li><li>Tata Elxsi is collaborating with Arm on self-driving vehicle solutions, while Saudi fund considers cutting ties with China for US chips and AI.</li><li>Samsung and SK Hynix are competing in the HBM market, driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory solutions. Toyota plans to invest JPY2 trillion in supply chain, EV, and SDV, with Tata making progress in semiconductor manufacturing.</li></ul>

Samsung and LG are launching new gaming and AI-focused monitors to take advantage of the recovering market.Tata Elxsi is collaborating with Arm on self-driving vehicle solutions, while Saudi fund considers cutting ties with China for US chips and AI.Samsung and SK Hynix are competing in the HBM market, driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory solutions. Toyota plans to invest JPY2 trillion in supply chain, EV, and SDV, with Tata making progress in semiconductor manufacturing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-May-2024): Samsung and LG launch new gaming/ AI monitors in market recovery.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.</li>
<li>While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.</li>
<li>I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.


The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Jul-2024): India boosts smartphone exports with iPhone manufacturers.

India's smartphone exports increase thanks to iPhone makers, Xiphera advances quantum security, Ola Electric leads in solid-state batteries, SK...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-May-2024): Samsung and LG launch new gaming/ AI monitors in market recovery.

Samsung, LG, Tata, Arm, Saudi fund, SK Hynix, and Toyota are all making strategic moves in gaming monitors, self-driving vehicles, semiconductor...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Jul-2024): India boosts smartphone exports with iPhone manufacturers.

India's smartphone exports increase thanks to iPhone makers, Xiphera advances quantum security, Ola Electric leads in solid-state batteries, SK...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-May-2024): Samsung and LG launch new gaming/ AI monitors in market recovery.

Samsung, LG, Tata, Arm, Saudi fund, SK Hynix, and Toyota are all making strategic moves in gaming monitors, self-driving vehicles, semiconductor...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...