Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
”Restricted Default”: After missing two bond coupon payments, Fitch Ratings referred to China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] as being in “restricted default”;</li>
<li>
Civil Litigation: Mainland Chinese creditors have filed 367 civil lawsuits with an aggregate claims value of USD 13.2 bn for overdue payments, as they compete with offshore bondholders; and</li>
<li>
Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.</li>
</ul>



”Restricted Default”: After missing two bond coupon payments, Fitch Ratings referred to China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] as being in “restricted default”;

Civil Litigation: Mainland Chinese creditors have filed 367 civil lawsuits with an aggregate claims value of USD 13.2 bn for overdue payments, as they compete with offshore bondholders; and

Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.


China Evergrande Group – Bank Fallout Coming

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/china-south-city-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Lifestyle International Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Geely Auto</a></li><li><a href='/entities/kaisa-group-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kaisa Group Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:China South CityChina Jinmao HoldingsLifestyle International HoldingsGeely AutoKaisa Group Holdingsand more...

Shimao Property Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Liquidity Crisis:Shimao’s ability to cover short-term liquidity needs are very real, as it does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap;  </li>
<li>
Other Nuggets From Auditor: PWC suggests material valuation concerns exacerbate fundamental risks; and</li>
<li>
Left Holding The Bag:We have very little confidence that HSBC Holdings Plc (5.HK) and Bank of Communications (3328.HK) have marked their Shimao financings as NPL. Watch your bank risk.</li>
</ul>



Liquidity Crisis:Shimao’s ability to cover short-term liquidity needs are very real, as it does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap;  

Other Nuggets From Auditor: PWC suggests material valuation concerns exacerbate fundamental risks; and

Left Holding The Bag:We have very little confidence that HSBC Holdings Plc (5.HK) and Bank of Communications (3328.HK) have marked their Shimao financings as NPL. Watch your bank risk.


Shimao Property Holdings – Here We Go Again

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - December 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Less than a week after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaisa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:169:1" rel="noopener">Kaisa (1638 HK)</a> were officially declared defaulters,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property (813 HK)</a>'s bonds and shares plunged, as did <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-services-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29199:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Services (873 HK)</a>'s shares. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-services-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29239:1" rel="noopener">Sunac Services (1516 HK)</a> is the second-worst worst performing property services play over the past week/month.  Separately, parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac (1918 HK)</a> recently sold &gt;US$1bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-beiken-energy-eng-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29381:1" rel="noopener">Beiken Energy (002828 CH)</a> shares. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-service-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34884:1" rel="noopener">First Service (2107 HK)</a>'s long stop date for the share transfer agreements expire at month-end. This may not be the ideal time to second-guess whether Sunac agrees to an extension. </li>
</ul>


Less than a week after Evergrande (3333 HK) and Kaisa (1638 HK) were officially declared defaulters,  Shimao Property (813 HK)'s bonds and shares plunged, as did Shimao Services (873 HK)'s shares. 

Sunac Services (1516 HK) is the second-worst worst performing property services play over the past week/month.  Separately, parent Sunac (1918 HK) recently sold &gt;US$1bn of Beiken Energy (002828 CH) shares. 

First Service (2107 HK)'s long stop date for the share transfer agreements expire at month-end. This may not be the ideal time to second-guess whether Sunac agrees to an extension. 


First Service (2107 HK): Too Hot To Handle

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

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Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)

China Evergrande Group – Bank Fallout Coming

EVERGRANDE: Fitch declared Evergrande in “restricted default”. 367 civil actions have been filed, as they compete with offshore bondholders. Most...

Thomas J. Monaco

Weekly Wrap - 17 Dec 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Shimao Property Holdings – Here We Go Again

SHIMAO PROPERTY: Shimao, in our view, does not have the wherewithal to bridge the short-term funding gap. Further, the auditor suggests that...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia HY Trade Book - December 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

First Service (2107 HK): Too Hot To Handle

I expect these share transfer agreements to be extended, if need be, and the spread to tighten once completed. But that outcome is by no means...

David Blennerhassett

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