Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to <em><strong>Consumer Tales &amp; Trends</strong></em>, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s proposed swap deal with promoter company raises several questions for shareholders. Start with the back story about how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave (FNN SP)</a> joined the group.</li>
<li>Bigger weddings could become a trend in India - Read why we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalyan-jewellers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29714:1" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers(KALYANKJ IN)</a> . Also, household debt in Thailand as % of GDP is highest in ASEAN.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s proposed swap deal with promoter company raises several questions for shareholders. Start with the back story about how Fraser And Neave (FNN SP) joined the group.
Bigger weddings could become a trend in India - Read why we like Kalyan Jewellers(KALYANKJ IN) . Also, household debt in Thailand as % of GDP is highest in ASEAN.


Consumer Tales & Trends #July 11-20: THBEV SP Swap Deal, Bad Debts in Thailand, AI in Beauty.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> has underperformed its Singapore peers and the drop in market cap could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> has traded higher since end October and there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume on the stock since then.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> trades richer than its closest peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a>, on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA. The recent outperformance presents a trading opportunity.</li>
</ul>



UOL Group (UOL SP) has underperformed its Singapore peers and the drop in market cap could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in February.

UOL Group (UOL SP) has traded higher since end October and there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume on the stock since then.

UOL Group (UOL SP) trades richer than its closest peer, City Developments (CIT SP), on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA. The recent outperformance presents a trading opportunity.


UOL Group (UOL SP): At Risk of Passive Selling in February

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Frasers Centrepoint Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> aims to raise around US$152m in order to partly fund its purchase of an additional stake in NEX mall.</li>
<li>The company had purchased its initial stake in the property nearly a year ago.</li>
<li>In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) aims to raise around US$152m in order to partly fund its purchase of an additional stake in NEX mall.
The company had purchased its initial stake in the property nearly a year ago.
In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Frasers Centrepoint Trust Placement - Relative Large Dilution for Smallish Accretion

Mapletree Logistics Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) plans to raise around US$150 (S$200m) to partially fund the acquisition of logistics properties in Japan, Australia and South Korea.</li>
<li>We have earlier covered the previous six placements for the REIT since 2017. Most of the past deals have done well except for the two most recent ones.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) plans to raise around US$150 (S$200m) to partially fund the acquisition of logistics properties in Japan, Australia and South Korea.
We have earlier covered the previous six placements for the REIT since 2017. Most of the past deals have done well except for the two most recent ones.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.


MLT Placement - Small Deal but Recent Deals Didn’t Do Well

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>’s scheme just fell shy of clearing the value test as 74.88% of the total votes cast approved the scheme resolution vs the 75% requirement.</li>
<li>The shares were trading tight to terms as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1670:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP)</a>’s offer of S$0.714 comprising of S$0.70 cash per share + permitted distributions (estimated 1.356 cents) was attractive.  </li>
<li>We estimate that the surprising deal break will likely lead to a 15-20% share price fall. The last close price is around 24% higher than the undisturbed price (S$0.57).</li>
</ul>



Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)’s scheme just fell shy of clearing the value test as 74.88% of the total votes cast approved the scheme resolution vs the 75% requirement.
The shares were trading tight to terms as Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP)’s offer of S$0.714 comprising of S$0.70 cash per share + permitted distributions (estimated 1.356 cents) was attractive.  
We estimate that the surprising deal break will likely lead to a 15-20% share price fall. The last close price is around 24% higher than the undisturbed price (S$0.57).


Frasers Hospitality Trust’s Scheme Votes Unexpectedly Falls Short

Singapore

Frasers Property Limited provides real estate ownership and development services. The Company engages in the development of land, housing projects, apartments, as well as commercial, industrial, and retail properties. Frasers Property serves customers globally.

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Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP)

Consumer Tales & Trends #July 11-20: THBEV SP Swap Deal, Bad Debts in Thailand, AI in Beauty.

This week's update covers Thai Beverage's proposed swap deal, India's marriage spending boom, Thailand's household debt crisis, and AI innovations...

Devi Subhakesan

UOL Group (UOL SP): At Risk of Passive Selling in February

UOL Group could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February and trackers will need to sell 16x ADV. UOL Group has outperformed City Dev...

Brian Freitas

Frasers Centrepoint Trust Placement - Relative Large Dilution for Smallish Accretion

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) aims to raise around US$152m in order to partly fund its purchase of an additional stake in NEX mall.

Sumeet Singh

MLT Placement - Small Deal but Recent Deals Didn’t Do Well

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) plans to raise around US$150 (S$200m) to partially fund the acquisition of logistics properties in Japan,...

Sumeet Singh

Frasers Hospitality Trust’s Scheme Votes Unexpectedly Falls Short

The scheme failed to clear the 75% scheme resolution voting requirement. We estimate that the surprising deal break will likely lead to a 15-20%...

Arun George

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