Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>During 4Q2023, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +10.1%y/y, significantly up from the +3.5% reported during 3Q2023.</li>
<li>63% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 55% delivered positive Sales surprises, continuing the reacceleration trend witnessed during 2023.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


During 4Q2023, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +10.1%y/y, significantly up from the +3.5% reported during 3Q2023.
63% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 55% delivered positive Sales surprises, continuing the reacceleration trend witnessed during 2023.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2023

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners are Kotak, Citigroup, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Axis, ICICI Sec, SBI Caps, BoB Caps.</li>
<li>Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.</li>
<li>The firm manufactures EVs and certain core EV components like battery packs, motors and vehicle frames.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (1700674D IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners are Kotak, Citigroup, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Axis, ICICI Sec, SBI Caps, BoB Caps.
Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
The firm manufactures EVs and certain core EV components like battery packs, motors and vehicle frames.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning continue through 2023.</li>
<li>BYD Company most widely held but stabilizing; Li Auto sees increased buying. Sector 7th most owned, underweight by -0.85%.</li>
<li>Rising Allocations, Low Historical Positioning and Net Underweight Suggest Potential Continued Demand for Auto Stocks</li>
</ul>


Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning continue through 2023.
BYD Company most widely held but stabilizing; Li Auto sees increased buying. Sector 7th most owned, underweight by -0.85%.
Rising Allocations, Low Historical Positioning and Net Underweight Suggest Potential Continued Demand for Auto Stocks


Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We recently visited a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>  showroom in Ahmedabad, with the objective of understanding the preference for Electric Vehicles in India.</li>
<li>Pitched as the "Tata" of China, BYD offers 2 models ATTO 3 and e6 in India. </li>
<li>Considering <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> India interest, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> big bet on EV, BYD's current operations in India seem to be minuscule and may find little success.</li>
</ul>


We recently visited a BYD (1211 HK)  showroom in Ahmedabad, with the objective of understanding the preference for Electric Vehicles in India.
Pitched as the "Tata" of China, BYD offers 2 models ATTO 3 and e6 in India. 
Considering Tesla Motors (TSLA US) India interest, and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) big bet on EV, BYD's current operations in India seem to be minuscule and may find little success.


BYD (1211 HK) | Takeaways from India Showroom Visit | "Tata" Of China

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> possible H Share buyback offer, excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-marine-cntnrs-gp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11752:1" rel="noopener">China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)</a>’s shares, is HK$7.00, an 8.7% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There could also be a 90% minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “<em>same or better terms</em>”, suggesting a potential bump.</li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) possible H Share buyback offer, excluding China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)’s shares, is HK$7.00, an 8.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There could also be a 90% minimum acceptance condition.
The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or better terms”, suggesting a potential bump.


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Possible H Share Buyback Offer

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. manufactures automobiles, farm equipment and automotive components. The Company's automobile products include light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, jeep type vehicles and passenger cars. Mahindra & Mahindra also manufactures agricultural tractors, agricultural implements, internal combustion engines, industrial petrol engines, spare parts and machine tools.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Ola Electric Mobility Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Ola Electric (1700674D IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The firm is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India...

Clarence Chu

Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning from active funds continue through 2023.

Steven Holden

BYD (1211 HK) | Takeaways from India Showroom Visit | "Tata" Of China

BYD's presence in India's electric vehicle market may struggle to gain traction compared to Tesla and Mahindra & Mahindra due to its limited...

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Ola Electric Mobility Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Ola Electric (1700674D IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The firm is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India...

Clarence Chu

Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning from active funds continue through 2023.

Steven Holden

BYD (1211 HK) | Takeaways from India Showroom Visit | "Tata" Of China

​BYD's presence in India's electric vehicle market may struggle to gain traction compared to Tesla and Mahindra & Mahindra due to its limited...

Pranav Bhavsar

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Possible H Share Buyback Offer

The offer is light, but independent H shareholders holding blocking stakes will likely be supportive. The final offer will be made on “same or...

Arun George

BYD's presence in India's electric vehicle market may struggle to gain traction compared to Tesla and Mahindra & Mahindra due to its limited...