Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We challenge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> 's narrative of strong demand and booking pipeline (140k+ open bookings, excl Scorpio N as of Q1 FY23) </li>
<li>There is a possibility of a monthly booking rate of 10.3k for XUV700 and 5K per month for Thar being overstated. </li>
<li>With increasing competition (MSIL + Toyota), cancellations will increase leading to even lower waiting periods and a reduced booking pipeline. </li>
</ul>


We challenge Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) 's narrative of strong demand and booking pipeline (140k+ open bookings, excl Scorpio N as of Q1 FY23) 
There is a possibility of a monthly booking rate of 10.3k for XUV700 and 5K per month for Thar being overstated. 
With increasing competition (MSIL + Toyota), cancellations will increase leading to even lower waiting periods and a reduced booking pipeline. 


Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | The Bookings Fallacy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> has announced a Scheme of Arrangement where all the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> shares will be cancelled.</li>
<li>For every 10 shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> held, shareholders will receive 7 shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>. </li>
<li>The process is expected to take 12-15 months to complete and there will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> at the end of it.</li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) has announced a Scheme of Arrangement where all the Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) shares will be cancelled.
For every 10 shares of Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) held, shareholders will receive 7 shares of Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN). 
The process is expected to take 12-15 months to complete and there will be passive buying in Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) at the end of it.


Tata Motors (TTMT IN) - Goodbye to the DVR Arb

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We spoke with multiple channels covering 3Ws, 2Ws, and 4Ws to understand the current dynamics of the Electric Vehicle (EV) scene in India.</li>
<li>Adoption of E-3 and E-4 Wheelers is hindered by high prices, range issues, inadequate charging infrastructure, and platform stability concerns.</li>
<li>E-2 Wheelers show resilience with stable sales led by aggressive pricing from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We spoke with multiple channels covering 3Ws, 2Ws, and 4Ws to understand the current dynamics of the Electric Vehicle (EV) scene in India.
Adoption of E-3 and E-4 Wheelers is hindered by high prices, range issues, inadequate charging infrastructure, and platform stability concerns.
E-2 Wheelers show resilience with stable sales led by aggressive pricing from Ola Electric (1700674D IN). 


India Channel Insight | What Is the EV Scene in India?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Hyundai Motor India  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India</a>. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.</li>
<li>HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.


Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Doesn’t Stand Out

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a>, a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co-44d5ac4e-94e3-4be9-b34f-5f3155e7a3d6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26936:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor (005385 KS)</a>, aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hyundai-motor-india-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:151701" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on market share losses in the key SUV sub-segment, bottom-quartile revenue growth, higher royalty rates and dividends to Hyundai ahead of the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor (005385 KS), aims to raise up to US$3.0 billion at a valuation of US$17 billion.
In Hyundai Motor India IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on market share losses in the key SUV sub-segment, bottom-quartile revenue growth, higher royalty rates and dividends to Hyundai ahead of the IPO.


India

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. manufactures automobiles, farm equipment and automotive components. The Company's automobile products include light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, jeep type vehicles and passenger cars. Mahindra & Mahindra also manufactures agricultural tractors, agricultural implements, internal combustion engines, industrial petrol engines, spare parts and machine tools.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)