Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>) are currently at an all-time low.</li>
<li>The market is assigning US$1.2bn less for the stub ops subsequent to the announcement and completion of tower sales in Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, and Italy.</li>
<li>CKH's business diversification, both by geography and segment, continues to provide a strong and stable cashflow.</li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)) are currently at an all-time low.
The market is assigning US$1.2bn less for the stub ops subsequent to the announcement and completion of tower sales in Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, and Italy.
CKH's business diversification, both by geography and segment, continues to provide a strong and stable cashflow.


2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

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After rejecting two earlier proposals, Aussie poles and wires company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spark-infrastructure-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:595:1" rel="noopener">Spark Infrastructure (SKI AU)</a> entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02409984-2A1317108?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">23 August</a> with KKR, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and Public Sector Pension Investment Board.
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The Offer Price of $2.95 cash per stapled security comprised cash of $2.7675, plus Spark's 1H21 interim distribution of 6.25¢, plus a franked special distribution expected of ~12¢. The interim dividend was announced on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02390377-2A1306991?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1 July</a> and went ex on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02390377-2A1306991?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7 July</a>, with a record date of the 8 July, therefore the implied Scheme Consideration is A$2.8875/share.
The Scheme Booklet has now been <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02438132-2A1332160?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispatched</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 22 November, with an expected implementation date on the 22 December. The Independent Expert has concluded that "the Schemes are fair and reasonable and in the best interests of Scheme Securityholders, in the absence of a superior proposal".
This looks done and has not once closed through terms. The Offer remains subject to FIRB approval.
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After rejecting two earlier proposals, Aussie poles and wires company Spark Infrastructure (SKI AU) entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement on the 23 August with KKR, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and Public Sector Pension Investment Board.


The Offer Price of $2.95 cash per stapled security comprised cash of $2.7675, plus Spark's 1H21 interim distribution of 6.25¢, plus a franked special distribution expected of ~12¢. The interim dividend was announced on the 1 July and went ex on the 7 July, with a record date of the 8 July, therefore the implied Scheme Consideration is A$2.8875/share.
The Scheme Booklet has now been dispatched. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 22 November, with an expected implementation date on the 22 December. The Independent Expert has concluded that "the Schemes are fair and reasonable and in the best interests of Scheme Securityholders, in the absence of a superior proposal".
This looks done and has not once closed through terms. The Offer remains subject to FIRB approval.


Spark (SKI AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 22 November

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Yesterday Victorian electricity operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">AusNet Services (AST AU)</a>  <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02423286-3A576179?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it would open its books to Brookfield after receiving a revised non-binding Offer of A$2.50/share. It is understood Brookfield made a A$2.35/share Offer on the 30 August, followed by $2.45/share, before all parties settled on $2.50/share.
As it turns out, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apa-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18658:1" rel="noopener">APA Group (APA AU)</a>, APA had approached AusNet with a non-binding proposal of A$2.32 on the 1 September, and that APA had made AusNet aware last Thursday (16 September) it intended to make a revised proposal.
APA sounded out AusNet’s major shareholders prior to its initial approach, and that APA understood Singapore Power was supportive of APA and AusNet engaging in discussions. APA had also discussed the initial proposal directly with State Grid. 
Seems someone didn't get the memo.
<blockquote>
APA is disappointed that AusNet has purported to enter into a period of exclusivity with Brookfield for effectively eight weeks, notwithstanding AusNet’s knowledge of the pending revised, and potentially superior proposal, from APA.
</blockquote>
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The "superior proposal", <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02423895-2A1324638?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> this morning, is a non-binding indicative Offer by way of a Scheme for A$2.60/share in cash and scrip.
Apart from the higher price, APA's Offer enables AusNet shareholders to participate in the back-end via APA scrip, plus there is no FIRB conditionality.
In addition, APA would only require 4 weeks of due diligence, compared to seven to eight weeks for Brookfield.
For now, APA will have to sit tight until the completion of Brookfield's exclusive due diligence. APA's proposal is conditional on AusNet granting due diligence access by the 28 September. 
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More below the fold.
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Yesterday Victorian electricity operator AusNet Services (AST AU)  announced it would open its books to Brookfield after receiving a revised non-binding Offer of A$2.50/share. It is understood Brookfield made a A$2.35/share Offer on the 30 August, followed by $2.45/share, before all parties settled on $2.50/share.
As it turns out, according to APA Group (APA AU), APA had approached AusNet with a non-binding proposal of A$2.32 on the 1 September, and that APA had made AusNet aware last Thursday (16 September) it intended to make a revised proposal.
APA sounded out AusNet’s major shareholders prior to its initial approach, and that APA understood Singapore Power was supportive of APA and AusNet engaging in discussions. APA had also discussed the initial proposal directly with State Grid. 
Seems someone didn't get the memo.

APA is disappointed that AusNet has purported to enter into a period of exclusivity with Brookfield for effectively eight weeks, notwithstanding AusNet’s knowledge of the pending revised, and potentially superior proposal, from APA.



The "superior proposal", announced this morning, is a non-binding indicative Offer by way of a Scheme for A$2.60/share in cash and scrip.
Apart from the higher price, APA's Offer enables AusNet shareholders to participate in the back-end via APA scrip, plus there is no FIRB conditionality.
In addition, APA would only require 4 weeks of due diligence, compared to seven to eight weeks for Brookfield.
For now, APA will have to sit tight until the completion of Brookfield's exclusive due diligence. APA's proposal is conditional on AusNet granting due diligence access by the 28 September. 


More below the fold.


AusNet Services (AST AU): Spurned APA Trumps Brookfield's Proposal

Victorian electricity operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">AusNet Services (AST AU)</a> has <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02423286-3A576179?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it will open its books to Brookfield after receiving a revised non-binding Offer of A$2.50/share, up from A$2.35 initially. The cash consideration will be reduced to the extent of any dividends paid. 
The due diligence is on an exclusive basis. If a firm Offer is tabled, AusNet's board will unanimously recommend the proposal to its shareholders.
A firm bid will be subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. Neither Singapore Power nor China's State Grid  - AusNet's two largest shareholders - have made their intentions known as to the proposal.
<blockquote>
Following careful consideration, and consultation with its advisers, the board of AusNet considers that it is in the best interests of AusNet’s shareholders to engage further with Brookfield on the indicative proposal.
</blockquote>
The Offer price is full. Assuming Singapore Power and the State Grid are supportive, this is a done deal.
More below the fold.

Victorian electricity operator AusNet Services (AST AU) has announced it will open its books to Brookfield after receiving a revised non-binding Offer of A$2.50/share, up from A$2.35 initially. The cash consideration will be reduced to the extent of any dividends paid. 
The due diligence is on an exclusive basis. If a firm Offer is tabled, AusNet's board will unanimously recommend the proposal to its shareholders.
A firm bid will be subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. Neither Singapore Power nor China's State Grid  - AusNet's two largest shareholders - have made their intentions known as to the proposal.

Following careful consideration, and consultation with its advisers, the board of AusNet considers that it is in the best interests of AusNet’s shareholders to engage further with Brookfield on the indicative proposal.

The Offer price is full. Assuming Singapore Power and the State Grid are supportive, this is a done deal.
More below the fold.

AusNet Services (AST AU) Opens Its Books to Brookfield

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

The upcoming rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> will be implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. The rebalance will use data from todays close to cap the stocks in the index at a maximum of 8% of the index weight.In this Insight, we show the flows after capping stocks using the close on 30 August. The final numbers will be marginally different based on todays closing prices.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> there are 3 inclusions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-glass-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11940:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> and 1 exclusion - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a>.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> there is one set of changes with Trip.com (9961 HK) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koolearn-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">Koolearn (1797 HK)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s weight in all 3 indices is higher than 8% following the increase in the number of index shares at the July monthly rebalance. The stock will have the largest passive selling due to capping back to 8%.Capping and float changes will lead to passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, while there will be passive selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>.There will be selling on a lot of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents due to funding flows.

The upcoming rebalances for the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) will be implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. The rebalance will use data from todays close to cap the stocks in the index at a maximum of 8% of the index weight.In this Insight, we show the flows after capping stocks using the close on 30 August. The final numbers will be marginally different based on todays closing prices.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) there are 3 inclusions - Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) and 1 exclusion - Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK).For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), the inclusions are JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) while the deletions are Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK).For the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) there is one set of changes with Trip.com (9961 HK) / Trip.com (TCOM US) replacing Koolearn (1797 HK).Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s weight in all 3 indices is higher than 8% following the increase in the number of index shares at the July monthly rebalance. The stock will have the largest passive selling due to capping back to 8%.Capping and float changes will lead to passive buying on Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), while there will be passive selling on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and HKEX (388 HK).There will be selling on a lot of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents due to funding flows.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited (CKI) operates as a real assets investment company. The Company invests in energy, transportation, water, and electricity generation sectors. CKI serves customers worldwide.

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CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)

2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

C KH is inexpensive, versus historical levels, and when compared to peers. Net of CKI, the marker is assigning HK$9bn less for the stubs ops after...

David Blennerhassett

Spark (SKI AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 22 November

Trading tight at a 1.5%/9.1% gross/annualised spread. Looks reasonable. If you are a zero-rate taxpayer, or a low-rate payer, who can reclaim the...

David Blennerhassett

AusNet Services (AST AU): Spurned APA Trumps Brookfield's Proposal

Assuming APA is granted DD - after the completion of Brookfield's - this transaction may drag into 2Q22. You have two large players in the mix. I...

David Blennerhassett

AusNet Services (AST AU) Opens Its Books to Brookfield

Assuming an estimated effective date towards the end of March 2022 - today's close is around a gross/annualised return of 5.9%/11.6%. Not bad....

David Blennerhassett

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

There are some pretty large flows across the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH at the September rebalance due to name/float/capping changes. Impact on some...

Brian Freitas

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