Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Because of significant business overlap, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> looks very similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a>. And CKI is coming up cheap on my monitor versus PAH. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on CKI/PAH are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Because of significant business overlap, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) looks very similar to Power Assets Holdings (6 HK). And CKI is coming up cheap on my monitor versus PAH. 
Preceding my comments on CKI/PAH are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 13 June, cybersecurity firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesserent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30716:1" rel="noopener">Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)</a> announced a Scheme with France's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thales-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21483:1" rel="noopener">Thales SA (HO FP)</a>. Thales is offering A$0.13/share, a 165% premium to last close. </li>
<li>The Scheme Doc has been despatched with Tesserent shareholders voting on the 18 September. Tesserent's board (holding 9.23%) and the IE are supportive. Implementation expected on the 4 October.</li>
<li>The Offer is also subject to FIRB signing off. New Zealand's OIO gave the green light on the 18 July.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 13 June, cybersecurity firm Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU) announced a Scheme with France's Thales SA (HO FP). Thales is offering A$0.13/share, a 165% premium to last close. 
The Scheme Doc has been despatched with Tesserent shareholders voting on the 18 September. Tesserent's board (holding 9.23%) and the IE are supportive. Implementation expected on the 4 October.
The Offer is also subject to FIRB signing off. New Zealand's OIO gave the green light on the 18 July.


Tesserent's Shareholders To Vote on 18 Sept As FIRB Mulls Thales Offer

<ul>
<li>Cybersecurity firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesserent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30716:1" rel="noopener">Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)</a> has announced it has entered into a Scheme with France's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thales-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21483:1" rel="noopener">Thales SA (HO FP)</a>.</li>
<li>Thales is offering A$0.13/share, a whopping 165% premium to last close. Although, TNT is down 87% from its January 2021 high. </li>
<li>The Offer is conditional on TNT shareholder approval and FIRB/OIO approvals. Those regulatory approvals will not be straightforward.</li>
</ul>


Cybersecurity firm Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU) has announced it has entered into a Scheme with France's Thales SA (HO FP).
Thales is offering A$0.13/share, a whopping 165% premium to last close. Although, TNT is down 87% from its January 2021 high. 
The Offer is conditional on TNT shareholder approval and FIRB/OIO approvals. Those regulatory approvals will not be straightforward.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited (CKI) operates as a real assets investment company. The Company invests in energy, transportation, water, and electricity generation sectors. CKI serves customers worldwide.

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CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)

StubWorld: CK Infra Vs. Power Assets

Because of significant business overlap, PAH looks very similar to CKI. Investors may prefer to own CKI or PAH, but not both. I'd prefer to tilt...

David Blennerhassett

Tesserent's Shareholders To Vote on 18 Sept As FIRB Mulls Thales Offer

TNT is trading at a 4.0%/34.7% gross/annualised return. This is not a super liquid arb situation. and your downside is massive. If you are...

David Blennerhassett

Tesserent (TNT AU)'s Offer From Thales

Trading at a 6.6% gross spread, but your downside is >60% if FIRB blocks. And this is not a super liquid arb situation. I'd pass on this given the...

David Blennerhassett

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

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