Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entegris-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12493" rel="noopener">Entegris Inc (ENTG US)</a> - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astera-labs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40921" rel="noopener">Astera Labs (ALAB US)</a> - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lattice-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7855" rel="noopener">Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US)</a> - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.</li></ul>

Entegris Inc (ENTG US) - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.Astera Labs (ALAB US) - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US).Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US) - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Marvell Technology managed to surpass Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, achieving a commendable revenue of $1.42 billion, marking a 6% sequential growth above the midpoint of the provided guidance.</li><li>The data center end market witnessed revenue of $556 million in the third quarter, surpassing expectations, mainly driven by robust AI revenue.</li><li>Despite the anticipated decline in enterprise on-premise revenue, Marvell's diverse product portfolio, including PAM4 optical products and Teralynx Ethernet switches, contributed to the broad-based growth.</li></ul>

Marvell Technology managed to surpass Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, achieving a commendable revenue of $1.42 billion, marking a 6% sequential growth above the midpoint of the provided guidance.The data center end market witnessed revenue of $556 million in the third quarter, surpassing expectations, mainly driven by robust AI revenue.Despite the anticipated decline in enterprise on-premise revenue, Marvell's diverse product portfolio, including PAM4 optical products and Teralynx Ethernet switches, contributed to the broad-based growth.

Marvell Technology Inc.: AI and Cloud Growth - Are They the New Tech Leaders? - Major Drivers

<ul><li><p>Marvell reported earnings recently, and I wanted to mention that at least before I continued onwards because that is a good context-setting event for the industry day.</p></li><li><p>Revenue exceeded expectations, but the mix beneath the results was illustrative.</p></li><li>Datacenter revenue grew 20% QoQ, cloud over 30% QoQ; while networking was strong, they guided for a 40% QoQ decline, consistent with networking OEM results.</li></ul>

Marvell reported earnings recently, and I wanted to mention that at least before I continued onwards because that is a good context-setting event for the industry day.Revenue exceeded expectations, but the mix beneath the results was illustrative.Datacenter revenue grew 20% QoQ, cloud over 30% QoQ; while networking was strong, they guided for a 40% QoQ decline, consistent with networking OEM results.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  </li>
<li>AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.</li>
<li>TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. </li>
</ul>


Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  
AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. 


How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

What a week (I’m a bit late on this)! I wanted to give a quick overview of all the companies that reported last week. Lattice Semiconductor -...

Fabricated Knowledge

Marvell Technology Inc.: AI and Cloud Growth - Are They the New Tech Leaders? - Major Drivers

Marvell Technology managed to surpass Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, achieving a commendable revenue of $1.42 billion, marking a...

Baptista Research

Marvell Industry Analyst Day

I went to this year’s Marvell Industry Analyst Day, and the topic de jour was AI. Compared to last year , this year’s industry day just discussed AI.

Fabricated Knowledge

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

What a week (I’m a bit late on this)! I wanted to give a quick overview of all the companies that reported last week. Lattice Semiconductor -...

Fabricated Knowledge

Marvell Technology Inc.: AI and Cloud Growth - Are They the New Tech Leaders? - Major Drivers

Marvell Technology managed to surpass Wall Street's revenue and earnings expectations, achieving a commendable revenue of $1.42 billion, marking a...

Baptista Research

Marvell Industry Analyst Day

I went to this year’s Marvell Industry Analyst Day, and the topic de jour was AI. Compared to last year , this year’s industry day just discussed AI.

Fabricated Knowledge

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...