Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Korea has 6 closely correlated and co-integrated sector pairs. All of them have a +0.8 180-day correlation coefficient. Also, they all have a sufficiently linear 180-day price scattered chart showing the nature of their high cointegration.<table class="table table-striped">
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<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Closely correlated &amp; co-integrated sector pairs in Korea"}'>Closely correlated &amp; co-integrated sector pairs in Korea</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 181.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Name"}'>Name</td>
<td style="width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Ticker</td>
<td style="width: 165.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Name"}'>Name</td>
<td style="width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"180-day correlation"}'>180-day correlation</td>
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<td style="width: 181.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[1]">Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.</td>
<td style="width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"055550"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[0]">055550</td>
<td style="width: 165.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KB Financial Group Inc"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[0]">KB Financial Group Inc</td>
<td style="width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"105560"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[-1]">105560</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9610517352067552}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=correl('1'!R870C10:R994C10, '1'!R870C11:R994C11)">0.96105</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 181.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LG Uplus Corp"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[3]">LG Uplus Corp</td>
<td style="width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"032640"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[2]">032640</td>
<td style="width: 165.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SK Telecom Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[2]">SK Telecom Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"017670"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[1]">017670</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8992786663054949}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=correl('2'!R870C10:R994C10, '2'!R870C11:R994C11)">0.89928</td>
</tr>
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<td style="width: 181.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Kia Corp"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-4]C[5]">Kia Corp</td>
<td style="width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"000270"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[4]">000270</td>
<td style="width: 165.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Motor Co"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-4]C[4]">Hyundai Motor Co</td>
<td style="width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005380"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[3]">005380</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8668911065680154}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=correl('3'!R870C10:R994C10, '3'!R870C11:R994C11)">0.86689</td>
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<td style="width: 181.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-5]C[7]">Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"091990"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-4]C[6]">091990</td>
<td style="width: 165.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-5]C[6]">Celltrion, Inc.</td>
<td style="width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"068270"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-4]C[5]">068270</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.850526307159412}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=correl('4'!R870C10:R994C10, '4'!R870C11:R994C11)">0.85053</td>
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<td style="width: 181.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"BGF Retail Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-6]C[9]">BGF Retail Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"282330"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-5]C[8]">282330</td>
<td style="width: 165.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GS Retail Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-6]C[8]">GS Retail Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"007070"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-5]C[7]">007070</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7760017852780396}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=correl('5'!R870C10:R994C10, '5'!R870C11:R994C11)">0.77600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 181.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-7]C[11]">Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"069960"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-6]C[10]">069960</td>
<td style="width: 165.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinsegae Inc"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-7]C[10]">Shinsegae Inc</td>
<td style="width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"004170"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-6]C[9]">004170</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 135.455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9327816777063404}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=correl('6'!R870C10:R994C10, '6'!R870C11:R994C11)">0.93278</td>
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<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
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</table>In the light of the short-selling resumption next week, these sector pairs will likely draw attention.Then, which pair is at an extreme sigma (±2.0σ) on a 20-day moving average? At the last close, three pairs come on the radar.<ol>
<li>Shinhan Financial and KB Financial: +2.16σ</li>
<li>Kia Corp and Hyundai Motor: -2.04σ</li>
<li>Hyundai Department Store and Shinsegae: -1.81σ</li>
</ol><table class="table table-striped">
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<td style="width: 320.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average"}'>Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 45.4545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1"}'>T-1</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-2"}'>T-2</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>T-3</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-4"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>T-4</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-5"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>T-5</td>
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<td style="width: 320.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd./KB Financial Group Inc"}' data-sheets-formula='=Data!R[-11]C[1]&amp;"/"&amp;Data!R[-11]C[2]'>Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd./KB Financial Group Inc</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.160993227615466}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'>2.16</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 45.4545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.542772683735228}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>2.54</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.786381555409661}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>1.79</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.1128800501751042}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>1.11</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.181530165798035}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$6")'>0.18</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.22641999615163677}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$7")'>-0.23</td>
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<td style="width: 320.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LG Uplus Corp/SK Telecom Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=Data!R[-12]C[3]&amp;"/"&amp;Data!R[-12]C[4]'>LG Uplus Corp/SK Telecom Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.24660010671563912}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'>-0.25</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 45.4545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.10403426571856596}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>-0.10</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.6117954095017157}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>-1.61</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.6376484979254156}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>-1.64</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.4249128627679264}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$6")'>-1.42</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.087684413507805}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$7")'>-2.09</td>
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<td style="width: 320.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Kia Corp/Hyundai Motor Co"}' data-sheets-formula='=Data!R[-13]C[5]&amp;"/"&amp;Data!R[-13]C[6]'>Kia Corp/Hyundai Motor Co</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.0407109696616685}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'>-2.04</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 45.4545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.0025888653486463}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>-2.00</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.1695043509161958}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>-1.17</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.004698906236027549}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>0.00</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.10273148905333784}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$6")'>0.10</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.0802292544899608}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$7")'>-1.08</td>
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<td style="width: 320.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd/Celltrion, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula='=Data!R[-14]C[7]&amp;"/"&amp;Data!R[-14]C[8]'>Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd/Celltrion, Inc.</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.31044173489418}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'>-0.31</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 45.4545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.7388105592067177}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>-0.74</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.0110561898756243}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>-1.01</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.0565672498648304}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>-0.06</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.1863196550598434}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$6")'>-0.19</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5127886597937376}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$7")'>0.51</td>
</tr>
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<td style="width: 320.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"BGF Retail Co Ltd/GS Retail Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=Data!R[-15]C[9]&amp;"/"&amp;Data!R[-15]C[10]'>BGF Retail Co Ltd/GS Retail Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2360588141562515}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'>0.24</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 45.4545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.102593735245234}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>-2.10</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.5568836748773385}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>-2.56</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.3214237049099196}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>-2.32</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.024092449046153583}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$6")'>-0.02</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.4712110272418423}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$7")'>0.47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 320.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd/Shinsegae Inc"}' data-sheets-formula='=Data!R[-16]C[11]&amp;"/"&amp;Data!R[-16]C[12]'>Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd/Shinsegae Inc</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.807722354711979}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'>-1.81</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 45.4545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.309293992473888}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>-2.31</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.530789825470454}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>-2.53</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.733312375711856}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>-1.73</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.3190244950375916}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$6")'>-1.32</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 46.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.03766239765956894}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$7")'>-0.04</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>Out of these three pairs currently at ±2.0σ, the Kia Corp/Hyundai Motor pair deserves special attention as mean reversion appears already in progress for the other two pairs.

Korea has 6 closely correlated and co-integrated sector pairs. All of them have a +0.8 180-day correlation coefficient. Also, they all have a sufficiently linear 180-day price scattered chart showing the nature of their high cointegration.








Closely correlated &amp; co-integrated sector pairs in Korea

Name
Ticker
Name
Ticker
180-day correlation


Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.
055550
KB Financial Group Inc
105560
0.96105


LG Uplus Corp
032640
SK Telecom Co Ltd
017670
0.89928


Kia Corp
000270
Hyundai Motor Co
005380
0.86689


Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd
091990
Celltrion, Inc.
068270
0.85053


BGF Retail Co Ltd
282330
GS Retail Co Ltd
007070
0.77600


Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd
069960
Shinsegae Inc
004170
0.93278

Source: KRX

In the light of the short-selling resumption next week, these sector pairs will likely draw attention.Then, which pair is at an extreme sigma (±2.0σ) on a 20-day moving average? At the last close, three pairs come on the radar.
Shinhan Financial and KB Financial: +2.16σ
Kia Corp and Hyundai Motor: -2.04σ
Hyundai Department Store and Shinsegae: -1.81σ












Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average
Today
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5


Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd./KB Financial Group Inc
2.16
2.54
1.79
1.11
0.18
-0.23


LG Uplus Corp/SK Telecom Co Ltd
-0.25
-0.10
-1.61
-1.64
-1.42
-2.09


Kia Corp/Hyundai Motor Co
-2.04
-2.00
-1.17
0.00
0.10
-1.08


Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd/Celltrion, Inc.
-0.31
-0.74
-1.01
-0.06
-0.19
0.51


BGF Retail Co Ltd/GS Retail Co Ltd
0.24
-2.10
-2.56
-2.32
-0.02
0.47


Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd/Shinsegae Inc
-1.81
-2.31
-2.53
-1.73
-1.32
-0.04

Source: KRX

Out of these three pairs currently at ±2.0σ, the Kia Corp/Hyundai Motor pair deserves special attention as mean reversion appears already in progress for the other two pairs.

Korea Pair Trade Idea: 6 Closely Correlated & Cointegrated Sector Pairs

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33008:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS)</a> finally embarks on an IPO.<div class="content-highlight"><a href="https://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2021/04/13/2021041302338.html#:~:text=%ED%98%84%EB%8C%80%EC%97%94%EC%A7%80%EB%8B%88%EC%96%B4%EB%A7%81%EC%9D%98%20%EC%B5%9C%EB%8C%80%20%EC%A3%BC%EC%A3%BC,%EB%B3%B4%EC%9C%A0%ED%95%9C%202%EB%8C%80%20%EC%A3%BC%EC%A3%BC%EB%8B%A4.&amp;text=%ED%98%84%EB%8C%80%EC%97%94%EC%A7%80%EB%8B%88%EC%96%B4%EB%A7%81%EC%9D%B4%20%EC%83%81%EC%9E%A5%ED%95%98%EB%A9%B4,%EC%9C%A0%EC%9A%A9%ED%95%98%EA%B2%8C%20%EC%93%B0%EC%9D%BC%20%EC%88%98%20%EC%9E%88%EB%8B%A4." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the news link. (Source: Chosun Biz)</a></div>Chung Eui-sun owns an 11.72% stake, while Hyundai E&amp;C retains the major shareholding at 38.62%.The current OTC MC sits at ₩8T, giving a 1.11x Sales and a 30.92x OP on FY2020. The CES stake is valued at a little less than ₩1T.The target IPO date is before the end of this year.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Engineering shareholding"}'>Hyundai Engineering shareholding</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction Co."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[3], "name")'>Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction Co.</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3862}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>38.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun"}'>Chung Eui-sun</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1172}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>11.72%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: Chosun Biz"}'>Source: Chosun Biz</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Engineering valuation (₩B)"}'>Hyundai Engineering valuation (₩B)</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"OTC MC"}'>OTC MC</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>8,000.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"x Sales"}'>x Sales</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.112904123309777}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-7]C[3]">1.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"x OP"}'>x OP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":30.923850019327407}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-7]C[3]">30.92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun stake"}'>Chung Eui-sun stake (11.72%)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":937.6}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R[-22]C[0]">937.6</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: 38 Communication"}'>Source: 38 Communication</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Engineering financials (₩B)"}'>Hyundai Engineering financials (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2017}'>2017</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2018}'>2018</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2019}'>2019</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2020}'>2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sales"}'>Sales</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6268.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>6,268.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6286.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>6,286.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6801.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>6,801.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7188.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>7,188.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"OP"}'>OP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":514.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>514.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":453.7}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>453.7</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":408.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>408.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":258.7}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0","3":1}'>258.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - OPM"}'>- OPM</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.08206502664241729}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-2]C[0]">8.21%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.07217396837517101}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-2]C[0]">7.22%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.060004999191307286}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-2]C[0]">6.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.03598853708752991}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-2]C[0]">3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS) finally embarks on an IPO.Here is the news link. (Source: Chosun Biz)Chung Eui-sun owns an 11.72% stake, while Hyundai E&amp;C retains the major shareholding at 38.62%.The current OTC MC sits at ₩8T, giving a 1.11x Sales and a 30.92x OP on FY2020. The CES stake is valued at a little less than ₩1T.The target IPO date is before the end of this year.





Hyundai Engineering shareholding

Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction Co.
38.62%


Chung Eui-sun
11.72%

Source: Chosun Biz







Hyundai Engineering valuation (₩B)

OTC MC
8,000.0


x Sales
1.11


x OP
30.92


Chung Eui-sun stake (11.72%)
937.6

Source: 38 Communication











Hyundai Engineering financials (₩B)
2017
2018
2019
2020


Sales
6,268.2
6,286.2
6,801.1
7,188.4


OP
514.4
453.7
408.1
258.7


- OPM
8.21%
7.22%
6.00%
3.60%

Source: DART



Potential Trades on HMG Stocks Amid Hyundai Eng IPO: Loan/Short Int Flow & 20D MA σ

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Hyundai Engineering   / Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://m.stock.naver.com/index.html#/news/ranknews/view/011/0003896445" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering Co</a> is starting its IPO process, which was noted by several local Korean media accounts today. The local media also has mentioned that the value of Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) could be about 10 trillion won ($8.9 billion).
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33008:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS)</a> is expected to complete its IPO by the end of 2021. It was reported on 13 April by the local media that Hyundai Engineering Co sent request for proposals (RFP) for IPO to the major domestic investment banks (including Mirae Asset Securities, Korea Investment &amp; Securities, NH Investment &amp; Securities, and other foreign banks) on 9 April. 
A successful IPO of Hyundai Engineering Co could accelerate the restructuring of the entire Hyundai Motor Group. For example, given that the Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Chung Eui-Sun is the second largest shareholder of Hyundai Engineering Co, the IPO proceeds from this company could be used to further increase the ownership of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-mobis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6089:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS)</a> in the future.
Note: Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) is a different company than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-const" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4292:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering &amp; Const (000720 KS) (Hyundai E&amp;C)</a>. In this insight, the former company is mentioned as either HEC or Hyundai Engineering Co. 
</div>


Hyundai Engineering Co is starting its IPO process, which was noted by several local Korean media accounts today. The local media also has mentioned that the value of Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) could be about 10 trillion won ($8.9 billion).
Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS) is expected to complete its IPO by the end of 2021. It was reported on 13 April by the local media that Hyundai Engineering Co sent request for proposals (RFP) for IPO to the major domestic investment banks (including Mirae Asset Securities, Korea Investment &amp; Securities, NH Investment &amp; Securities, and other foreign banks) on 9 April. 
A successful IPO of Hyundai Engineering Co could accelerate the restructuring of the entire Hyundai Motor Group. For example, given that the Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Chung Eui-Sun is the second largest shareholder of Hyundai Engineering Co, the IPO proceeds from this company could be used to further increase the ownership of Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) in the future.
Note: Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) is a different company than Hyundai Engineering &amp; Const (000720 KS) (Hyundai E&amp;C). In this insight, the former company is mentioned as either HEC or Hyundai Engineering Co. 


Hyundai Engineering IPO Process Begins - A Key Catalyst for the Hyundai Motor Group Restructuring?

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
On 9 April, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/southkorea-nps/update-1-s-koreas-pension-fund-adjusts-rules-to-raise-domestic-equity-allocation-idUSL1N2M20EN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPS</a> announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.
NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.
</div>


On 9 April, the NPS announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.
NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.


What's going on at Hyundai Mobis (and Glovis)?Once again, the same old rumor emerged in the local market yesterday.<div class="content-highlight"><h2>Chung Eui-sun will sell 10% of his Glovis stake in block deals. Then, he will use the proceeds to buy Mobis shares.</h2></div>Why do we keep hearing this rumor?For this, we need to know the Korea FTC's intra-group transaction restrictions.If the owner family's shareholding in a chaebol affiliate exceeds the threshold, the affiliate will become subject to the intra-group transaction restrictions.A company under the intra-group transaction restrictions isn't allowed to exceed intra-group deals for more than ₩20B (or 12% of total sales).Currently, Hyundai Glovis is the problem within the Hyundai Motor Group. The intra-group deals account for 69.8% (₩9.8T) of the total revenue last year (₩14.5T).The shareholding threshold is 30% for listed companies and 20% for unlisted companies.Glovis has been able to escape the restrictions as the Chung family (Chung Mong-koo and Chung Eui-sun combined) have slightly less than 30%.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Glovis"}'>Hyundai Glovis</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0"}'>Shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%"}'>%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value (₩B)"}'>Value (₩B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun"}'>Chung Eui-sun</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8732290}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>8,732,290</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2329}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>23.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1563.34125}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">1,563.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Den Norske Amerikalinje AS"}'>Den Norske Amerikalinje AS</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4125000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>4,125,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.11}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>11.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":738.375}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">738.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Mong-koo"}'>Chung Mong-koo</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2517701}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>2,517,701</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0671}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>6.71%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":450.40875000000005}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">450.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Motor"}'>Hyundai Motor</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1830939}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>1,830,939</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0488}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.88%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":327.57}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">327.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"HM CMK Foundation"}'>HM CMK Foundation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1671018}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>1,671,018</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0446}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.46%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":299.3775}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">299.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo"}'>Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11249991}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]+R[-5]C[0]">11,249,991</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2999}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>29.99%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2013.07875}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*R10C5">2,013.1</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}'>Source: FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>But starting next year, the threshold for listed companies will also become 20%.This is exactly why we keep hearing this rumor because Chung Eui-sun has to reduce his stake by 10%p so that the family-owned combined stake falls below 20%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/625/original/image?1617927547" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199625"></figure>

What's going on at Hyundai Mobis (and Glovis)?Once again, the same old rumor emerged in the local market yesterday.Chung Eui-sun will sell 10% of his Glovis stake in block deals. Then, he will use the proceeds to buy Mobis shares.Why do we keep hearing this rumor?For this, we need to know the Korea FTC's intra-group transaction restrictions.If the owner family's shareholding in a chaebol affiliate exceeds the threshold, the affiliate will become subject to the intra-group transaction restrictions.A company under the intra-group transaction restrictions isn't allowed to exceed intra-group deals for more than ₩20B (or 12% of total sales).Currently, Hyundai Glovis is the problem within the Hyundai Motor Group. The intra-group deals account for 69.8% (₩9.8T) of the total revenue last year (₩14.5T).The shareholding threshold is 30% for listed companies and 20% for unlisted companies.Glovis has been able to escape the restrictions as the Chung family (Chung Mong-koo and Chung Eui-sun combined) have slightly less than 30%.








Hyundai Glovis
Shares
%
Value (₩B)


Chung Eui-sun
8,732,290
23.29%
1,563.3


Den Norske Amerikalinje AS
4,125,000
11.00%
738.4


Chung Mong-koo
2,517,701
6.71%
450.4


Hyundai Motor
1,830,939
4.88%
327.6


HM CMK Foundation
1,671,018
4.46%
299.4


Chung Eui-sun+Chung Mong-koo
11,249,991
29.99%
2,013.1

Source: FnGuide

But starting next year, the threshold for listed companies will also become 20%.This is exactly why we keep hearing this rumor because Chung Eui-sun has to reduce his stake by 10%p so that the family-owned combined stake falls below 20%.

Glovis Block Deals by Chung & Buy Mobis Shares: Unlikely to Happen

South Korea

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kia Corp (000270 KS)

Korea Pair Trade Idea: 6 Closely Correlated & Cointegrated Sector Pairs

This post discusses the 6 closely correlated and cointegrated sector pairs in Korea in the light of the short-selling resumption starting this week.

Sanghyun Park

Potential Trades on HMG Stocks Amid Hyundai Eng IPO: Loan/Short Int Flow & 20D MA σ

Hyundai Eng begins an IPO process, which should be a group-wide restructuring triggering momentum. This post looks into potential trades on the...

Sanghyun Park

Hyundai Engineering IPO Process Begins - A Key Catalyst for the Hyundai Motor Group Restructuring?

Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) has started its IPO process and the IPO is expected to be completed by end of this year. The IPO of HEC could...

Douglas Kim

NPS Raises Domestic Equity Allocations

NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%. As a result of this change, the sale of...

Douglas Kim

Glovis Block Deals by Chung & Buy Mobis Shares: Unlikely to Happen

This post examines the Glovis block deals rumor by the Chung family and explains why it is unlikely to happen given the HMG restructuring dynamics.

Sanghyun Park

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