Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recruit’s share price has increased 56.8% over the last 12-months with recovery in recruitment markets both domestic and globally.</li>
<li>HR Tech saw a spike in EBITDA margin due to auction-based pricing, however, we expect the current imbalance in recruitment market to ease which should normalise margins going forward.</li>
<li>We expect Recruit’s post-Covid recovery to be short-lived with the emergence of Omicron which is likely to impact staffing activities and marketing services (dine and travel) due to emergency measures.</li>
</ul>


Recruit’s share price has increased 56.8% over the last 12-months with recovery in recruitment markets both domestic and globally.
HR Tech saw a spike in EBITDA margin due to auction-based pricing, however, we expect the current imbalance in recruitment market to ease which should normalise margins going forward.
We expect Recruit’s post-Covid recovery to be short-lived with the emergence of Omicron which is likely to impact staffing activities and marketing services (dine and travel) due to emergency measures.


2022 High Conviction – Recruit: Post Covid Recovery May Be Short-Lived

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive and negative aspects of the deal</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note, we will talk about the positive and negative aspects of the deal


Net Protections Holdings IPO - Mixed Bag of Positives and Negatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> reported its 2QFY03/22 results on 15th November and recorded a revenue growth of 23.2% YoY with a more than 2.4x growth in operating profit to ¥118.2bn.</li>
<li>Adjusted EBITDA grew by 101% to ¥140.7bn compared to ¥69.9bn for the 2nd quarter last year. Revenue and OP beat consensus by 1.7% and 27% respectively.</li>
<li>Recruit’s share price is currently at an all-time high with the positive sentiment regarding the company’s earnings and improving job market conditions.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported its 2QFY03/22 results on 15th November and recorded a revenue growth of 23.2% YoY with a more than 2.4x growth in operating profit to ¥118.2bn.
Adjusted EBITDA grew by 101% to ¥140.7bn compared to ¥69.9bn for the 2nd quarter last year. Revenue and OP beat consensus by 1.7% and 27% respectively.
Recruit’s share price is currently at an all-time high with the positive sentiment regarding the company’s earnings and improving job market conditions.


Recruit: Auction Pricing Helps Surge in Profits; Significant Downside Once Demand for Jobs Recover

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
Just plain horrible.
Following an indicative pre-market sell-off of 35%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc (JOBS US)</a> closed down 19.2%, and is now 20% adrift of the undisturbed price. 
The news? As per 51job's <a href="https://ir.51job.com/ir/php/2021/PreRelease20211108.php?1108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>:
<blockquote>
that certain members of the buyer consortium that formed Garnet Faith Limited to acquire the Company ... have been in consultation with Chinese regulators on recent regulatory changes in China that may be applicable to the Company and the Proposed Transaction. The consultation process by these buyer consortium members is currently ongoing and a clear timeline to its completion cannot be provided at this time. 
</blockquote>
</div>
"Recent regulatory changes" emerged shortly after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a>'s listing in early July, and a broad regulatory crackdown followed, casting a net over sectors from education to technology. As quoted by Ministry of Industry and Information Technology spokesperson Zhao Zhiguo back in September: "we are guiding relevant companies to carry out self-examination and rectification".
Late last month State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) proposed a list of responsibilities it wanted internet platforms to uphold. This latest edict primarily targeted large platforms (such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>) and that they should (according to a Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-proposes-guidelines-internet-platform-responsibilities-2021-10-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a>) "abide by the principles of fairness when offering services and should open their services up to other platform operators. They should not obtain data without users' consent and should be transparent when using big data to recommend products."  The SAMR said these were draft guidelines that were open to public consultation until yesterday.
51job.com is the leading recruitment website/platform in China. Shares rolled over in July as the regulatory oversight on internet platforms ensnared more sectors/companies. 
Yet this latest announcement from 51job provides little new news to what was already known. Timing, admittedly, was not ideal, arriving shortly on the heels of last week's <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001295484/000110465921132333/tm2131363d1_sc13da.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> that funding for the Offer had progressed.  
The significant price correction yesterday - which could all but be construed as a dealbreak - can ostensibly be put down to short-term investors piling into 51job on the financing news, then turning tail, exiting en-masse after the perceived financing head-fake.  
Yesterday's price movement appears overdone.  The gross spread to terms is now out to 45.8%.
<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/535/original/image_87521874221636431612863.png?1636431613" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240535"></figure>
More below the fold.
</div>


Just plain horrible.
Following an indicative pre-market sell-off of 35%, 51 Job Inc (JOBS US) closed down 19.2%, and is now 20% adrift of the undisturbed price. 
The news? As per 51job's announcement:

that certain members of the buyer consortium that formed Garnet Faith Limited to acquire the Company ... have been in consultation with Chinese regulators on recent regulatory changes in China that may be applicable to the Company and the Proposed Transaction. The consultation process by these buyer consortium members is currently ongoing and a clear timeline to its completion cannot be provided at this time. 


"Recent regulatory changes" emerged shortly after DiDi Global (DIDI US)'s listing in early July, and a broad regulatory crackdown followed, casting a net over sectors from education to technology. As quoted by Ministry of Industry and Information Technology spokesperson Zhao Zhiguo back in September: "we are guiding relevant companies to carry out self-examination and rectification".
Late last month State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) proposed a list of responsibilities it wanted internet platforms to uphold. This latest edict primarily targeted large platforms (such as Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK)) and that they should (according to a Reuters article) "abide by the principles of fairness when offering services and should open their services up to other platform operators. They should not obtain data without users' consent and should be transparent when using big data to recommend products."  The SAMR said these were draft guidelines that were open to public consultation until yesterday.
51job.com is the leading recruitment website/platform in China. Shares rolled over in July as the regulatory oversight on internet platforms ensnared more sectors/companies. 
Yet this latest announcement from 51job provides little new news to what was already known. Timing, admittedly, was not ideal, arriving shortly on the heels of last week's announcement that funding for the Offer had progressed.  
The significant price correction yesterday - which could all but be construed as a dealbreak - can ostensibly be put down to short-term investors piling into 51job on the financing news, then turning tail, exiting en-masse after the perceived financing head-fake.  
Yesterday's price movement appears overdone.  The gross spread to terms is now out to 45.8%.


More below the fold.


AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

In complete contrast to the recent Schedule 13D filing (November 1, 2021) disclosing that  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) </a> Founder/CEO Rick Yan and his affiliated entities, members of the Buying Group  had entered into financing agreements with China Merchants Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank putting into place the financing for the Go-Private transaction as contemplated by their commitment letters (disclosed in the press release of June 21, 2021 announcing the agreed transaction), any hope for this Go-Private deal moving quickly to consummation, if at all, appears to have evaporated. In a flash, the spread has widened from 18% to  46%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/463/original/image_75543846961636410149399.png?1636410151" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240463"></figure>In this insight, we attempt to read between the lines of a somewhat terse statement concerning regulatory involvement with the deal. It may not be as bad as the market's first take.

In complete contrast to the recent Schedule 13D filing (November 1, 2021) disclosing that  51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)  Founder/CEO Rick Yan and his affiliated entities, members of the Buying Group  had entered into financing agreements with China Merchants Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank putting into place the financing for the Go-Private transaction as contemplated by their commitment letters (disclosed in the press release of June 21, 2021 announcing the agreed transaction), any hope for this Go-Private deal moving quickly to consummation, if at all, appears to have evaporated. In a flash, the spread has widened from 18% to  46%.In this insight, we attempt to read between the lines of a somewhat terse statement concerning regulatory involvement with the deal. It may not be as bad as the market's first take.

MergerTalk: Thoughts On Today's Disclosure-Why It Is Not The Deal Killer The Market May Think It Is

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

2022 High Conviction – Recruit: Post Covid Recovery May Be Short-Lived

We expect Recruit's post pandemic recovery to be short-lived with normalisation of recruitment markets and the ongoing Covid situation. Share price...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Net Protections Holdings IPO - Mixed Bag of Positives and Negatives

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares...

Sumeet Singh

Recruit: Auction Pricing Helps Surge in Profits; Significant Downside Once Demand for Jobs Recover

Recruit recorded a revenue growth of 23.2% YoY with a more than 2.4x growth in operating profit to ¥118.2bn. Share price is currently at an all...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

51job (JOB US): That Was An Overreaction

Trading at a gross spread of 45.8%. I expect this spread to stay wide given the opaqueness of the regulatory overlay, the (likely) vacuum of...

David Blennerhassett

MergerTalk: Thoughts On Today's Disclosure-Why It Is Not The Deal Killer The Market May Think It Is

The somewhat terse statement concerning regulatory involvement with the the JOBS Go-Private deal may not be as bad as the market's first take

Robert Sassoon

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