Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> suffered on negative news, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.</li>
</ul>


China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.

Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) suffered on negative news, while Meituan (3690 HK) continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We do not forecast any constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks.</li>
<li>Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 7.6% leading to a round-trip trade of US$2.4bn. 17 stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> will have the largest inflow while there will be big outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We do not forecast any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks.
Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 7.6% leading to a round-trip trade of US$2.4bn. 17 stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Li Auto (2015 HK) will have the largest inflow while there will be big outflows from Meituan (3690 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), JD.com (9618 HK) and Tencent (700 HK). 


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$2.4bn in June

<ul>
<li>With no stocks in outright inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5.3% leading to a round-trip trade of US$1.51bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> is expected to be the largest buy in June following the stock being the largest sell at the March rebalance (also due to capping).</li>
</ul>


With no stocks in outright inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June.
Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5.3% leading to a round-trip trade of US$1.51bn.

Li Auto (2015 HK) is expected to be the largest buy in June following the stock being the largest sell at the March rebalance (also due to capping).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$1.5bn in June

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; (KKR US)</a> seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113787" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on a declining revenue trend, a challenging near-term growth target, high China revenue risk, margins on a downward trend, increasing inventory days and deteriorating FCF.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. KKR &amp; (KKR US) seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.
In Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on a declining revenue trend, a challenging near-term growth target, high China revenue risk, margins on a downward trend, increasing inventory days and deteriorating FCF.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; (KKR US)</a> seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.   </li>
<li>Kokusai has the leading market share in the batch deposition equipment market and the second largest market share in the treatment equipment market, according to TechInsights and Gartner.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on a leading market share, strong IP, healthy forward revenue indicators, increasing recurring service revenue, solid gross margin trends and modest leverage.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. KKR &amp; (KKR US) seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.   
Kokusai has the leading market share in the batch deposition equipment market and the second largest market share in the treatment equipment market, according to TechInsights and Gartner.
The key elements of the bull case rest on a leading market share, strong IP, healthy forward revenue indicators, increasing recurring service revenue, solid gross margin trends and modest leverage.


Hong Kong

ASM Pacific Technology Limited manufactures semiconductor back end equipment. The Company produces assembly equipment, packaging equipment, surface mount technology equipment, and other equipment. ASM Pacific Technology supplies its products in microelectronics, semiconductor, optoelectronics, and other fields.

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ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

China's National Team continued buying in the ETF market. Smoore International, Xinjiang Goldwind and Hisense had positive news sentiment, while...

David Mudd

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$2.4bn in June

We do not forecast any constituent changes for the HSTECH in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks. Li Auto is the big buy; there...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$1.5bn in June

We do not expect any constituent changes for the HSTECH Index in June. Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5.3% leading to a round...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on a declining revenue trend, a challenging near-term growth target, high China revenue risk, margins on a downward trend,...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on a leading market share, strong IP, healthy forward revenue indicators, increasing recurring service...

Arun George

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