ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-commercial-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28807:1" rel="noopener">Elite Commercial REIT (ELITE SP)</a> and OceanaGold IPO in the Philippines. </li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Singapore plus a sector insight on Thai banks and an index rebalancing from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> on the LQ45 in Indonesia. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ),Elite Commercial REIT (ELITE SP) and OceanaGold IPO in the Philippines. 
There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Singapore plus a sector insight on Thai banks and an index rebalancing from Brian Freitas on the LQ45 in Indonesia. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA Leads, BFIN Is Back, and Thai Banks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We noted Telkom’s resilient 1Q24 topline as per expectations amid seasonality which implies IOH and EXCL may also deliver inline revenue.</li><li>Expect IOH and EXCL to deliver sturdy EBITDA margins as telcos refrain from taking commercial initiativesin 1Q24, hence limited NP downside.</li><li>Maintain sector OW rating as TLKM results imply the sector remains constructive, hence recent sharp de-rating is unwarranted.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We noted Telkom’s resilient 1Q24 topline as per expectations amid seasonality which implies IOH and EXCL may also deliver inline revenue.Expect IOH and EXCL to deliver sturdy EBITDA margins as telcos refrain from taking commercial initiativesin 1Q24, hence limited NP downside.Maintain sector OW rating as TLKM results imply the sector remains constructive, hence recent sharp de-rating is unwarranted.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telco: 1Q24 Preview: TLKM’s Inline 1Q24 Earnings Implies Possible Limited Downside for ISAT and EXCL

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.</li>
<li>The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>) were approached.</li>
<li>The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. </li>
</ul>


On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. 


HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

<ul><li>Organic and inorganic opportunities for rerating4Q23 foretells positive trends for better subs demographics and ARPU for IOH &amp; XL, justifying their guidance for FY24 revenue to outperform.</li><li>TLKM’s valuation reflects mainly ex-Java challenges</li><li>Integrated services qualities can be unlocked with the presence of a strategic investor.An EXCL-FREN M&amp;A may not trigger a tender-offer</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Organic and inorganic opportunities for rerating4Q23 foretells positive trends for better subs demographics and ARPU for IOH &amp; XL, justifying their guidance for FY24 revenue to outperform.TLKM’s valuation reflects mainly ex-Java challengesIntegrated services qualities can be unlocked with the presence of a strategic investor.An EXCL-FREN M&amp;A may not trigger a tender-offerContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telco - Organic and Inorganic Opportunities for Rerating

<ul><li>IOH may see 4Q23 revenue growth (+3.9%qoq) provided that it absorbs its capex budget, while we expect margins to continue to improve. </li><li>Expect TLKM &amp; EXCL to deliver 4Q23 revenue growth of 4.0%/1.5% qoq but with opex potentially weighing on the 4Q23 margins.</li><li>ISAT is our top pick for expected earnings improvements, while EXCL is an attractive merger target and has value unlocking potential.  </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IOH may see 4Q23 revenue growth (+3.9%qoq) provided that it absorbs its capex budget, while we expect margins to continue to improve. Expect TLKM &amp; EXCL to deliver 4Q23 revenue growth of 4.0%/1.5% qoq but with opex potentially weighing on the 4Q23 margins.ISAT is our top pick for expected earnings improvements, while EXCL is an attractive merger target and has value unlocking potential.  Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

4Q23 Preview: Telcos to Deliver Tangible Quarterly Topline Growth with Broadly In-Line Earnings

Indonesia

PT XL Axiata Tbk provides a wide range of mobile telecommunications services in Indonesia.

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XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA Leads, BFIN Is Back, and Thai Banks

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Telco: 1Q24 Preview: TLKM’s Inline 1Q24 Earnings Implies Possible Limited Downside for ISAT and EXCL

We noted Telkom’s resilient 1Q24 topline as per expectations amid seasonality which implies IOH and EXCL may also deliver inline revenue.

BRI Danareksa Research

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

The probability of a takeover offer is low, which explains TPG/MBK's exploration of other options. An attractive dividend yield continues to...

Arun George

Telco - Organic and Inorganic Opportunities for Rerating

Organic and inorganic opportunities for rerating4Q23 foretells positive trends for better subs demographics and ARPU for IOH & XL, justifying their...

BRI Danareksa Research

4Q23 Preview: Telcos to Deliver Tangible Quarterly Topline Growth with Broadly In-Line Earnings

ISAT is our top pick for expected earnings improvements, while EXCL is an attractive merger target and has value unlocking potential.

BRI Danareksa Research

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