'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/837/original/2019-01-18_11-35-42.png?1547778954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75837"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15862" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13435" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1">Bandai Namco (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote (7532 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/838/original/2019-01-18_11-36-19.png?1547778995" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75838"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/839/original/2019-01-18_11-37-01.png?1547779035" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75839"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/840/original/2019-01-18_11-37-37.png?1547779070" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75840"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/841/original/2019-01-18_11-38-07.png?1547779100" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75841"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-score-update-overbought-and-oversold-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25849">Insight</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/842/original/2019-01-18_11-39-56.png?1547779218" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75842"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/843/original/2019-01-18_11-42-06.png?1547779350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75843"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.
</div>



Source: Japan Analytics

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been Descente (8114 JP),  Ariake Japan (2815 JP), Fancl (4921 JP), Bandai Namco (7832 JP), Don Quijote (7532 JP), and Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP).





Source: Japan Analytics

RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been LINE Corp (3938 JP) - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last Insight, and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).


Source: Japan Analytics

In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.


Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

Equity Bottom-Up

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/074/071/original/2018-12-28_11-57-31.png?1545965862" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="74071"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
THE <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13631" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1">GMO INTERNET (9449 JP)</a> STORY - GMO internet (GMO-i) has attracted much attention in the last eighteen months from an unusual trinity of value, activist and ‘cryptocurrency’ equity investors.
<ul class="">
<li>
VALUE- Many traditional, but mostly foreign, value investors have seen the persistent negative difference between GMO-i’s market capitalisation and the value of the company’s holdings in its eight listed consolidated subsidiaries as an opportunity to invest in GMO-i with a considerable ‘margin of safety’.</li>
<li>
ACTIVIST - Since July 2017, the activist investor, Oasis, has waged a so-far-unsuccessful campaign with the aim of improving GMO’s corporate governance, removing takeover defences, addressing a 'secularly undervalued stock price we are not able to tolerate' (sic), and redefining the role and influence of the company’s Chairman, President, Representative Director and largest shareholder, Masatoshi Kumagai.</li>
<li>'CRYPTO!' - In December 2017, GMO-i committed to spending more than ¥35b or 10% of non-current assets. The aim was threefold: to set up a bitcoin ‘mining’ headquarters in Switzerland (with the ‘mining’ operations being carried out at an undisclosed location in Scandinavia), to develop proprietary state-of-the-art 7nm-node 'mining chips', and, in due course, to sell GMO-branded and developed ‘mining’ machines. The move was hailed in the ‘crypto’ fraternity as GMO-i became the largest non-Chinese and the first well-established Internet conglomerate to make a major investment in ‘cryptocurrency’ infrastructure.</li>
</ul>
OUTSTANDING - Following the December 2017 announcement, trading volumes spiked into ‘Overtraded’ territory - as measured by our Volume Score. Many investors saw GMO-i shares as a safer way of gaining exposure to 'cryptocurrencies', even as the price of bitcoin began to subside. By early June 2018, GMO-i’s shares had reached a closing price of ¥3,020: up 157% from the low of the prior year and outperforming TOPIX by 135%. Whatever the primary driver of this outstanding performance, each of our trio of investor groups no doubt felt vindicated in their approach to the stock.
CRYPTO CLOSURE - On December 25th 2018, GMO-i’s shares reached a new 52-week low of ¥1,325, a decline of 56% from the June high. Year to date, GMO-i shares have now declined by 31%, underperforming TOPIX by nine percentage points. On the same day, GMO-i <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/en/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info20181225_e.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> that the company would post an extraordinary ¥35.5b loss for the fourth quarter, incurring an impairment loss of ¥11.5b in relation to the closure of the Swiss ‘mining’ headquarters and a loss of ¥24b to cover the closure of the ‘mining chip' and 'mining machine' development, manufacturing and sales businesses. GMO-i will continue to ‘mine’ bitcoin from its Tokyo headquarters and intends to relocate the 'mining' centre from Scandinavia to (sic) 'a region that will allow us to secure cleaner and less expensive power supply, but we have not yet decided the details’. Unlisted subsidiary GMO Coin's 'cryptocurrency' exchange will also continue to operate, and the previously-announced plans to launch a ¥-based ‘stablecoin’ in 2019 will proceed. In the two trading days following this announcement, the shares have recovered 13% to ¥1,505. 
RAIDING THE LISTCO PIGGY BANK - As we shall relate, this is the second time since listing that GMO-i has written off a significant new business venture which the company had commenced only a short time before. In both cases, the company was forced to sell stakes in its listed consolidated subsidiaries to offset the resulting losses. On this occasion, the sale of shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22762" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22762:1">GMO Financial (7177 JP)</a> (GMO-F) on September 25 2018, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a> (GMO-PG) on December 17 2018, raised a combined ¥55.6b and, after the deduction of the yet-to-be-determined tax on the realised gains, should more than offset the ‘crypto’ losses. <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/en/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info20181225_2e.pdf" target="_blank">According </a>to CFO Yasuda, any surplus from this exercise will be used to pay down debt. Also discussed below and in keeping with this GMO-i ‘MO’, in 2015, the company twice sold shares in its listed subsidiaries to ‘smooth out' less-than-desirable operating results.
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below we will cover the following topics:-
I: THE GMO-i TRACK RECORD - TOP-DOWN v. BOTTOM UP
<ul>
<li>BOTTOM LINE No. 1: NET INCOME</li>
<li>BOTTOM LINE No.2 - COMPREHENSIVE INCOME</li>
</ul>
II: THE GMO-i BUSINESS MODEL - THROWING JELLY AT THE WALL
III: THE GMO-i BALANCE SHEET - NOT SO HAPPY RETURNS
IV: THE GMO-i CASH FLOW - DEBT-FUNDED CASH PILE
V: THE GMO-i VALUATION - TWO METHODS &gt; SAME RESULT
<ul>
<li>VALUATION METHOD No.1 - THE 'LISTCO DISCOUNT'</li>
<li>VALUATION METHOD No.2 - RESIDUAL INCOME</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
CONCLUSION - For those unable or unwilling to read further, we conclude that GMO-i 'rump' is a grossly-overrated business. Despite having started and spun off several valuable GMO Group entities, CEO Kumagai bears responsibility for two decades of serial and very poorly-timed ‘mal-investments’. As a result, the stock market has, except for the ‘cryptocurrency’-induced frenzy of the first six months of 2018, historically not accorded GMO-i any premium for future growth, and has correctly looked beyond the ‘siren song’ of the ‘HoldCo discount’. According to the two valuation methodologies described below, the company is, however, fairly valued at the current share price of ¥1,460. Investors looking for a return to the market-implied 3% perpetual growth rate of mid–2018 are likely to be as disappointed as those wishing for BTC to triple from here.
</div>



Source: Japan Analytics

THE GMO INTERNET (9449 JP) STORY - GMO internet (GMO-i) has attracted much attention in the last eighteen months from an unusual trinity of value, activist and ‘cryptocurrency’ equity investors.


VALUE- Many traditional, but mostly foreign, value investors have seen the persistent negative difference between GMO-i’s market capitalisation and the value of the company’s holdings in its eight listed consolidated subsidiaries as an opportunity to invest in GMO-i with a considerable ‘margin of safety’.

ACTIVIST - Since July 2017, the activist investor, Oasis, has waged a so-far-unsuccessful campaign with the aim of improving GMO’s corporate governance, removing takeover defences, addressing a 'secularly undervalued stock price we are not able to tolerate' (sic), and redefining the role and influence of the company’s Chairman, President, Representative Director and largest shareholder, Masatoshi Kumagai.
'CRYPTO!' - In December 2017, GMO-i committed to spending more than ¥35b or 10% of non-current assets. The aim was threefold: to set up a bitcoin ‘mining’ headquarters in Switzerland (with the ‘mining’ operations being carried out at an undisclosed location in Scandinavia), to develop proprietary state-of-the-art 7nm-node 'mining chips', and, in due course, to sell GMO-branded and developed ‘mining’ machines. The move was hailed in the ‘crypto’ fraternity as GMO-i became the largest non-Chinese and the first well-established Internet conglomerate to make a major investment in ‘cryptocurrency’ infrastructure.

OUTSTANDING - Following the December 2017 announcement, trading volumes spiked into ‘Overtraded’ territory - as measured by our Volume Score. Many investors saw GMO-i shares as a safer way of gaining exposure to 'cryptocurrencies', even as the price of bitcoin began to subside. By early June 2018, GMO-i’s shares had reached a closing price of ¥3,020: up 157% from the low of the prior year and outperforming TOPIX by 135%. Whatever the primary driver of this outstanding performance, each of our trio of investor groups no doubt felt vindicated in their approach to the stock.
CRYPTO CLOSURE - On December 25th 2018, GMO-i’s shares reached a new 52-week low of ¥1,325, a decline of 56% from the June high. Year to date, GMO-i shares have now declined by 31%, underperforming TOPIX by nine percentage points. On the same day, GMO-i announced that the company would post an extraordinary ¥35.5b loss for the fourth quarter, incurring an impairment loss of ¥11.5b in relation to the closure of the Swiss ‘mining’ headquarters and a loss of ¥24b to cover the closure of the ‘mining chip' and 'mining machine' development, manufacturing and sales businesses. GMO-i will continue to ‘mine’ bitcoin from its Tokyo headquarters and intends to relocate the 'mining' centre from Scandinavia to (sic) 'a region that will allow us to secure cleaner and less expensive power supply, but we have not yet decided the details’. Unlisted subsidiary GMO Coin's 'cryptocurrency' exchange will also continue to operate, and the previously-announced plans to launch a ¥-based ‘stablecoin’ in 2019 will proceed. In the two trading days following this announcement, the shares have recovered 13% to ¥1,505. 
RAIDING THE LISTCO PIGGY BANK - As we shall relate, this is the second time since listing that GMO-i has written off a significant new business venture which the company had commenced only a short time before. In both cases, the company was forced to sell stakes in its listed consolidated subsidiaries to offset the resulting losses. On this occasion, the sale of shares in GMO Financial (7177 JP) (GMO-F) on September 25 2018, and GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP) (GMO-PG) on December 17 2018, raised a combined ¥55.6b and, after the deduction of the yet-to-be-determined tax on the realised gains, should more than offset the ‘crypto’ losses. According to CFO Yasuda, any surplus from this exercise will be used to pay down debt. Also discussed below and in keeping with this GMO-i ‘MO’, in 2015, the company twice sold shares in its listed subsidiaries to ‘smooth out' less-than-desirable operating results.

In the DETAIL section below we will cover the following topics:-
I: THE GMO-i TRACK RECORD - TOP-DOWN v. BOTTOM UP

BOTTOM LINE No. 1: NET INCOME
BOTTOM LINE No.2 - COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

II: THE GMO-i BUSINESS MODEL - THROWING JELLY AT THE WALL
III: THE GMO-i BALANCE SHEET - NOT SO HAPPY RETURNS
IV: THE GMO-i CASH FLOW - DEBT-FUNDED CASH PILE
V: THE GMO-i VALUATION - TWO METHODS &gt; SAME RESULT

VALUATION METHOD No.1 - THE 'LISTCO DISCOUNT'
VALUATION METHOD No.2 - RESIDUAL INCOME



CONCLUSION - For those unable or unwilling to read further, we conclude that GMO-i 'rump' is a grossly-overrated business. Despite having started and spun off several valuable GMO Group entities, CEO Kumagai bears responsibility for two decades of serial and very poorly-timed ‘mal-investments’. As a result, the stock market has, except for the ‘cryptocurrency’-induced frenzy of the first six months of 2018, historically not accorded GMO-i any premium for future growth, and has correctly looked beyond the ‘siren song’ of the ‘HoldCo discount’. According to the two valuation methodologies described below, the company is, however, fairly valued at the current share price of ¥1,460. Investors looking for a return to the market-implied 3% perpetual growth rate of mid–2018 are likely to be as disappointed as those wishing for BTC to triple from here.


GMO Internet (9447 JP) - Grossly or Modestly Overrated?

THANKSGIVING RALLY - Japan's equity markets have recovered by 2.4% since 16th November and are now 5% above the October 29th low, but the market composite still needs to break above the previous rally-high of 9th November for the rally to be sustained. In US$ terms the recovery has been more muted, and the market is 9% below the October high and US$1 trillion or 14.5% down from January 23rd. Relative Strength has risen to the highest point since October 26th and suggests a short-term peak is nearing and the market has yet to exit from the 'Death Cross'.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/846/original/2018-12-02_07-34-53.png?1543703710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71846"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/847/original/2018-12-02_07-49-25.png?1543704574" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71847"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/848/original/2018-12-02_07-54-12.png?1543704863" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71848"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
OUTLOOK - Japanese equities are attractively priced relative to trailing earnings. However, the market is in the process of discounting the end of the current eight-quarter-long upcycle. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to be slowing the rate of an intended tapering of its ultra-loose monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve is, at least verbally, tempering the pace of its quantitative tightening. As a result, the USD/JPY exchange rate should continue to weaken, as has been the case in recent weeks, although other cross-rates will be supportive of corporate earnings. One-quarter of market operating income comes from companies in the auto and telecommunications sectors and are under threat from global and local 'forces', respectively. A further 15% of operating profits are attributed to financial sectors and cannot be expected to rise while under the 'yolk' of the BoJ's 'ZIRP' policies. Aside from the many stock-specific investments that are on offer in Japan, the market overall should remain underweighted in global portfolios.  
</div>
In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2287" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/753" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a>.

THANKSGIVING RALLY - Japan's equity markets have recovered by 2.4% since 16th November and are now 5% above the October 29th low, but the market composite still needs to break above the previous rally-high of 9th November for the rally to be sustained. In US$ terms the recovery has been more muted, and the market is 9% below the October high and US$1 trillion or 14.5% down from January 23rd. Relative Strength has risen to the highest point since October 26th and suggests a short-term peak is nearing and the market has yet to exit from the 'Death Cross'.



Source: Japan Analytics

OUTLOOK - Japanese equities are attractively priced relative to trailing earnings. However, the market is in the process of discounting the end of the current eight-quarter-long upcycle. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to be slowing the rate of an intended tapering of its ultra-loose monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve is, at least verbally, tempering the pace of its quantitative tightening. As a result, the USD/JPY exchange rate should continue to weaken, as has been the case in recent weeks, although other cross-rates will be supportive of corporate earnings. One-quarter of market operating income comes from companies in the auto and telecommunications sectors and are under threat from global and local 'forces', respectively. A further 15% of operating profits are attributed to financial sectors and cannot be expected to rise while under the 'yolk' of the BoJ's 'ZIRP' policies. Aside from the many stock-specific investments that are on offer in Japan, the market overall should remain underweighted in global portfolios.  

In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on Pola Orbis (4927 JP) and Kyocera (6971 JP).

Japan: Fortnightly Update - Thanksgiving Rally

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - Our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. NOVEMBER 11TH OUTLIERS - Of the positive outliers featured two weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a> was unchanged over the last nine trading days, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/410" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> have risen by 15$ and 4%, respectively. Overall our list of Large Cap Outliers has declined by 3% with the worst performers being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a> (-20%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26753" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26753:1">RENOVA (9519 JP)</a> (-17%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1301" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1301:1">Infomart (2492 JP)</a> (-16%). The negative outliers also declined by 3% with the 'fallen angels' <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2829" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2829:1">UT (2146 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7431" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1">Outsourcing (2427 JP)</a> continuing their descent.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/098/original/2018-11-25_14-18-26.png?1543123178" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71098"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/099/original/2018-11-25_14-19-26.png?1543123202" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71099"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. </div>

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - Our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. NOVEMBER 11TH OUTLIERS - Of the positive outliers featured two weeks ago, Workman (7564 JP) was unchanged over the last nine trading days, while SanBio (4592 JP) and Goldwin (8111 JP) have risen by 15$ and 4%, respectively. Overall our list of Large Cap Outliers has declined by 3% with the worst performers being Descente (8114 JP) (-20%), RENOVA (9519 JP) (-17%) and Infomart (2492 JP) (-16%). The negative outliers also declined by 3% with the 'fallen angels' UT (2146 JP), ZOZO (3092 JP) and Outsourcing (2427 JP) continuing their descent.Source: Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Bitcoin Bust, Mitsui M&S & Euro ¥ CBs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alpine/Alps, Renault, Takeda, Trade Me, Holcim, Toshiba, GMO

Japan

GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. provides credit card transaction services for electronic commerce firms.

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GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)

Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the...

Campbell Gunn

GMO Internet (9447 JP) - Grossly or Modestly Overrated?

THE GMO INTERNET (9449 JP) STORY - GMO internet (GMO-i) has attracted much attention in the last eighteen months from an unusual trinity of value,...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Fortnightly Update - Thanksgiving Rally

THANKSGIVING RALLY - Japan's equity markets have recovered by 2.4% since 16th November and are now 5% above the October 29th low, but the market...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Bitcoin Bust, Mitsui M&S & Euro ¥ CBs

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - Our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120...

Campbell Gunn

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alpine/Alps, Renault, Takeda, Trade Me, Holcim, Toshiba, GMO

Last Week in Event SPACE ... In the sordid and ongoing war for the hearts and minds of investors in Alpine Electronics (6816 JP), ISS says take...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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