Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Hankyung Business Daily reported today that KT Corp (030200 KS) is close to selling its 36.9% controlling stake in Kt Submarine (060370 KS) to LS Cable &amp; System.</li>
<li>Once the KT Submarine deal is completed, this could positively impact KT Corp's dividends.</li>
<li>KT Corp's selling of its controlling stake in KT Submarine would fit along its restructuring plans to sell off some businesses that are considered non-core.</li>
</ul>


Hankyung Business Daily reported today that KT Corp (030200 KS) is close to selling its 36.9% controlling stake in Kt Submarine (060370 KS) to LS Cable &amp; System.
Once the KT Submarine deal is completed, this could positively impact KT Corp's dividends.
KT Corp's selling of its controlling stake in KT Submarine would fit along its restructuring plans to sell off some businesses that are considered non-core.


KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Youzan, Mcdonald's, Beijing Jingneng, Ricoh, Melco Resorts, LG Corp

<div>
<p>On 26 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> officially announced it would be splitting itself into two - the core electronics, chemicals, and telecoms business will stay in LG Corp, with the remaining non-core holdings transferred to NewCo, a new holding company, and subsequently spin-off to LG Corp shareholders.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> discussed this transaction beginning with <em><a href="https://skr.ma/BZgGp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LG Group Announces the Formation of LG NewCo &amp; Split of 4 Companies from LG Corp</a></em>, and I added my thoughts in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/Tdpxs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction: LG Corp's Decade-Low Stub</a></em>.</p>
<p>The benefits of the demerger are projected to be two-fold. The NewCo is expected to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of the business (potentially re-rating the company); but also as an interim step to facilitate share swaps with the family with the two holding companies. This has been speculated since Koo Kwang-mo was inaugurated as chairman in 2018. NewCo's board of directors will be headed by Koo Bon-joon, the uncle of Kwang-Mo. </p>
<p>The remaining Holdco will focus on steady earnings from its core operations (electronics, chemicals, and telecom), and via new opportunities. LG provided further rationale for the spin-off in its 4Q20 results - that is attached at the bottom of this insight.</p>
<p>It was noted, however, that LG Corp would maintain 91.5% of the group's assets - ₩9,779.8bn - as at 3Q20. This raises the question: just how much value can be unlocked by via spinning off ~8%?</p>
<p>The NAV and implied stub <em>widened</em> after the demerger announcement, and following a tepid reversal, narrowed around the time <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> announced a US$1bn JV with Magna on the 22 December to make electric car gears.</p>
</div>
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/369/original/image_5243749941614909471522.png?1614909471" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192369"></figure>
<p style="text-align: left;">Source: my calcs, CapIQ</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>On the 15 December, US-headquartered Whitebox said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The spin-off does nothing to address LG’s most pressing issue, which is the unprecedented discount at which the company trades relative to its assets and, accordingly, inferior return to shareholders.</p>
<p>Despite clearly favorable alternatives, the board (of LG) has unanimously approved a plan that, in our view, sacrifices minority shareholder return in order to resolve a family succession issue.</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div>
<p>Whitebox has now issued a 30-page PowerPoint detailing its objection to the demerger. It's worth a read.</p>
</div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
<div>
<p></p>
</div>


On 26 November, LG Corp (003550 KS) officially announced it would be splitting itself into two - the core electronics, chemicals, and telecoms business will stay in LG Corp, with the remaining non-core holdings transferred to NewCo, a new holding company, and subsequently spin-off to LG Corp shareholders.
Douglas Kim discussed this transaction beginning with LG Group Announces the Formation of LG NewCo &amp; Split of 4 Companies from LG Corp, and I added my thoughts in 2021 High Conviction: LG Corp's Decade-Low Stub.
The benefits of the demerger are projected to be two-fold. The NewCo is expected to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of the business (potentially re-rating the company); but also as an interim step to facilitate share swaps with the family with the two holding companies. This has been speculated since Koo Kwang-mo was inaugurated as chairman in 2018. NewCo's board of directors will be headed by Koo Bon-joon, the uncle of Kwang-Mo. 
The remaining Holdco will focus on steady earnings from its core operations (electronics, chemicals, and telecom), and via new opportunities. LG provided further rationale for the spin-off in its 4Q20 results - that is attached at the bottom of this insight.
It was noted, however, that LG Corp would maintain 91.5% of the group's assets - ₩9,779.8bn - as at 3Q20. This raises the question: just how much value can be unlocked by via spinning off ~8%?
The NAV and implied stub widened after the demerger announcement, and following a tepid reversal, narrowed around the time LG Electronics (066570 KS) announced a US$1bn JV with Magna on the 22 December to make electric car gears.



Source: my calcs, CapIQ


On the 15 December, US-headquartered Whitebox said:

The spin-off does nothing to address LG’s most pressing issue, which is the unprecedented discount at which the company trades relative to its assets and, accordingly, inferior return to shareholders.
Despite clearly favorable alternatives, the board (of LG) has unanimously approved a plan that, in our view, sacrifices minority shareholder return in order to resolve a family succession issue.



Whitebox has now issued a 30-page PowerPoint detailing its objection to the demerger. It's worth a read.

More below the fold.




LG Corp (003550 KS): Whitebox States Its Case

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>In this insight, we provide the details and controversies of the Korean New Deal Funds which were initially <a href="https://n.news.naver.com/article/005/0001358758" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on September 3rd. The total amount of the Korean New Deal is expected to be nearly 170 trillion won over five years. The Korean New Deal funds will be divided into three major areas including <strong>Policy (정책)</strong>, <strong>Infrastructure (인프라)</strong>, and<strong> Private (민간)</strong>.</p>
<p>Of the 170 trillion won, nearly 100 trillion won will be provided by the government and 70 trillion won will be provided by the private financial institutions. Because of the huge size of these funds, NPS and other major pension funds and biggest financial institution companies in Korea are expected to participate in the Korean New Deal funds.</p>
</div><p><strong>A Bubble Forming in the Korean New Deal Funds Related Stocks? </strong>In our view, a most likely view is that there could be a bubble forming in the Korean New Deal Funds related stocks in the coming weeks. Many of these stocks such as LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Naver, Kakao, Douzone Bizon, and Samsung Biologics have already performed very well since their lows in March and they could run further in the weeks ahead. </p>


In this insight, we provide the details and controversies of the Korean New Deal Funds which were initially announced on September 3rd. The total amount of the Korean New Deal is expected to be nearly 170 trillion won over five years. The Korean New Deal funds will be divided into three major areas including Policy (정책), Infrastructure (인프라), and Private (민간).
Of the 170 trillion won, nearly 100 trillion won will be provided by the government and 70 trillion won will be provided by the private financial institutions. Because of the huge size of these funds, NPS and other major pension funds and biggest financial institution companies in Korea are expected to participate in the Korean New Deal funds.
A Bubble Forming in the Korean New Deal Funds Related Stocks? In our view, a most likely view is that there could be a bubble forming in the Korean New Deal Funds related stocks in the coming weeks. Many of these stocks such as LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Naver, Kakao, Douzone Bizon, and Samsung Biologics have already performed very well since their lows in March and they could run further in the weeks ahead. 

A Bubble Forming in the Korean New Deal Funds Related Stocks? Details & Controversies

South Korea

LS Corp is a holding company, which operated subsidiaries including LS Industrial Systems, LS Cable, LS-Nikko Copper and LS Mtron.

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LS Corp (006260 KS)

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

We currently forecast 52 changes for the KOSPI Size Indices. While there are few passive assets tracking these indices, they are used by active...

Brian Freitas

KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System

Hankyung Business Daily reported today that KT Corp (030200 KS) is close to selling its 36.9% controlling stake in Kt Submarine (060370 KS) to LS...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Youzan, Mcdonald's, Beijing Jingneng, Ricoh, Melco Resorts, LG Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

LG Corp (003550 KS): Whitebox States Its Case

A ~64% discount to NAV - or 66% if using Whitebox's calcs - is non-sensical, and provides a good risk-adjusted return. The downside appears limited...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

We currently forecast 52 changes for the KOSPI Size Indices. While there are few passive assets tracking these indices, they are used by active...

Brian Freitas

KT Corp: Close to Selling Its Subsidiary KT Submarine to LS Cable & System

Hankyung Business Daily reported today that KT Corp (030200 KS) is close to selling its 36.9% controlling stake in Kt Submarine (060370 KS) to LS...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Youzan, Mcdonald's, Beijing Jingneng, Ricoh, Melco Resorts, LG Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

LG Corp (003550 KS): Whitebox States Its Case

A ~64% discount to NAV - or 66% if using Whitebox's calcs - is non-sensical, and provides a good risk-adjusted return. The downside appears limited...

David Blennerhassett

A Bubble Forming in the Korean New Deal Funds Related Stocks? Details & Controversies

In this insight, we provide the details and controversies of the Korean New Deal Funds which were initially announced on September 3rd. The total...

Douglas Kim