Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.</li>
<li>Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.</li>
<li>Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.
Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.
Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.


Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97757" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97798" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a>.  </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case and Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case.  
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97757" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
In Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.
The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.


<ul>
<li>Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.</li>
<li>Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.</li>
<li>Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.</li>
</ul>


Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.
Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.
Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.


Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan's supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges from new competition in e-commerce but especially drugstores. We highlight the winners in...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.

Arun George

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.

Arun George

Outlook for Japanese Retail in 2023

Most Japanese retailers can look forward to a good year in 2023 but there will be challenges for formats like supermarkets where consolidation is...

Michael Causton

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