Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>In our previous note, link <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-high-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>,  we spoke about the positive aspects of the deal. In this note we will talk about the negative aspects</li>
</ul>


PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.
It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. 
In our previous note, link here,  we spoke about the positive aspects of the deal. In this note we will talk about the negative aspects


Cisarua Mountain Dairy  (Cimory) IPO - The Negatives - Losing Market Share, Margin Sustainability

<ul>
<li>PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO. </li>
<li>It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>In addition, the company also has a presence in the flavored milk segment, fresh white milk segment, chilled processed meat and frozen processed meat sub-categories.</li>
</ul>


PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO. 
It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. 
In addition, the company also has a presence in the flavored milk segment, fresh white milk segment, chilled processed meat and frozen processed meat sub-categories.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy  (Cimory) IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, High Market Share

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.</p></div><div>
<p>The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.</p>
<p>With 6 days to go in the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> as a high probability index addition. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> is the lowest ranked index constituent and is a likely deletion from the index.</p>
<p>There is a (slim) possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> being deleted from the index if it fails the annualised traded value test. As it stands, it is touch and go for the stock.</p>
<p>Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> and sell over 3.5 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a>. If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is deleted instead, passive trackers will need to sell 7 days of ADV on the stock.</p>
<p>In terms of delivery volumes, the impact is much larger with passive trackers needing to buy 8.5 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>, while selling either 8.8 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> or 13 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a>.</p>
</div>

The S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.
The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
With 6 days to go in the review period, we see Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) as a high probability index addition. Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) is the lowest ranked index constituent and is a likely deletion from the index.
There is a (slim) possibility of Nestle India (NEST IN) being deleted from the index if it fails the annualised traded value test. As it stands, it is touch and go for the stock.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV on Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) and sell over 3.5 days of ADV on Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN). If Nestle India (NEST IN) is deleted instead, passive trackers will need to sell 7 days of ADV on the stock.
In terms of delivery volumes, the impact is much larger with passive trackers needing to buy 8.5 days on Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN), while selling either 8.8 days on Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) or 13 days on Nestle India (NEST IN).


Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Should Be Added, Deletion Has An Interesting Option

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-1">The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </div></div><div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-2"></div></div><div><p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.</p></div><div><p>Companies covered include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a></p></div>

The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.Companies covered include Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) / Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.</p>

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

India

Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks.  The Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general merchandise items.

Tata Consumer Products Limited produces food and beverage products. The Company manufactures, sells, and exports tea, coffee, salt, oil, pulses, spices, and food products. Tata Consumer Products serves customers worldwide.

Ruchi Soya Industries Limited manufactures soybean oil, vanaspati vegetable fat, texturized soya protein, soya flour and other soya products.  The Group has also developed Palm stearin and Palm olein cooking oils.

Hatsun Agro Products Limited manufactures skimmed milk powder, skimmed milk powd er blends, instant skimmed milk powder, whole milk powder, and full cream milk p owder.

Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. is a diversified manufacturing and trading company. The Company owns plantations of tea, coffee, cardamam, cocoa, rubber and palm oil in different countries like India, Thailand, Indonesia and Tanzania. Bombay Burmah manufactures "Formica" brand of laminates and it also manufactures precision springs, analytical & precision balances and asbestos cement.

Godrej Agrovet Limited (GAVL) operates as an animal feed and agribusiness company. The Company specializes in poultry processing, animal feed, oil palm plantations, crop protection, agri inputs, and dairy products. GAVL serves customers worldwide.

Zydus Wellness Ltd. processes dairy products.  The Company produces margarine, butter, and cheese.

Shree Renuka Sugars Limited is an integrated manufacturing company with a focus on sugar, distillery products and ethanol. The Company also generates power which is used for captive consumption besides being sold externally.

LT Foods Limited processes food products. The Company produces and distributes brown, white, steamed, parboiled, organic, quick cooking, and flavored rice. LT Foods serves customers worldwide.

Triveni Engineering & Industries Limited conducts operations in sugar manufacturing and engineered-to-order mechanical equipment.

Triveni Engineering & Industries (TRE IN)

The Kraft Heinz Company provides food services. The Company offers foods including ketchup, sauces, meals, snacks, and other food products.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Muyuan Foodstuff Company Limited breeds and sells boars and commodity pigs. The Company's main products include boars, and commodity pigs.

Uni-President Enterprises Corp. manufactures, processes, and markets instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, soft drinks, soy sauces, canned pickles, meat products, animal feeds, aquatic feeds, edible oils, bread, cakes, and desserts.  The Company also operates vending machines and food distribution centers in Taiwan.

General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded and packaged consumer foods worldwide. The Company also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial baking industries.

Ajinomoto Co., Inc. produces and sells a variety of food products, including seasonings, edible oils, processed foods, beverages, and dairy products.  The Company also develops and manufactures pharmaceuticals, amino acids, and specialty chemicals.

Bunge Limited is a global agribusiness and food company. The Company buys, sells, stores, transports and processes oilseeds and grains to make protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial customers and consumers. Bunge also produces sugar and ethanol from sugarcane, mills wheat and corn, and sells fertilizer.

Hormel Foods Corporation manufactures and markets consumer-branded meat and food products.  The Company processes meat and poultry products and produces a variety of prepared foods.  Hormel markets its products around the world under a variety of branded names.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products. The Company processes oilseeds, corn, milo, oats, barley, peanuts, and wheat. Archer-Daniels-Midland also processes produce products which have primarily two end uses including food or feed ingredients.

McCormick & Company, Inc. manufactures, markets, and distributes flavor products (including spices, herbs, extracts, seasonings and flavorings) and other specialty food products to the food industry. The Company sells to retail stores, food manufacturers, and food service businesses.

Nestle India Ltd. manufactures brand name milk products and other food products. The Company's products include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces.

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Nestle India (NEST IN)

Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Should Be Added, Deletion Has An Interesting Option

Near the end of the review period, we see Wipro as a high probability add. Bajaj Auto could be deleted as the lowest ranked constituent, but Nestle...

Brian Freitas

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) /...

Pranav Bhavsar

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

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