External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We recently interacted with Metro Brands’ (MBL) CFO Mr Kaushal Parekh</li><li>The focus remains on strengthening the value proposition across all brands</li><li>This is reflected in MBL’s best-in-class growth and capital allocation choices (10-year revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 14/18% with FCF/PAT conversion of ~80%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently interacted with Metro Brands’ (MBL) CFO Mr Kaushal ParekhThe focus remains on strengthening the value proposition across all brandsThis is reflected in MBL’s best-in-class growth and capital allocation choices (10-year revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 14/18% with FCF/PAT conversion of ~80%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metro Brands - KPI Normalisation to Continue, Thesis on Track. Maintain SELL

<ul><li>If one were to write a rubric on retailing, Metro Brands (MBL) should certainly be consulted</li><li>It’s among the elite few to have balanced growth and capital allocation well</li><li>It sports a decadal revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 14/18% with FCF/PAT conversion of ~80% (organized EBITDA share: 17%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

If one were to write a rubric on retailing, Metro Brands (MBL) should certainly be consultedIt’s among the elite few to have balanced growth and capital allocation wellIt sports a decadal revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 14/18% with FCF/PAT conversion of ~80% (organized EBITDA share: 17%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metro Brands (Initiating Coverage): In-Sync Product-Market Fit, Oversized Valuation. SELL

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~11% YoY in Q1FY25</li><li>However, a few exceptional names drive up the average</li><li>In retail, ex-F&amp;G and value fashion, growth pencilled in is an anaemic 6% as footfalls/demand gets impacted due to (1) the heatwave and (2) fewer wedding days</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~11% YoY in Q1FY25However, a few exceptional names drive up the averageIn retail, ex-F&amp;G and value fashion, growth pencilled in is an anaemic 6% as footfalls/demand gets impacted due to (1) the heatwave and (2) fewer wedding daysContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary: Muted Demand, Value Plays Remain Outliers

<ul><li>We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categories</li><li>Despite a promising start to the festive season, most categories (excluding jewellery and travel) seem to have hit the snooze button</li><li>Several factors contribute to this, including (1) the normalisation of ticket sizes and purchase frequencies, (2) weak footfalls (on a per sq foot basis), and (3) a trend towards downtrading</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categoriesDespite a promising start to the festive season, most categories (excluding jewellery and travel) seem to have hit the snooze buttonSeveral factors contribute to this, including (1) the normalisation of ticket sizes and purchase frequencies, (2) weak footfalls (on a per sq foot basis), and (3) a trend towards downtradingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Festive temperature check: Festive mood sombre

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

India

Metro Brands Limited designs and manufactures footwear. The Company offers men's and women's footwear, footcare products, and related accessories. Metro Brands serves customers in India.

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Metro Brands (METROBRA IN)

Metro Brands - KPI Normalisation to Continue, Thesis on Track. Maintain SELL

We recently interacted with Metro Brands’ (MBL) CFO Mr Kaushal Parekh. The focus remains on strengthening the value proposition across all brands

HDFC Securities

Metro Brands (Initiating Coverage): In-Sync Product-Market Fit, Oversized Valuation. SELL

If one were to write a rubric on retailing, Metro Brands (MBL) should certainly be consulted. It’s among the elite few to have balanced growth and...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary: Muted Demand, Value Plays Remain Outliers

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~11% YoY in Q1FY25. However, a few exceptional names drive up the average

HDFC Securities

Festive temperature check: Festive mood sombre

We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categories

HDFC Securities

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

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