Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 represented a 140% increase from 2021.</li>
<li>Although the total amount of share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 seems fairly large, this represented only 0.24% of total market caps of Korean companies. </li>
<li>We also provide a list of seven Korean companies that have been targeted by activist investors  to cancel more shares and improve corporate governance. </li>
</ul>


The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 represented a 140% increase from 2021.
Although the total amount of share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 seems fairly large, this represented only 0.24% of total market caps of Korean companies. 
We also provide a list of seven Korean companies that have been targeted by activist investors  to cancel more shares and improve corporate governance. 


A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures' spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.</li>
<li>Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures' calendar spread trading.</li>
<li>Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.</li>
</ul>


The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures' spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.
Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures' calendar spread trading.
Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.


Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media that Viva Republica has sent several RFPs to several large domestic securities companies to be underwriters of a potential IPO in 2024. </li>
<li>Viva Republica is one of the largest Korean fintech companies. Market value of Viva Republica is estimated at more than 9 trillion won.</li>
<li>E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing of Viva Republica. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media that Viva Republica has sent several RFPs to several large domestic securities companies to be underwriters of a potential IPO in 2024. 
Viva Republica is one of the largest Korean fintech companies. Market value of Viva Republica is estimated at more than 9 trillion won.
E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing of Viva Republica. 


Key Beneficiaries of a Potential Viva Republica IPO in 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean banks in 2024. </li>
<li>On average, if H-Index declines below 5,699, then the majority of the investors on these H-Index could start to incur major losses starting 1Q 2024. </li>
<li>Amid challenges of lower interest rates expectations and higher losses from ELS products, major Korean banks could be more hesitant on share buybacks and increasing their dividends in 1H 2024.</li>
</ul>


The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean banks in 2024. 
On average, if H-Index declines below 5,699, then the majority of the investors on these H-Index could start to incur major losses starting 1Q 2024. 
Amid challenges of lower interest rates expectations and higher losses from ELS products, major Korean banks could be more hesitant on share buybacks and increasing their dividends in 1H 2024.


ELS Losses for HSCEI Index Could Result in Lowering Dividend Expectations for Korean Banks in 2024

<ul>
<li>The FSS has launched a formal investigation into KB Kookmin bank due to potentially massive losses related to the HSCEI linked ELS products. </li>
<li>The three major listed banking groups (KB Financial, Shinhan Financial, and Hana Financial) could be burdened with nearly 86% of the HSCEI linked ELS losses (close to 2.6 trillion won). </li>
<li>Major Korean banks may need a <em>"Hail Mary"</em> pass to avoid this disaster. Such positive outlook would include sharply rising HSCEI index in 2024, similar to what happened in 2016. </li>
</ul>


The FSS has launched a formal investigation into KB Kookmin bank due to potentially massive losses related to the HSCEI linked ELS products. 
The three major listed banking groups (KB Financial, Shinhan Financial, and Hana Financial) could be burdened with nearly 86% of the HSCEI linked ELS losses (close to 2.6 trillion won). 
Major Korean banks may need a "Hail Mary" pass to avoid this disaster. Such positive outlook would include sharply rising HSCEI index in 2024, similar to what happened in 2016. 


ELS Losses Related to Hong Kong H-Index Could Top Nearly 3 Trillion Won for Major Korean Banks in 2024

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hana Financial (086790 KS)

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

I've obtained the latest list of companies rescheduling dividend record dates to next year. Please check the attached Excel file. In the KOSPI, 119...

Sanghyun Park

Key Beneficiaries of a Potential Viva Republica IPO in 2024

E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing...

Douglas Kim

ELS Losses for HSCEI Index Could Result in Lowering Dividend Expectations for Korean Banks in 2024

The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023

The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in...

Douglas Kim

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

I've obtained the latest list of companies rescheduling dividend record dates to next year. Please check the attached Excel file. In the KOSPI, 119...

Sanghyun Park

Key Beneficiaries of a Potential Viva Republica IPO in 2024

E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing...

Douglas Kim

ELS Losses for HSCEI Index Could Result in Lowering Dividend Expectations for Korean Banks in 2024

The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean...

Douglas Kim

ELS Losses Related to Hong Kong H-Index Could Top Nearly 3 Trillion Won for Major Korean Banks in 2024

The FSS has launched a formal investigation into KB Kookmin bank due to potentially massive losses related to the HSCEI linked ELS products.

Douglas Kim