Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Equity Capital Markets

Kalyan Jewellers / Equity Capital Markets

In our prior note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-kalyan-jewelers-nothing-differentiated-and-nowhere-near-to-market-leader-tanishq" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48814" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO | Kalyan Jewelers: Nothing Differentiated and Nowhere Near to Market Leader Tanishq</a>, we had detailed our thesis around <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalyan-jewellers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29714:1" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers (KALYAN IN)</a> and had commented that valuation will play a pivotal role in determining our recommendation on the IPO. With the IPO valuation out now, we discuss in detail our stance.

In our prior note Pre-IPO | Kalyan Jewelers: Nothing Differentiated and Nowhere Near to Market Leader Tanishq, we had detailed our thesis around Kalyan Jewellers (KALYAN IN) and had commented that valuation will play a pivotal role in determining our recommendation on the IPO. With the IPO valuation out now, we discuss in detail our stance.

IPO | Kalyan Jewelers: Valuation Too Premium Relative to Closest Listed Peer TBZ

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kalyan Jewellers aims to raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993 and is backed by Warburg Pincus.The company is one of the largest jewellery companies in India based on FY20 (year ending Mar 2020) revenue, as per the Technopak report. As of Dec 2020, it had 107 showrooms across 21 states and union territories in India. It also had 30 showrooms in the Middle East.Earnings haven’t grown much over the past few years, as the company appears to have suffered from a strategic misstep. Over 9M21, revenue declined by 30.6% and the company suffered a loss.Having said that, the industry remains highly fragmented with ample scope remaining for organised players, like Kalyan, to gain market share. We have looked at the background of the company in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kalyan-jewellers-pre-ipo-strategy-missteps-led-to-earnings-flatlining" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers Pre-IPO - Strategy missteps led to earnings flatlining</a>. In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about updates since our last note.

Kalyan Jewellers aims to raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993 and is backed by Warburg Pincus.The company is one of the largest jewellery companies in India based on FY20 (year ending Mar 2020) revenue, as per the Technopak report. As of Dec 2020, it had 107 showrooms across 21 states and union territories in India. It also had 30 showrooms in the Middle East.Earnings haven’t grown much over the past few years, as the company appears to have suffered from a strategic misstep. Over 9M21, revenue declined by 30.6% and the company suffered a loss.Having said that, the industry remains highly fragmented with ample scope remaining for organised players, like Kalyan, to gain market share. We have looked at the background of the company in our previous note, Kalyan Jewellers Pre-IPO - Strategy missteps led to earnings flatlining. In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about updates since our last note.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalyan-jewellers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29714:1" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers (KALYAN IN)</a> is a pan-India jeweler with 107 showrooms located across 21 states in India. It also has a sizeable presence in Middle East with 30 showrooms across UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Our research on the jewelry industry in India suggests that except for Tanishq [owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>] which has carved out itself as a standout premium brand, most other pan-India and organized players have limited differentiation relative to competition. Kalyan is no exception. Its operational metrics suggest that it lags the market leader, Tanishq, by a wide margin despite being one of the largest organized players in the sector in terms of revenue and market share.

Kalyan Jewellers (KALYAN IN) is a pan-India jeweler with 107 showrooms located across 21 states in India. It also has a sizeable presence in Middle East with 30 showrooms across UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Our research on the jewelry industry in India suggests that except for Tanishq [owned by Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)] which has carved out itself as a standout premium brand, most other pan-India and organized players have limited differentiation relative to competition. Kalyan is no exception. Its operational metrics suggest that it lags the market leader, Tanishq, by a wide margin despite being one of the largest organized players in the sector in terms of revenue and market share. 

Pre-IPO | Kalyan Jewelers: Nothing Differentiated and Nowhere Near to Market Leader Tanishq

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tata Consumer Products / Equity Bottom-Up

In this insight, we discuss  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a> 's potential to outperform peers in the India consumer sector in terms of revenue and profit growth over the next few years. Its inclusion in India's Nifty index from March 31st would attract more investor attention and investment to the stock. The predominantly beverages (branded tea, coffee) company that competes with global multinationals is now expanding its foods business to address the highly unorganised but growing domestic packaged kitchen staples and snacks/breakfast segment. From Tata salt to Tata Starbucks, this consumer goods company already have a wide array of brands under its portfolio. Leveraging on the goodwill enjoyed by the Tata brand in India and by expanding its reach and distribution wider, Tata Consumer is fast-tracking growth in the foods segment. The potential is immense, competition (national level) is scant and the young company (in its new avatar, name and structure) can make it big if it successfully adapts few pages from the playbook of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>- another Tata enterprise that leveraged quality and brand to take on large unorganised consumer sectors.

In this insight, we discuss  Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) 's potential to outperform peers in the India consumer sector in terms of revenue and profit growth over the next few years. Its inclusion in India's Nifty index from March 31st would attract more investor attention and investment to the stock. The predominantly beverages (branded tea, coffee) company that competes with global multinationals is now expanding its foods business to address the highly unorganised but growing domestic packaged kitchen staples and snacks/breakfast segment. From Tata salt to Tata Starbucks, this consumer goods company already have a wide array of brands under its portfolio. Leveraging on the goodwill enjoyed by the Tata brand in India and by expanding its reach and distribution wider, Tata Consumer is fast-tracking growth in the foods segment. The potential is immense, competition (national level) is scant and the young company (in its new avatar, name and structure) can make it big if it successfully adapts few pages from the playbook of Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)- another Tata enterprise that leveraged quality and brand to take on large unorganised consumer sectors. 

Tata Consumer (TATACONS IN): Index Inclusion Adds Further Flavour. Tasty Mix.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

We have had a bullish stance for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a> for over two years now, where channel interactions led us to believe that growth may beat consensus highlighted in our insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/titan-co-ltd-ttan-in-channel-checks-suggest-revenue-growth-might-beat-consensus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26200" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Channel Checks Suggest Revenue Growth Might Beat Consensus</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/titan-ttan-in-jewellery-margins-surprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36351" rel="noopener">Titan (TTAN IN) | Jewellery Margins Surprise</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-jewellery-retailers-titan-vs-chow-tai-fook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40289" rel="noopener">Asian Jewellery Retailers | Titan Vs Chow Tai Fook</a> which was done during the pandemic.
Till now,  we expected TTAN to emerge stronger - with a higher market share as the most trusted and the safest player in the market. 
However, Q3 performance indicates that the "Strong might not be getting Stronger", with the COVID tailwinds of trust and safety fading and consensus still upgrading revenues, we believe that a potential disappointment lies ahead.

We have had a bullish stance for Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) for over two years now, where channel interactions led us to believe that growth may beat consensus highlighted in our insights Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Channel Checks Suggest Revenue Growth Might Beat Consensus , Titan (TTAN IN) | Jewellery Margins Surprise and Asian Jewellery Retailers | Titan Vs Chow Tai Fook which was done during the pandemic.
Till now,  we expected TTAN to emerge stronger - with a higher market share as the most trusted and the safest player in the market. 
However, Q3 performance indicates that the "Strong might not be getting Stronger", with the COVID tailwinds of trust and safety fading and consensus still upgrading revenues, we believe that a potential disappointment lies ahead. 

Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Fading Tailwinds, Potential Disappointment Lies Ahead

India

Titan Co. Ltd. manufactures and retails jewelry and watches. The Company also produces perfume for men and women.

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Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)

IPO | Kalyan Jewelers: Valuation Too Premium Relative to Closest Listed Peer TBZ

Kalyan's IPO valuation came out higher than our expectation. At >50x PE, it is valued at more than double that of its closest listed peer TBZ which...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kalyan Jewellers IPO - No Glitter

Kalyan Jewellers aims to raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993...

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO | Kalyan Jewelers: Nothing Differentiated and Nowhere Near to Market Leader Tanishq

The jewelry industry in India is highly fragmented. Kalyan has limited differentiation relative to its competitors. It also lags behind...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Tata Consumer (TATACONS IN): Index Inclusion Adds Further Flavour. Tasty Mix.

Tata consumer is fast-tracking growth in the foods business by expanding into the unorganised India kitchen staples segment and expanding its...

Devi Subhakesan

Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) | Fading Tailwinds, Potential Disappointment Lies Ahead

"Strong might not be getting Stronger", COVID tailwinds of trust and safety are fading, with consensus still upgrading revenues, we see a potential...

Pranav Bhavsar

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