Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>March 5 price action overshot passive impact. Theme-trade momentum, one-way institutional flows, and ETF rebalancing (~10% turnover) juiced the move—Hanwha Ocean -5.41%, Samsung Heavy +5.34%, HD KSOE +6.58%.</li>
<li>June’s rebalance gets spicier—another ETF, ARIRANG K-Defense ETF (449450 KS), also runs the same 20% reversion on June 13, doubling the flow impact and setting up amplified price action.</li>
<li>Key 20% reversion hits: Hanwha Ocean (SOL Shipbuilding) &amp; Hanwha Aerospace (PLUS K-Defense). ~5%p passive outflows (~0.1x DTV) expected, with Hanwha Ocean facing double impact from both ETFs.</li>
</ul>


March 5 price action overshot passive impact. Theme-trade momentum, one-way institutional flows, and ETF rebalancing (~10% turnover) juiced the move—Hanwha Ocean -5.41%, Samsung Heavy +5.34%, HD KSOE +6.58%.
June’s rebalance gets spicier—another ETF, ARIRANG K-Defense ETF (449450 KS), also runs the same 20% reversion on June 13, doubling the flow impact and setting up amplified price action.
Key 20% reversion hits: Hanwha Ocean (SOL Shipbuilding) &amp; Hanwha Aerospace (PLUS K-Defense). ~5%p passive outflows (~0.1x DTV) expected, with Hanwha Ocean facing double impact from both ETFs.


Hunting for Outsized Moves in Off-The-Radar Korean Sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding & PLUS K-Defense

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This 20% reversion and 30% cap setup creates solid flow trades. With just 13 holdings, SOL ETF’s weight swings hard—Hanwha Ocean's already pushing 27% post-rebal.</li>
<li>Constituent changes drive the biggest dislocations—still the main setup. "The other 10" names are FICS-screened by market cap (May/Nov cut), making rotations fairly predictable.</li>
<li>With AUM only ramping recently, this ETF is still in price discovery mode. Pre-positioning ahead of flows has juice, making it a prime target for aggressive flow trading.</li>
</ul>


This 20% reversion and 30% cap setup creates solid flow trades. With just 13 holdings, SOL ETF’s weight swings hard—Hanwha Ocean's already pushing 27% post-rebal.
Constituent changes drive the biggest dislocations—still the main setup. "The other 10" names are FICS-screened by market cap (May/Nov cut), making rotations fairly predictable.
With AUM only ramping recently, this ETF is still in price discovery mode. Pre-positioning ahead of flows has juice, making it a prime target for aggressive flow trading.


SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice

<ul>
<li>KEXIM ignoring this premium could be a breach of duty, making Hanwha Ocean a prime short play. With 20% of shares, past cases suggest a 5-10% pullback.</li>
<li>This play’s tougher than HMM’s. Without step-ups, timing the conversion is tricky. Early redemption’s unlikely, so the focus is on when KEXIM pulls the trigger on the conversion.</li>
<li>No hints from KEXIM on the CB conversion yet, so loading up aggressively could be risky. We’ll likely need to wait for a signal from KEXIM before jumping in.</li>
</ul>


KEXIM ignoring this premium could be a breach of duty, making Hanwha Ocean a prime short play. With 20% of shares, past cases suggest a 5-10% pullback.
This play’s tougher than HMM’s. Without step-ups, timing the conversion is tricky. Early redemption’s unlikely, so the focus is on when KEXIM pulls the trigger on the conversion.
No hints from KEXIM on the CB conversion yet, so loading up aggressively could be risky. We’ll likely need to wait for a signal from KEXIM before jumping in.


Flagging the Hanwha Ocean CB Conversion Risk (20% of Shares Out)

<ul>
<li>The chances of a Hanwha Corp-Hanwha Energy merger just dropped significantly. With the brothers now owning 43%, the merger's effectively off.</li>
<li>The three brothers face a KRW 200B gift tax bill and need liquidity. They’ll raise cash via Hanwha Energy’s IPO, with the youngest brother set to sell a 10% stake.</li>
<li>Hanwha Corp will likely fund its Hanwha Aerospace rights issue through a rights offering, using KRW 1.3 trillion from Hanwha Energy, after shutting down merger rumors.</li>
</ul>


The chances of a Hanwha Corp-Hanwha Energy merger just dropped significantly. With the brothers now owning 43%, the merger's effectively off.
The three brothers face a KRW 200B gift tax bill and need liquidity. They’ll raise cash via Hanwha Energy’s IPO, with the youngest brother set to sell a 10% stake.
Hanwha Corp will likely fund its Hanwha Aerospace rights issue through a rights offering, using KRW 1.3 trillion from Hanwha Energy, after shutting down merger rumors.


Hanwha's Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways

Equity Capital Markets

Hanwha Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hanwha Corp’s chances of raising 1T KRW without a capital call are slim, likely channeling Hanwha Energy’s 1.3T KRW into Hanwha Corp intead of Hanwha Aero.</li>
<li>A shareholder-allotted rights issue from Hanwha Corp looks likely, and with short-selling resumption, it sets up a clean arbitrage play with low risk before the official announcement.</li>
<li>Timing is key—Hanwha’s using debt for now, but likely won’t delay long. Expect Hanwha Corp’s rights issue to follow Hanwha Aero’s, probably between June and July.</li>
</ul>


Hanwha Corp’s chances of raising 1T KRW without a capital call are slim, likely channeling Hanwha Energy’s 1.3T KRW into Hanwha Corp intead of Hanwha Aero.
A shareholder-allotted rights issue from Hanwha Corp looks likely, and with short-selling resumption, it sets up a clean arbitrage play with low risk before the official announcement.
Timing is key—Hanwha’s using debt for now, but likely won’t delay long. Expect Hanwha Corp’s rights issue to follow Hanwha Aero’s, probably between June and July.


The Hidden Play in Hanwha’s Noisy Stake Reshuffling: Hanwha Corp’s Rights Issue

South Korea

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

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Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)

Hunting for Outsized Moves in Off-The-Radar Korean Sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding & PLUS K-Defense

This post dives into hunting for outsized moves in off-the-radar Korean sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding and PLUS K-Defense.

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SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice

The Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF’s ad-hoc rebalance (25% reversion after hitting the 30% cap) is locked in. Hanwha Ocean blew past 30%, so the rebal...

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Flagging the Hanwha Ocean CB Conversion Risk (20% of Shares Out)

This post highlights the Hanwha Ocean CB conversion risk, with nearly 20% of the shares outstanding potentially being converted.

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Hanwha's Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways

This post covers 3 major takeaways from Hanwha’s surprise gift disclosure, breaking down the key implications for the company, the family’s stake...

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The Hidden Play in Hanwha’s Noisy Stake Reshuffling: Hanwha Corp’s Rights Issue

Hanwha’s shake-up—starting with Ocean’s stake shuffle and Aerospace’s rights issue—was always about locking in family control. That got sealed...

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