Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.</li><li>What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.</li><li>Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.</li></ul>

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.

<ul><li><p>Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.</p></li><li>I think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mks-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5970" rel="noopener">Mks Instruments (MKSI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultra-clean-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19849" rel="noopener">Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichor-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26449" rel="noopener">Ichor Holdings (ICHR US)</a> are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.</li><li>The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.</li></ul>

Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.I think Mks Instruments (MKSI US), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US), and Ichor Holdings (ICHR US) are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P MidCap 400 additions by transition require market cap, float cap, sector balance, liquidity and earnings as parameters for inclusion.</li>
<li>The highest combined score from the parameters is given to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carvana-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26471:1" rel="noopener">CVNA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">HOOD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lpl-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16363:1" rel="noopener">LPLA</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entegris-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12493:1" rel="noopener">ENTG</a> which makes them acceptable candidates for addition. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ensign-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9297:1" rel="noopener">Ensign Group (ENSG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mueller-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18247:1" rel="noopener">Mueller Industries (MLI US)</a> have the highest probability of being added out of the migrations. Market cap of migration candidates is estimated to be insufficient.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P MidCap 400 additions by transition require market cap, float cap, sector balance, liquidity and earnings as parameters for inclusion.
The highest combined score from the parameters is given to CVNA, HOOD, LPLA and ENTG which makes them acceptable candidates for addition. 

Ensign Group (ENSG US) and Mueller Industries (MLI US) have the highest probability of being added out of the migrations. Market cap of migration candidates is estimated to be insufficient.


S&P MidCap 400 September 2024 Forecasts: Highest Score to the HOOD, CVNA, LPLA, ENTG, ENSG and MLI

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

<ul><li>Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts.</li><li>Smartphone markets continue to recover, but the demand is sluggish, and handsets should be flattish for the year. Industrial is bottoming at multiple companies, and Skyworks looks like it lost RF share to Qorvo. Telecom looks to be bottoming (NXPI).</li><li>I think it's pretty clear that the automotive cycle should be bought, not sold. And we continue to see strength in consumers (AMKR, QCOM). I am starting to like the Rambus story again, as I think their client business, the PMIC, and potentially CXL businesses could add 200m+ incremental revenue on top of the DDR5 share story in the coming years.</li></ul>

Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts.Smartphone markets continue to recover, but the demand is sluggish, and handsets should be flattish for the year. Industrial is bottoming at multiple companies, and Skyworks looks like it lost RF share to Qorvo. Telecom looks to be bottoming (NXPI).I think it's pretty clear that the automotive cycle should be bought, not sold. And we continue to see strength in consumers (AMKR, QCOM). I am starting to like the Rambus story again, as I think their client business, the PMIC, and potentially CXL businesses could add 200m+ incremental revenue on top of the DDR5 share story in the coming years.

Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)

United States

Entegris Inc. provides materials management products and services to the microelectronics industry on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides products such as wafer shippers, wafer transport and process carriers, pods, and work-in-process boxes.  Entegris also provides chemical delivery products such as valves, fittings, tubing, pipe, and containers.

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Entegris Inc (ENTG US)

MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change. What changed was that we are seeing a very large...

Fabricated Knowledge

Why Subsystems Now

I think MKSI, UCTT, and ICHR are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.

Fabricated Knowledge

S&P MidCap 400 September 2024 Forecasts: Highest Score to the HOOD, CVNA, LPLA, ENTG, ENSG and MLI

Robinhood (HOOD), Entegris (ENTG) and LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA) are amongst the highest scoring addition candidates based on mcap, fcap,...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)

Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts....

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

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