Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season</li>
<li>Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds</li>
<li>We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season
Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds
We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower  (June 2023)

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> and Taiwan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> are directly comparable</li>
<li>WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)</li>
<li>Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view</li>
</ul>


In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe T.S. Lines (TSL HK) and Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) are directly comparable
WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)
Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

<ul>
<li>Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April</li>
<li>Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April</li>
<li>Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view </li>
</ul>


Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April
Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April
Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported this AM that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.</li>
<li>The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.</li>
<li>The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported this AM that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.
The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.
The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad. 


KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging - More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Its unclear whether Yemen-based Houthis would end attacks after ceasefire</li>
<li>We've entered peak Summer shipping season from Asia to US, Europe</li>
<li>Higher spot rates have already lifted contract rates in Q2 2024</li>
</ul>


Its unclear whether Yemen-based Houthis would end attacks after ceasefire
We've entered peak Summer shipping season from Asia to US, Europe
Higher spot rates have already lifted contract rates in Q2 2024


Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn't Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

Japan

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower (June 2023)

We are gaining conviction in our view that market conditions have bottomed for long-haul carriers, and that their shares appear depressed compared...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

The obvious, direct comparable for TS Lines is Wan Hai Lines of Taiwan. In this insight we compare the two, review market conditions, and suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

April numbers show Y/Y declines in revenue and throughput are moderating. In addition, lower fuel prices could provide a tailwind in the remainder...

Tracking Traffic

KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging - More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

K-Line's CEO in a Nikkei interview said they would expand their LNG carrier fleet by 60% from here to 2026. And they said they are considering...

Travis Lundy

Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn't Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

Shares of container shipping companies have dipped in recent weeks, apparently on the expectation that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire could un-do the re...

Tracking Traffic

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