Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> announced yesterday that the company has voluntarily withdrawn the US Biologic License Application for dengue vaccine candidate (QDENGA) citing issues over data collection.</li>
<li>As per Fierce Pharma, the decision to withdraw was due to additional data requested by the FDA which were not captured by Takeda’s Phase 3 TIDES trial.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price dropped more than 2.0% during today’s trade, however, we would not be too concerned as efficacy and safety profiles of the trial has already been established.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced yesterday that the company has voluntarily withdrawn the US Biologic License Application for dengue vaccine candidate (QDENGA) citing issues over data collection.
As per Fierce Pharma, the decision to withdraw was due to additional data requested by the FDA which were not captured by Takeda’s Phase 3 TIDES trial.
Takeda’s share price dropped more than 2.0% during today’s trade, however, we would not be too concerned as efficacy and safety profiles of the trial has already been established.


Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.</li>
<li>For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.</li>
</ul>


In FY23, Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.
For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.
Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.</li>
<li>In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.</li>
<li>In January 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED developed Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III FRESCO-2 study which reduced the risk of death by 34% in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.
In addition, Fruquintinib also has been validated and accepted for regulatory review (for marketing authorization) by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week.
In January 2023, Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with HUTCHMED to further develop and commercialise Fruquintinib outside of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.


Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

Takeda has voluntarily withdrawn US BLA application for dengue vaccine citing issues over data collection. Efficacy and safety profiles of the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

Enhertu has gained blockbuster status by recording $1B+ revenue in FY23. Enhertu plus other potential cancer drug launches should contribute 45%...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda: Clinical Development of HUTCHMED’s Fruquintinib Progressing Well

Fruquintinib has demonstrated positive results in a Phase III study while it has also been validated and accepted for regulatory review (MAA) by...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

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