IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Nippon Steel Trading Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conexio-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19064:1" rel="noopener">Conexio Corp (9422 JP)</a>, Golden Energy.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elmo-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24342:1" rel="noopener">Elmo Software (ELO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, Norwest Energy. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), Conexio Corp (9422 JP), Golden Energy.
Lowest spreads - Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Elmo Software (ELO AU), OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Norwest Energy. 


Merger Arb Mondays (26 Dec) - Nippon Steel Trading, Conexio, Origin Energy, Warrego, OZ Minerals

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - Very quiet week as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a> continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conexio-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19064:1" rel="noopener">Conexio Corp (9422 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Very quiet week as VinFast (1905332D VN) continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.
Event-Driven developments  Conexio Corp (9422 JP), Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), Origin Energy (ORG AU), OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (26 Dec) - JAFCO, Nippon Steel Trading, Conexio, Origin Energy, Warrego

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a>,  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. </li>
<li>Game on as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>'s "superior" scrip proposal. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. </li>
</ul>


For OZ Minerals (OZL AU),  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. 
Game on as Warrego Energy (WGO AU) shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against Strike Energy (STX AU)'s "superior" scrip proposal. 

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> has entered into a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).</li>
<li>The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. </li>
<li>The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has entered into a SID with BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).
The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. 
The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This morning, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> announced they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$28.25/share (5wks after I said 3-6 weeks).</li>
<li>All terms are confirmed and there may be a fully-franked dividend up to A$1.75/share which would reduce terms to A$26.50. The OZL Directors unanimously recommend. </li>
<li>Anti-Trust approvals are needed in Brazil &amp; Vietnam, other standard conditions, and the OZL Scheme Meeting should be late March early April. I expect this is done.</li>
</ul>


This morning, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) announced they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$28.25/share (5wks after I said 3-6 weeks).
All terms are confirmed and there may be a fully-franked dividend up to A$1.75/share which would reduce terms to A$26.50. The OZL Directors unanimously recommend. 
Anti-Trust approvals are needed in Brazil &amp; Vietnam, other standard conditions, and the OZL Scheme Meeting should be late March early April. I expect this is done.


BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed - Timing, Risk, & Index Effects

Australia

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

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OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)

Merger Arb Mondays (26 Dec) - Nippon Steel Trading, Conexio, Origin Energy, Warrego, OZ Minerals

This week, the highest gross spreads are Genex (56.3%), Alliance Aviation (53.2%), VNET (45.4%), Nippon Steel Trading (39.6%), Conexio (27.3%),...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Dec) - JAFCO, Nippon Steel Trading, Conexio, Origin Energy, Warrego

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Nitro, Norwest, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Pendal, Warrego, Fengxiang, Conexio, JAFCO,...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

The silly season is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

This is a done deal barring a dramatic increase in copper prices. At the last close and for the end-April payment, the annualised spread is 4.8%.

Arun George

BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed - Timing, Risk, & Index Effects

BHP and OZL have entered their Scheme Implementation Deed. Given remarks a week ago, not surprising. Done deal. MAC is distant. Arb is trading...

Travis Lundy

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