Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>8697 Japan Exchange and retail facing brokers such as Matsui, SBI, and Monex may do better with Cboe +4.3% given the outlook for increased trading amid higher market volatility. </li>
<li>Japanese MedTech firms Terumo, Asahi Intecc, and Olympus underperformed globally. While FX plays a role, lower rates boost elective surgeries, making them prime candidates for a rebound.</li>
<li>NKY225 inclusion candidates 7453 Ryohin Keikaku and 7453 NRI look attractive as oversold longs as Index arbs will no doubt be rushing back as soon as the panic subsides.</li>
</ul>


8697 Japan Exchange and retail facing brokers such as Matsui, SBI, and Monex may do better with Cboe +4.3% given the outlook for increased trading amid higher market volatility. 
Japanese MedTech firms Terumo, Asahi Intecc, and Olympus underperformed globally. While FX plays a role, lower rates boost elective surgeries, making them prime candidates for a rebound.
NKY225 inclusion candidates 7453 Ryohin Keikaku and 7453 NRI look attractive as oversold longs as Index arbs will no doubt be rushing back as soon as the panic subsides.


Japan Morning Connection: 8697 JP, 7453 JP, 7453 JP

Investment Advisor, Upslope Capital Management

Upslope Capital Management

Investment Advisor

Investment advisor for Upslope Partners Fund, LP, a global long/short equity hedge fund.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>At the end of Q1, the overwhelming consensus – even among typically cautious types – was that investors needed to own stocks through at least the November election.</li><li>After all, markets are strong in election years and financial conditions should continue to improve and/or remain easier than they should be.</li><li>While dented by the recent correction, this narrative doesn’t really seem to have changed much.</li></ul>

At the end of Q1, the overwhelming consensus – even among typically cautious types – was that investors needed to own stocks through at least the November election.After all, markets are strong in election years and financial conditions should continue to improve and/or remain easier than they should be.While dented by the recent correction, this narrative doesn’t really seem to have changed much.

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter: Q1 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.</li>
<li>If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.</li>
<li>If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Japan

Japan Exchange Group Inc is the holding company created through the merger of Tokyo Stock Exchange Group, Inc and Osaka Securities Exchange Co., Ltd. The group provides and operates a marketplace for the trading of equities, futures, and options. The Group manages the trading, as well as administers listed stocks and registered members.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: 8697 JP, 7453 JP, 7453 JP

Japanese brokers may benefit from increased trading with Cboe, MedTech firms could rebound, and NKY225 inclusion candidates highlighted as...

Andrew Jackson

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter: Q1 2024

At the end of Q1, the overwhelming consensus – even among typically cautious types – was that investors needed to own stocks through at least the...

Upslope Capital Management

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: 8697 JP, 7453 JP, 7453 JP

​Japanese brokers may benefit from increased trading with Cboe, MedTech firms could rebound, and NKY225 inclusion candidates highlighted as...

Andrew Jackson

Upslope's Quarterly Investor Letter: Q1 2024

At the end of Q1, the overwhelming consensus – even among typically cautious types – was that investors needed to own stocks through at least the...

Upslope Capital Management

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Japanese brokers may benefit from increased trading with Cboe, MedTech firms could rebound, and NKY225 inclusion candidates highlighted as...