Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.</li>
<li>It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.</li>
<li>There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.
It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.
There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vanguard's revenue is NTD$13.49bn, which is falling at the high-end of guidance NTD$13.2~13.6 in 1Q22. </li>
<li>Vanguard is likely to further raise price in 2Q22, and we expect revenue/GM could be NT$14.67bn/49.2% in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Further price increase could hold in 2H22 because 1) the smartphone growth expectation is reducing in 2Q22, and 2) the US Federal Reserve increased interest rate to control the inflation.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard's revenue is NTD$13.49bn, which is falling at the high-end of guidance NTD$13.2~13.6 in 1Q22. 
Vanguard is likely to further raise price in 2Q22, and we expect revenue/GM could be NT$14.67bn/49.2% in 2Q22.
Further price increase could hold in 2H22 because 1) the smartphone growth expectation is reducing in 2Q22, and 2) the US Federal Reserve increased interest rate to control the inflation.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Preview- Further Price Increase Could Hold in 2H22

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s</a> underperformance to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> just part of the cycle or company specific?</li>
<li>Does the supply constraint issue help or hurt Samsung?  Who is better off? </li>
<li>Key points to focus on to see where Samsung is vs. their blueprint of technology roadmap</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s underperformance to SK Hynix (000660 KS) just part of the cycle or company specific?
Does the supply constraint issue help or hurt Samsung?  Who is better off? 
Key points to focus on to see where Samsung is vs. their blueprint of technology roadmap


Is Samsung in Trouble or Just in Another Downcycle?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Inline quarter, though margins continue to decline on market share loss and ramping new nodes. </li>
<li>Intel is overly optimistic about PCs rebounding in the 2H; 2021's 15% growth is not sustainable.</li>
<li>Intel maintained its full year revenue guidance and increased its EPS despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back half. We find that overly optimistic</li>
</ul>


Inline quarter, though margins continue to decline on market share loss and ramping new nodes. 
Intel is overly optimistic about PCs rebounding in the 2H; 2021's 15% growth is not sustainable.
Intel maintained its full year revenue guidance and increased its EPS despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back half. We find that overly optimistic


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TSMC will raise wafer price about 6% for all product lines since the beginning of 2023. It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Preview- Further Price Increase Could Hold in 2H22

Vanguard's revenue is NTD$13.49bn, which is at the high-end of guidance NTD$13.2~13.6 in 1Q22. Vanguard is likely to further raise price in 2Q22,...

Patrick Liao

Is Samsung in Trouble or Just in Another Downcycle?

Samsung will need to really show that they are not falling behind in terms of technology leadership seems to be the focal point of the remainder of...

Ken S. Kim

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

Intel 1Q22: Unexplained Optimism

Intel maintained its full year guidance and increased its EPS by $0.10 despite lowering 2Q’s guidance. This implies an acceleration in the back...

Aaron Gabin

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