Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung reported 4Q22 detailed results - Semiconductor earnings evaporated and its memory subsegment likely lost money.</li>
<li>Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya Tech, SK Hynix, and Micron.</li>
<li>Japan and the Netherlands have joined the U.S. with chip technology restrictions for China - Hon Hai is a net winner.</li>
</ul>


Samsung reported 4Q22 detailed results - Semiconductor earnings evaporated and its memory subsegment likely lost money.
Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya Tech, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Japan and the Netherlands have joined the U.S. with chip technology restrictions for China - Hon Hai is a net winner.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Results; Will Bleed Competitors; Japan & Holland Join China Chip Ban

<ul>
<li>Inventory levels rose to highs in 3Q22 -- Now increased margin pain may come through as we move through the latest earnings season.</li>
<li>Forecasts still assume relatively strong margins vs. history and thus appear at risk of disappointment.</li>
<li>Earnings forecasts, while assuming a down-cycle, are still assuming a relatively benign down-cycle.</li>
</ul>


Inventory levels rose to highs in 3Q22 -- Now increased margin pain may come through as we move through the latest earnings season.
Forecasts still assume relatively strong margins vs. history and thus appear at risk of disappointment.
Earnings forecasts, while assuming a down-cycle, are still assuming a relatively benign down-cycle.


Why Taiwan's Semiconductor and Hardware Forecasts Might Still Be Too Optimistic

<ul>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium is in the double digits, representing a major breakout.</li>
<li>ASE Technology's premium is also in the double digits and the company will be reporting results next week.</li>
<li>Chunghwa's premium is high for its tight range, and results will be coming out for the company this week.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's ADR premium is in the double digits, representing a major breakout.
ASE Technology's premium is also in the double digits and the company will be reporting results next week.
Chunghwa's premium is high for its tight range, and results will be coming out for the company this week.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: Post CNY Market Closure, Huge ADR Premiums

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>How many kitchens does Intel have? Intel guided 1Q2023 revenues to $11B, down 40% YoY / 22% QoQ and 21% (!!) below consensus $14B. </li>
<li>1Q23 gross margins ex-accounting change guided to 36%, the lowest since 1986!</li>
<li>Intel's worsening FCF means dividend cuts are on the table.</li>
</ul>


How many kitchens does Intel have? Intel guided 1Q2023 revenues to $11B, down 40% YoY / 22% QoQ and 21% (!!) below consensus $14B. 
1Q23 gross margins ex-accounting change guided to 36%, the lowest since 1986!
Intel's worsening FCF means dividend cuts are on the table.


<ul>
<li>ASML and Lam Research's latest guidance implies extremely different near-term revenue outlooks but shows an industry pulling back near-term while investing for long-term.</li>
<li>Results show the much weaker situation for Memory chips vs. Logic chips, and little discussion of a recovery for Memory from the firms so far.</li>
<li>Firms servicing long-term strategic, specialized demand from customers are indeed performing better than those servicing more commoditized demand.</li>
</ul>


ASML and Lam Research's latest guidance implies extremely different near-term revenue outlooks but shows an industry pulling back near-term while investing for long-term.
Results show the much weaker situation for Memory chips vs. Logic chips, and little discussion of a recovery for Memory from the firms so far.
Firms servicing long-term strategic, specialized demand from customers are indeed performing better than those servicing more commoditized demand.


ASML & Lam Results: Key Take-Aways for Semiconductors in 2023

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Results; Will Bleed Competitors; Japan & Holland Join China Chip Ban

Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Why Taiwan's Semiconductor and Hardware Forecasts Might Still Be Too Optimistic

The continued rise in inventory levels seen from 3Q22 results poses a risk for margins in 4Q22E and 1Q23E results. Earnings expectations still...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: Post CNY Market Closure, Huge ADR Premiums

TSMC's ADR premium is in the double digits, representing a major breakout. ASE's premium is also in the double digits and will release results next...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel 4Q22: How Many Kitchen Sinks?

Intel's massive guide down for 1Q23 is just the latest kitchen sink for the perpetually overoptimistic Pat Gelsinger, who is going to need to come...

Aaron Gabin

ASML & Lam Results: Key Take-Aways for Semiconductors in 2023

Firms servicing long-term strategic, specialized demand from customers are indeed performing better than those servicing more commoditized demand.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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