Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.0% as of Apr 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, materials and offset by communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.0% as of Apr 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, materials and offset by communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 19th): Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.</li>
<li>There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. </li>
<li>Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?</li>
</ul>


The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.
There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. 
Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?


Bank of Jiujiang - Rare Announcement Expecting at Least 30% Profit Decline

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. </li>
<li>The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. </li>
</ul>


Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. 
The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. 
Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. 


Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.</li>
<li>CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.</li>
</ul>


The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.


CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows for CNOOC, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows for CNOOC, China Mobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 23rd): CNOOC, China Mobile

China

Agricultural Bank of China Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services. The Banks services includes RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, bill discount, currency trading, bank guarantee, and treasury bill underwriting.

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Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK)

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 19th): Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bank of Jiujiang - Rare Announcement Expecting at Least 30% Profit Decline

Bank of Jiujiang announced that its profit would be at least 30% lower for FY23 due to worsening credit metrics. This is incredibly rare to see...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

Bank of Ningbo shows sharply lower NIM YoY with a declining LDR ratio, that can both means worsening core earnings power. High real estate loan...

Daniel Tabbush

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 23rd): CNOOC, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted the weekly flows for CNOOC, China Mobile.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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