Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was quite light the last two weeks of the year. Non-SB trading of HK was even lighter. Net buying was strong.</li>
<li>Net buying on tech was VERY big but not on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)</a> (small positive) or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> (largest outflow). </li>
<li>Financials and High Div SOEs are back on the menu. SOUTHBOUND has been a Very Big Percentage of traded volume. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was quite light the last two weeks of the year. Non-SB trading of HK was even lighter. Net buying was strong.
Net buying on tech was VERY big but not on Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (small positive) or Meituan (3690 HK) (largest outflow). 
Financials and High Div SOEs are back on the menu. SOUTHBOUND has been a Very Big Percentage of traded volume. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 3 Jan 2025); SB Buys InfoTech, Financials, Energy, Telecoms

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 3rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 3rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 3rd): SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC, Meituan

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 95.0% as of Jan 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.1ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, utilities, materials and offset by consumer staples, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 95.0% as of Jan 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.1ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, utilities, materials and offset by consumer staples, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 3rd):TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.</li>
<li>Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> is the biggest sell.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.
Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. HSBC Holdings (5 HK) is the biggest sell.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 3 Jan 2025); SB Buys InfoTech, Financials, Energy, Telecoms

Overall HK volumes the last two weeks of the year were low. SOUTHBOUND volumes were low but net buying continued strongly. High Div SOEs and SOE...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 3rd): SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC, Meituan

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 3rd):TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for TEC (688187 CH/3898 HK), CanSinoBIO (688185 CH/6185 HK), SD...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 3 Jan 2025); SB Buys InfoTech, Financials, Energy, Telecoms

Overall HK volumes the last two weeks of the year were low. SOUTHBOUND volumes were low but net buying continued strongly. High Div SOEs and SOE...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 3rd): SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC, Meituan

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 3rd):TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for TEC (688187 CH/3898 HK), CanSinoBIO (688185 CH/6185 HK), SD...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...