ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> post-results plus on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>, as it completed its buybacks but it still looks inexpensive.</li>
<li>There was also a commentary on Property Guru ahead of its listing and on the single stock futures launch by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor.</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Grab (GRAB US) post-results plus on Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP), as it completed its buybacks but it still looks inexpensive.
There was also a commentary on Property Guru ahead of its listing and on the single stock futures launch by SGX (SGX SP) for Sea Ltd (SE US) and Taiwan Semiconductor.



The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's Results, Jardine Matheson, and SGX.

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week has seen Insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a> deal.</li>
<li>We also explored online groceries in South-East Asia as we see increasing interest in the space plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> also lays out his top picks for 2022 performance.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week has seen Insights on Grab (GRAB US), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ), Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ), and the Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) deal.
We also explored online groceries in South-East Asia as we see increasing interest in the space plus Nicolas Van Broekhoven also lays out his top picks for 2022 performance.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab Expands, Alfamart, and Mapletree Mega-Merger

Equity Bottom-Up

Semen Indonesia (Gresik) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a> is a key proxy to the recovery in the Indonesian cement market, especially bulk, given its exposure to infrastructure and SOE credentials </li>
<li>Its recent numbers were solid despite a difficult environment and it continues to develop new cement related products, as it broadens its building material solutions strategy.</li>
<li>The correction in the share price represents an opportunity to accumulate the stock given a strong 2022 outlook and it looks cheap on 7.3x FY23E EV/EBITDA at discount to history.</li>
</ul>



Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ) is a key proxy to the recovery in the Indonesian cement market, especially bulk, given its exposure to infrastructure and SOE credentials 
Its recent numbers were solid despite a difficult environment and it continues to develop new cement related products, as it broadens its building material solutions strategy.
The correction in the share price represents an opportunity to accumulate the stock given a strong 2022 outlook and it looks cheap on 7.3x FY23E EV/EBITDA at discount to history.


Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) - Building a Solid Sustainable Future

<ul>
<li>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>Last week's Insights include an update on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) </a>as it broadens its product offering and insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinythai-public-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14107:1" rel="noopener">Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>.</li>
<li>We also provide updates on the outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> as well as on the outlook for Thai Banks and Indonesia cement.</li>
</ul>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
Last week's Insights include an update on Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) as it broadens its product offering and insights on Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB).
We also provide updates on the outlook for Astra International (ASII IJ) and United Tractors (UNTR IJ) as well as on the outlook for Thai Banks and Indonesia cement.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bukalapak, Astra International, and Thai Banks

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Given we are now coming out of Indonesia's latest wave of COVID-19 and mobility and economic activity is resuming , we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> as an interesting proxy for the recovery, given its exposure to West Java, infrastructure spending, and the recovering residential property market </span></p>
</div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> released a solid set of 1H2021 results, with an increase in revenue of +8.0% YoY on the back of an increase in cement volume.  </span><span data-preserver-spaces="true">EBITDA margins improved from 15.5% to 19.2% due to savings in operating expenses and gains in other operating income, leading to an EBITDA increase of +33.6% YoY to IDR1,280.6bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></span><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> </span></p>
<section class="figure">One major cost pressure comes from rising coal prices, which have increased significantly over the past year and the company has been continually both increasing its usage of low calorific coal and alternative fuels over the past 5-years to offset this.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> has a strong focus on improving its emissions, with assistance from the Heidelberg Cement Technology Centre, with a road map in place for energy efficiency and CO2 reductions.</p>
<p>The fact that around 78% of cement sales at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> is in bags makes branding all the more important and as a result the company is quite focused on promoting the brand through TV and social media channels.</p>
<section class="figure">The company continues with its digitalisation and has developed a fully digitalised ordering system with real time data which helps the company's sales to achieve better results both on ordering as well as on pricing.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> estimates that national cement domestic growth will increase by +5% for FY2021 with the resumption of more infrastructure projects and private projects in 2H2021 plus more activity in residential property.</p>
<p>The company's expansion will be focused on expanding its distribution channels through possible new terminals and barge or vessel ownership, as well as potentially exploring M&amp;A opportunities. </p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> trades on 11.1x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 9.9x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 15x, making the company look attractive from a valuation perspective. </span></p>


Given we are now coming out of Indonesia's latest wave of COVID-19 and mobility and economic activity is resuming , we see Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) as an interesting proxy for the recovery, given its exposure to West Java, infrastructure spending, and the recovering residential property market 

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) released a solid set of 1H2021 results, with an increase in revenue of +8.0% YoY on the back of an increase in cement volume.  EBITDA margins improved from 15.5% to 19.2% due to savings in operating expenses and gains in other operating income, leading to an EBITDA increase of +33.6% YoY to IDR1,280.6bn.  
One major cost pressure comes from rising coal prices, which have increased significantly over the past year and the company has been continually both increasing its usage of low calorific coal and alternative fuels over the past 5-years to offset this.



Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) has a strong focus on improving its emissions, with assistance from the Heidelberg Cement Technology Centre, with a road map in place for energy efficiency and CO2 reductions.
The fact that around 78% of cement sales at Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) is in bags makes branding all the more important and as a result the company is quite focused on promoting the brand through TV and social media channels.
The company continues with its digitalisation and has developed a fully digitalised ordering system with real time data which helps the company's sales to achieve better results both on ordering as well as on pricing.





Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) estimates that national cement domestic growth will increase by +5% for FY2021 with the resumption of more infrastructure projects and private projects in 2H2021 plus more activity in residential property.
The company's expansion will be focused on expanding its distribution channels through possible new terminals and barge or vessel ownership, as well as potentially exploring M&amp;A opportunities. 
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) trades on 11.1x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 9.9x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 15x, making the company look attractive from a valuation perspective. 

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP IJ) - Bulky Recovery in Place

Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's Results, Jardine Matheson, and SGX.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab Expands, Alfamart, and Mapletree Mega-Merger

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) - Building a Solid Sustainable Future

Semen Indonesia is geared toward recovery in infrastructure and SOE construction activity, which will drive demand for bulk cement in FY2021, with...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bukalapak, Astra International, and Thai Banks

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP IJ) - Bulky Recovery in Place

We see Indocement as an interesting and high-quality proxy to the recovery in the Indonesian economy, given its exposure to infrastructure through...

Angus Mackintosh

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