External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Semen Indonesia (Gresik) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver.</li><li>ASP is expected to improve by 1.8% in May-Jun24, implying the ASP decline will narrow to -1.5% YTD in Jun24, based on our estimate.</li><li>Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp6,700 on improving outlook and attractive EV/t of US$ 58/t (-1.5SD of the 10-year mean).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver.ASP is expected to improve by 1.8% in May-Jun24, implying the ASP decline will narrow to -1.5% YTD in Jun24, based on our estimate.Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp6,700 on improving outlook and attractive EV/t of US$ 58/t (-1.5SD of the 10-year mean).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semen Indonesia - A Better Optimism Following the May24 Price Hikes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.</li><li>The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.</li><li>However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate -9%/-3% qoq or -2%/+15% yoy volume growth in 2Q24E for SMGR/INTP, while ASP is estimated to improve by ~1% qoq.</li><li>Thus, we expect 2Q24E NP for SMGR/INTP to decline by 38%/2% qoq or -4%/-29% yoy, as 2Q usually is the weakest quarter for cement vol.</li><li>Despite a relatively weak quarter and slightly below sales vol, NP remainsin line. Maintain Neutral rating for sector with INTP as top pick</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate -9%/-3% qoq or -2%/+15% yoy volume growth in 2Q24E for SMGR/INTP, while ASP is estimated to improve by ~1% qoq.Thus, we expect 2Q24E NP for SMGR/INTP to decline by 38%/2% qoq or -4%/-29% yoy, as 2Q usually is the weakest quarter for cement vol.Despite a relatively weak quarter and slightly below sales vol, NP remainsin line. Maintain Neutral rating for sector with INTP as top pickContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: 2Q24 Preview: A Weak Quarter yet Inline 1H24 NP, Expecting Turnaround in 2H24E

<ul><li>Given weak ASP, we lower our FY24F/ FY25F EPS by 21%/20% as we cut our FY24 ASP hike assumption to 0% to -1.5% (vs. +1%-2% prev.).</li><li>We also expect lower FY24F/FY25F vol growth of 1.5%/2.5% (from 2.6%/3%), as we observe slower bagged cement market recovery.</li><li>We downgrade our sector rating to Neutral from Overweight; we switch our top pick to INTP, but with an 16% lower TP of Rp 8,400.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given weak ASP, we lower our FY24F/ FY25F EPS by 21%/20% as we cut our FY24 ASP hike assumption to 0% to -1.5% (vs. +1%-2% prev.).We also expect lower FY24F/FY25F vol growth of 1.5%/2.5% (from 2.6%/3%), as we observe slower bagged cement market recovery.We downgrade our sector rating to Neutral from Overweight; we switch our top pick to INTP, but with an 16% lower TP of Rp 8,400.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Downgrade Sector to Neutral on Weak ASP and Lower Demand

<ul><li>We expect the IKN project to help sustain industry growth and estimate industry’s 2.6%/3% vol growth for 2024F/25F and 3%-4% for 2026F-30F. </li><li>We foresee FY24-26F ROE to gradually improve, driven by steady volume growth and margins improvement from lesser ASP pressure.</li><li>We reinitiate coverage with an Overweight rating as improving ROE is yet to be priced in. Our top pick is SMGR (Buy, TP Rp8,600).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the IKN project to help sustain industry growth and estimate industry’s 2.6%/3% vol growth for 2024F/25F and 3%-4% for 2026F-30F. We foresee FY24-26F ROE to gradually improve, driven by steady volume growth and margins improvement from lesser ASP pressure.We reinitiate coverage with an Overweight rating as improving ROE is yet to be priced in. Our top pick is SMGR (Buy, TP Rp8,600).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Improving S-D with IKN as Demand Driver

Indonesia

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk manufactures cement and building materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures and processes ready-mix cement as well as owns and manages properties and hotels.

PT Solusi Bangun Indonesia Tbk produces cement and operates other related activities. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures and markets ready-mix concrete, operates stone quarries, and provides transportation services.

PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk is a cement producer based in Indonesia.

PT. Waskita Beton Precast tbk operates as a construction services company. The Company offers precast concrete for buildings and bridges, retaining walls, drainages, ready-mix concrete, barriers, and rail pads. Waskita Beton Precast serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk manufactures and distributes construction products. The Company produces and markets precast concrete structures, including bridge beams, retaining walls, pipes, and bearings. WIKA Beton serves the heavy construction market in Indonesia.

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk PT is an exploration and exploitation mining company.

Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT is a diversified mining and metals company. The Company produces ferronickel, nickel ore, gold, silver, bauxite and coal. Aneka Tambang is currently building a chemical grade alumina smelter and is looking to build  a smelter grade alumina smelter as well as a nickel pig iron smelter.

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk operates a pulp and paper factory in East Java which manufactures a range of printing and writing papers, both coated and uncoated. The Company also produces stationery and office products such as notebooks, writing pads, loose leaf, spirals, envelopes, computer forms, gift wraps, inkjet paper, and carbonless paper.

Impack Pratama Industri Tbk PT produces plastic products in Asia and distributes them worldwide. The Company and it's subsidiaries manufacture building material plastics, PVC products, and fiberglass roofing, among other products.

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk produces nickel in matte, an intermediate product, from lateritic ores at its integrated mining and processing facilities near Soroako, Sulawesi

Tangshan Jidong Cement Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets portland cement and cement clinker.  The company also provides cement machine installation services.

Tangshan Jidong Cement Co, Ltd. (000401 CH)

China Resources Cement Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, produces, distributes and sells cement, clinker and concrete.

Goldsun Building Materials Co., Ltd. manufactures building materials. The Company produces pre-mixed concrete, corrugated asbestos sheets, and concrete products. The Company also operates in the real estate development business.

Taiwan Goldsun Building Materials (2504 TT)

Orient Refractories Ltd. fabricates metal products.  The Company manufactures slide gate plates, nozzles and well blocks, tundish nozzles, bottom purging refractories and top purging lances, slag arresting darts, basic spray mass for tundish working lining, and castables.

Lafarge Malaysia Berhad operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and distributes cement and clinker. Lafarge Malaysia also manufactures and sells ready-mixed concrete, provides shipping services, leases vessels, and trades building materials.

Birla Corporation Limited is a manufacturing company that produces and sells cement, automobile trim parts, jute goods, synthetic and cotton yarns, and PVC floor coverings and coated fabrics. The Group also manufactures calcium carbide, ferromanganese, silico manganese, oxygen and iron and steel castings.

Adbri Limited supplies construction materials. The Company distributes cement, concrete, aggregates, industrial lime, clinker, and other related products. Adbri serves customers in Australia.

Cementos Molins, S.A. manufactures and distributes ready-mix concrete, portland cements, luminous cements, pre-cast concrete products and other related building materials.  The Company operates portland and luminous factories, two quarries in Vallirana and Palleja and a manufacturing plant in Palleja.

Vicat S.A. manufactures and sells cements, ready-mix concrete, aggregates and concrete pipes, as well as stucco and mortar for use in building construction internationally.  The Company also produces a variety of papers, medium-to-large capacity paper bags and chemicals and provides freight transportation services.

Breedon Group plc manufactures construction materials. The Company offers asphalt, ready-mixed concrete, surfacing and contracting, cement, and concrete products. Breedon Group operates in Jersey, Channel Islands and the United Kingdom.

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

Semen Indonesia - A Better Optimism Following the May24 Price Hikes

SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver. ASP is expected to improve...

BRI Danareksa Research

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus...

MNC Sekuritas

Cement: 2Q24 Preview: A Weak Quarter yet Inline 1H24 NP, Expecting Turnaround in 2H24E

We estimate -9%/-3% qoq or -2%/+15% yoy volume growth in 2Q24E for SMGR/INTP, while ASP is estimated to improve by ~1% qoq.

BRI Danareksa Research

Cement: Downgrade Sector to Neutral on Weak ASP and Lower Demand

Given weak ASP, we lower our FY24F/ FY25F EPS by 21%/20% as we cut our FY24 ASP hike assumption to 0% to -1.5% (vs. +1%-2% prev.).

BRI Danareksa Research

Cement: Improving S-D with IKN as Demand Driver

We expect the IKN project to help sustain industry growth and estimate industry’s 2.6%/3% vol growth for 2024F/25F and 3%-4% for 2026F-30F.

BRI Danareksa Research

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