Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.</li>
<li>The likely seller will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; (KKR US)</a> as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.</li>
<li>Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. </li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.
The likely seller will be KKR &amp; (KKR US) as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor Sector Hits Historic Highs: Record allocations highlight investor confidence in the sector as second phase of bull market drives allocations to fresh peak.</li>
<li>Country Dynamics Shift: Peak Ownership in Taiwan, USA, Netherlands, while German Semiconductor holdings see strategic pullback through Infineon closures.  </li>
<li>TSMC, ASML, and NVIDIA establish dominance, reflecting investors’ preference for companies at the forefront of technological innovation, while traditional players like Infineon, Intel, and Texas Instruments face declining investor interest.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor Sector Hits Historic Highs: Record allocations highlight investor confidence in the sector as second phase of bull market drives allocations to fresh peak.
Country Dynamics Shift: Peak Ownership in Taiwan, USA, Netherlands, while German Semiconductor holdings see strategic pullback through Infineon closures.  
TSMC, ASML, and NVIDIA establish dominance, reflecting investors’ preference for companies at the forefront of technological innovation, while traditional players like Infineon, Intel, and Texas Instruments face declining investor interest.


Global Semiconductors: Winners Emerge as Fund Allocations Hit Record Highs

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment (SPE).</li>
<li>In FY03/23, the company posted revenue of JPY2.2tn, operating profit of JPY617.7bn, recurring profit of JPY625.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY471.6bn.</li>
<li>Tokyo Electron Limited announced revisions to its full-year earnings forecast for FY03/24.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment (SPE).
In FY03/23, the company posted revenue of JPY2.2tn, operating profit of JPY617.7bn, recurring profit of JPY625.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY471.6bn.
Tokyo Electron Limited announced revisions to its full-year earnings forecast for FY03/24.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> has filed a solid response to SUNY RF’s lawsuit. SUNY RF will counter with a response by 13 March. </li>
<li>The response suggests that SUNY RF’s lawsuit will not be harmed if JIC proceeds with TOB, which is the strongest indication that JIC is comfortable taking on the litigation risk. </li>
<li>A media article stating that SAMR has allowed JIC to withdraw its merger control filing helps explain the current tight spread. However, the article needs to be treated with caution. </li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP) has filed a solid response to SUNY RF’s lawsuit. SUNY RF will counter with a response by 13 March. 
The response suggests that SUNY RF’s lawsuit will not be harmed if JIC proceeds with TOB, which is the strongest indication that JIC is comfortable taking on the litigation risk. 
A media article stating that SAMR has allowed JIC to withdraw its merger control filing helps explain the current tight spread. However, the article needs to be treated with caution. 


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Response to SUNY RF Lawsuit and Rumours of SAMR Approval

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Kokusai’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and...

Arun George

Global Semiconductors: Winners Emerge as Fund Allocations Hit Record Highs

Semiconductor Sector Hits Historic Highs: Record allocations highlight investor confidence in the sector as second phase of bull market drives...

Steven Holden

Tokyo Electron (8035): Q3 FY03/24 Update

Tokyo Electron is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment, with strong financial performance in FY03/23 and revised earnings...

Shared Research

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Response to SUNY RF Lawsuit and Rumours of SAMR Approval

JSR has filed a solid response to SUNY RF’s lawsuit. Crucially, the response implies that JIC is comfortable taking on litigation risk. Separately,...

Arun George

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Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Kokusai’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and...

Arun George

Global Semiconductors: Winners Emerge as Fund Allocations Hit Record Highs

Semiconductor Sector Hits Historic Highs: Record allocations highlight investor confidence in the sector as second phase of bull market drives...

Steven Holden

Tokyo Electron (8035): Q3 FY03/24 Update

​Tokyo Electron is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment, with strong financial performance in FY03/23 and revised earnings...

Shared Research

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Response to SUNY RF Lawsuit and Rumours of SAMR Approval

JSR has filed a solid response to SUNY RF’s lawsuit. Crucially, the response implies that JIC is comfortable taking on litigation risk. Separately,...

Arun George

Tokyo Electron is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment, with strong financial performance in FY03/23 and revised earnings...