Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chevron set to report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting revenue and EPS to fall by 7% YoY and 8.9%, respectively. Outlook is bearish due to lower crude prices.</li>
<li>Chevron's OI PCR at 0.95 signals neutral sentiment, while an 97% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI strikes are focused on strikes of 150, 155, and 157.5.</li>
<li>Chevron’s short interest fell for the second consecutive biweekly period, reaching 53.51 million shares (2.95% of float) as of 15/Oct—a 0.6% fall from 30/Sep.</li>
</ul>


Chevron set to report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting revenue and EPS to fall by 7% YoY and 8.9%, respectively. Outlook is bearish due to lower crude prices.
Chevron's OI PCR at 0.95 signals neutral sentiment, while an 97% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI strikes are focused on strikes of 150, 155, and 157.5.
Chevron’s short interest fell for the second consecutive biweekly period, reaching 53.51 million shares (2.95% of float) as of 15/Oct—a 0.6% fall from 30/Sep.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.</li>
<li>The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.</li>
<li>Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.


[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.


[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Chevron Corporation reported its second-quarter 2024 earnings with some significant highlights and challenges, reflecting its outbound strategy and operational adjustments.</li><li>The corporation achieved a production increase of over 11% compared to the previous year, with a new quarterly record in the Permian region.</li><li>This represents credible growth in traditional energy sectors, complemented by advancements in new energy projects like the ACES green hydrogen project and the Geismar renewable diesel plant expansion.</li></ul>

Chevron Corporation reported its second-quarter 2024 earnings with some significant highlights and challenges, reflecting its outbound strategy and operational adjustments.The corporation achieved a production increase of over 11% compared to the previous year, with a new quarterly record in the Permian region.This represents credible growth in traditional energy sectors, complemented by advancements in new energy projects like the ACES green hydrogen project and the Geismar renewable diesel plant expansion.

Chevron Corporation: What Is Their Strategic Response to Geopolitical and Regulatory Changes? - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Chevron’s Q2 revenue grew 4.7% YoY but its net profit fell by 26.2%. Revenue beat estimates by 1% while EPS missed expectations by 13%.</li>
<li>Production grew 11% YoY, driven by record output in the Permian, strong growth in the DJ Basin, and successful PDC Energy integration.</li>
<li>Q2 capex rose 5.2% YoY to USD 4 billion from higher upstream investments and PDC asset spending. Free cash flow dropped 8% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.</li>
</ul>


Chevron’s Q2 revenue grew 4.7% YoY but its net profit fell by 26.2%. Revenue beat estimates by 1% while EPS missed expectations by 13%.
Production grew 11% YoY, driven by record output in the Permian, strong growth in the DJ Basin, and successful PDC Energy integration.
Q2 capex rose 5.2% YoY to USD 4 billion from higher upstream investments and PDC asset spending. Free cash flow dropped 8% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.


[Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Chevron’s Q3 revenue and EPS are expected to fall YoY lower crude oil prices amid extensive maintenance in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

Chevron Corporation: What Is Their Strategic Response to Geopolitical and Regulatory Changes? - Major Drivers

Chevron Corporation reported its second-quarter 2024 earnings with some significant highlights and challenges, reflecting its outbound strategy...

Baptista Research

[Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins

Chevron's Q2 revenue up 4.7% YoY, but net profit down 26.2%. Production grew 11% YoY, capex rose 5.2% to USD 4 billion. Free cash flow dropped 8%...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Chevron’s Q3 revenue and EPS are expected to fall YoY lower crude oil prices amid extensive maintenance in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

​US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

Chevron Corporation: What Is Their Strategic Response to Geopolitical and Regulatory Changes? - Major Drivers

Chevron Corporation reported its second-quarter 2024 earnings with some significant highlights and challenges, reflecting its outbound strategy...

Baptista Research

[Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins

​Chevron's Q2 revenue up 4.7% YoY, but net profit down 26.2%. Production grew 11% YoY, capex rose 5.2% to USD 4 billion. Free cash flow dropped 8%...

Mint Finance

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Chevron's Q2 revenue up 4.7% YoY, but net profit down 26.2%. Production grew 11% YoY, capex rose 5.2% to USD 4 billion. Free cash flow dropped 8%...