Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a> (JAL) is making a positive recovery on strong domestic and international demand</li>
<li>Weak JPY is a big headwind and so is its 40% fuel hedge cover locked in at higher than-market price. These factors should reverse and unwind next year </li>
<li>Target price JPY3,150 based on 1.65x FY24 P/BV - one standard deviation above its mean. Borderline attractive with 12% UPSIDE, and 2.3% dividend yield  </li>
</ul>



Japan Airlines (9201 JP) (JAL) is making a positive recovery on strong domestic and international demand
Weak JPY is a big headwind and so is its 40% fuel hedge cover locked in at higher than-market price. These factors should reverse and unwind next year 
Target price JPY3,150 based on 1.65x FY24 P/BV - one standard deviation above its mean. Borderline attractive with 12% UPSIDE, and 2.3% dividend yield  


Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today</li>
<li>Taiwan's carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism</li>
<li>Investors seem to be pricing in a '24 earnings collapse that probably won't happen</li>
</ul>


Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today
Taiwan's carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism
Investors seem to be pricing in a '24 earnings collapse that probably won't happen


Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices </li>
<li>Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right </li>
<li>Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia</li>
</ul>


China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices 
Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right 
Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia


China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The day the basis spread disappears is this Friday, the 24th of November. This mirrors a comparable pattern observed during Korean Air's rights offering in 2020.</li>
<li>If the spot price does not fall below the futures price of our entry until this Friday, we could potentially be in a profitable range.</li>
<li>There has been a notable pattern where the spread continues to exist until just before the moment when new share selling becomes feasible.</li>
</ul>


The day the basis spread disappears is this Friday, the 24th of November. This mirrors a comparable pattern observed during Korean Air's rights offering in 2020.
If the spot price does not fall below the futures price of our entry until this Friday, we could potentially be in a profitable range.
There has been a notable pattern where the spread continues to exist until just before the moment when new share selling becomes feasible.


What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean's Rights Offering?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 17 October, Pan Ocean (028670 KS) announced that it will sell its 3.9 million shares (5.85% stake) in Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) for about 163 billion won. </li>
<li>The main purpose of this stake sale is to secure more funds for Pan Ocean to potentially acquire HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). </li>
<li>As evidenced by the recent increase in Baltic Dry Index, the potential expansion of the war in Israel could benefit major bulk shipping companies such as Pan Ocean.</li>
</ul>


On 17 October, Pan Ocean (028670 KS) announced that it will sell its 3.9 million shares (5.85% stake) in Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) for about 163 billion won. 
The main purpose of this stake sale is to secure more funds for Pan Ocean to potentially acquire HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). 
As evidenced by the recent increase in Baltic Dry Index, the potential expansion of the war in Israel could benefit major bulk shipping companies such as Pan Ocean.


Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

South Korea

Hanjin KAL Corporation is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in airline, hotel, and travel related services. Hanjin also invests in real estates.

Asiana Airlines, Inc. provides air cargo and passenger transportation services throughout South Korea and overseas.  The Company also offers airline catering and on-flight duty free shopping services and operates aircraft leasing business.

Jeju Air Co., Ltd. operates as an airline carrier in the aviation industry.   The Company provides air transportation services for passengers, baggage, and cargo within South Korea, Japan, and Southeastern Asian countries.

Tway Air Co., Ltd operates as an airline company. The Company offers flight, hotel, car booking services. Tway Air also provides reissuance of ticket, baggage, airport, and in-flight services. Tway Air serves customers worldwide.

Jin Air Co.,Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation services, aviation equipment maintenance, aircraft leasing services, and other services. Jin Air also provides ticket and hotel booking and consulting services.

Air Busan Co., Ltd. operates as an airline company. The Company offers international and domestic flight, hotel, and car booking services. Air busan also provides reissuance of ticket, baggage, airport, and in flight services. Air busan offers services worldwide.

Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international logistic services. The Company's services include domestic transportation, storage, packaging, vehicle logistic, and logistic consulting.  GLOVIS also runs automobile auction market for used vehicle.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Pan Ocean Co., Ltd. is a Korean shipping company that engages in marine transportation business. The Company provides bulk cargo carrier, pure car and truck carrier, container and tanker services.

CJ Logistics Corporation provides logistics services. The Company provides land transportation, maritime transportation, harbor unloading, cargo storage, international logistics processing, and other services. CJ Logistics also provides internet home shopping services. CJ Logistics serves customers worldwide.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Qantas Airways Limited provides transportation of passengers through two airlines including Qantas (full service carrier) and Jetstar (low cost carrier), operating international, domestic and regional services. The Company also includes Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Freight which generates diverse revenue streams and adds value for customers and investors.

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

Japan Airlines Co. Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers a variety of scheduled  flights and unscheduled flights throughout the world as well as offers air courier services. Japan Airlines also provides tickets, resort hotels, and travel agencies services.

American Airlines Group Inc. operates an airline that provides scheduled passenger, freight, and mail service throughout North America, the Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, and the Pacific.  The Company also provides connecting service throughout the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean.

China Airlines Limited provides scheduled international air transportation for passengers and cargo freight throughout cities in Europe, America, Asia, and Australia.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is an airline holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides air service to passengers in multiple destinations. Alaska Air also provide freight and mail services, primarily to and within the state of Alaska and on the West Coast.

EVA Airways Corp. is an air carrier that transports passengers and cargos. The Company operates primarily in Taiwan and serves international route networks in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.

easyJet plc, a low-cost passenger airline, conducts operations throughout the United Kingdom and mainland Europe.  The Company sells the majority of its tickets through its Web site.

Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. operates air transportation services.  The Company's services include passenger and cargo transportation, aircraft maintenance, and air catering.  Korean Air Lines provides domestic and international airline services.

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Korean Air Lines (003490 KS)

Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

Japan Airlines is recovering with steady domestic and international demand despite headwinds from a weak JPY against the USD. the company is...

Mohshin Aziz

Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

Air cargo rates at EVA remain high, and a strong recovery in Taiwanese tourism demand is lifting passenger yields, too. Investors are pricing in a...

Tracking Traffic

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mohshin Aziz

What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean's Rights Offering?

This post delves into the trading approaches we should consider in response to the futures basis spread caused by Hanwha Ocean's rights offering.

Sanghyun Park

Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Airlines (9201 JP, BUY, TP: JPY3150): Slow, Steady, Stable Recovery

​Japan Airlines is recovering with steady domestic and international demand despite headwinds from a weak JPY against the USD. the company is...

Mohshin Aziz

Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

Air cargo rates at EVA remain high, and a strong recovery in Taiwanese tourism demand is lifting passenger yields, too. Investors are pricing in a...

Tracking Traffic

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

​China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mohshin Aziz

What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean's Rights Offering?

This post delves into the trading approaches we should consider in response to the futures basis spread caused by Hanwha Ocean's rights offering.

Sanghyun Park

Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

​Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...

Douglas Kim

Japan Airlines is recovering with steady domestic and international demand despite headwinds from a weak JPY against the USD. the company is...

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...