Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Commercial real estate (in the world's most expensive city) - check. Hotel exposure - check. Marine services - check. Airline exposure - extra big check.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is trading cheap on a look-thru P/B of 0.2x - but a realistic restructuring plan is needed before entering.</p>
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<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Swire are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<div>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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</div>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Commercial real estate (in the world's most expensive city) - check. Hotel exposure - check. Marine services - check. Airline exposure - extra big check.
Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is trading cheap on a look-thru P/B of 0.2x - but a realistic restructuring plan is needed before entering.



Preceding my comments on Swire are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.





These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Swire's All-Time Low Stub, But ..

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Equity Capital Markets

<p>The ex-rights day of Jin Air's rights offering is tomorrow (September 15).</p><p>So, today is the last day to become eligible to get subscription rights.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="600">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Timetable"}'>Timetable</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"BOD meeting"}'>BOD meeting</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44048}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>August 5, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Preliminary pricing"}'>Preliminary pricing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44085}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>September 11, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ex-rights date"}'>Ex-rights date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44089}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>September 15, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Record date"}'>Record date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44090}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>September 16, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights trade beginning"}'>Subscription rights trade beginning</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44112}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>October 8, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights trade ending"}'>Subscription rights trade ending</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44119}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>October 15, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Final pricing"}'>Final pricing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44125}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>October 21, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stockholder subscription"}'>Stockholder subscription</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44130}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>October 26, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Public subscription"}'>Public subscription</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44133}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>October 29, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'>Payment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44138}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>November 3, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'>Listing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44151}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy","3":1}'>November 16, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Record date for bonus shares"}'>Record date for bonus shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"N/A"}'>N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing - bonus shares"}'>Listing - bonus shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"N/A"}'>N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'><em>Source: DART</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>We now have the ceiling price. The 1st round pricing got fixed at ₩7,000.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="600">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pricing"}'>Pricing</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1st round"}'>1st round</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula='="RP × (1 - "&amp;(R[11]C[0]*100&amp;"%")&amp;") / [1 + ("&amp;(R[12]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;" × "&amp;(R[11]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;")]"))' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"RP × (1 - 20%) / [1 + (50% × 20%)]"}'>RP × (1 - 20%) / [1 + (50% × 20%)]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference price (RP)"}'>- Reference price (RP)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP, 1M VWAP)]"}'>Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP, 1M VWAP)]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[41]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44085}'>September 11, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ex-rights base price"}'>Ex-rights base price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula='="[RP + (1st × "&amp;R[9]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;")] / (1 + "&amp;R[9]C[0]*100&amp;"%"&amp;")"' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"[RP + (1st × 50%)] / (1 + 50%)"}'>[RP + (1st × 50%)] / (1 + 50%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference price (RP)"}'>- Reference price (RP)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Previous close"}'>Previous close</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[39]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44089}'>September 15, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2nd round"}'>2nd round</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula='="RP × (1 - "&amp;(R[5]C[0]*100&amp;"%")&amp;")"' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"RP × (1 - 20%)"}'>RP × (1 - 20%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference price (RP)"}'>- Reference price (RP)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP)]"}'>Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP)]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[40]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44125}'>October 21, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Final"}'>Final</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Max [Min (1st, 2nd), 3D VWAP × 60%]"}'>Max [Min (1st, 2nd), 3D VWAP × 60%]</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Reference date"}'>- Reference date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[38]C[0]" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mmmm\" \"d\", \"yyyy",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44125}'>October 21, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount rate"}'>Discount rate</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2}'>20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Capital increase rate"}'>Capital increase rate</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=LEFT(Terms!R[11]C[0],6)*100/100" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5}'>50.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'><em>Source: DART</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="600">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1st round pricing"}'>1st round pricing</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Date"}'>Date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[27]C[0]" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44085}'>September 11, 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Close"}'>Close</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9860}'>₩9,860</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1W VWAP"}'>1W VWAP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9531.454901}'>₩9,531</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1M VWAP"}'>1M VWAP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9478.988027}'>₩9,479</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Average"}'>- Average</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=sum(R[-3]C[0]:R[-1]C[0])/3" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9623.480975999999}'>₩9,623</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Reference price"}'>Reference price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=min(R[-4]C[0], R[-1]C[0])" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9623.480975999999}'>₩9,623</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1st round price"}'>1st round price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=ceiling.math((R[-1]C[0]*(1-R[-11]C[0]))/((1+(R[-10]C[0]*R[-11]C[0]))), 100)" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7000}'>₩7,000</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'><em>Source: DART</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The ex-rights day of Jin Air's rights offering is tomorrow (September 15).So, today is the last day to become eligible to get subscription rights.





Timetable

BOD meeting
August 5, 2020


Preliminary pricing
September 11, 2020


Ex-rights date
September 15, 2020


Record date
September 16, 2020


Subscription rights trade beginning
October 8, 2020


Subscription rights trade ending
October 15, 2020


Final pricing
October 21, 2020


Stockholder subscription
October 26, 2020


Public subscription
October 29, 2020


Payment
November 3, 2020


Listing
November 16, 2020


Record date for bonus shares
N/A


Listing - bonus shares
N/A

Source: DART

We now have the ceiling price. The 1st round pricing got fixed at ₩7,000.





Pricing

1st round
RP × (1 - 20%) / [1 + (50% × 20%)]


- Reference price (RP)
Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP, 1M VWAP)]


- Reference date
September 11, 2020


Ex-rights base price
[RP + (1st × 50%)] / (1 + 50%)


- Reference price (RP)
Previous close


- Reference date
September 15, 2020


2nd round
RP × (1 - 20%)


- Reference price (RP)
Min [Close, Avg (Close, 1W VWAP)]


- Reference date
October 21, 2020


Final
Max [Min (1st, 2nd), 3D VWAP × 60%]


- Reference date
October 21, 2020


Discount rate
20.00%


Capital increase rate
50.00%

Source: DART







1st round pricing

Date
September 11, 2020


Close
₩9,860


1W VWAP
₩9,531


1M VWAP
₩9,479


- Average
₩9,623


Reference price
₩9,623


1st round price
₩7,000

Source: DART



Jin Air Offer: Trade Situation on This Last Day Before Ex-Rights

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>It was announced after the market close on Friday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-hyundai-development-co-engineering-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27397:1" rel="noopener">HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering &amp; Construction (294870 KS)</a> has finally <a href="https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200911001152320" target="_blank" rel="noopener">given up</a> on its intentions to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asiana-airlines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1896:1" rel="noopener">Asiana Airlines (020560 KS), </a>the second-largest airliner in Korea. Back in December 2019, HDC Hyundai Development initially agreed to acquire a 30.8% stake in Asiana Airlines, as well as new shares to be issued, and its affiliates for 2.5 trillion won (US$2.1 billion).</p>
<p>Following the cancellation of this M&amp;A deal, the financial regulators approved a capital injection of 2.4 trillion won into Asiana Airlines to keep the company alive. The KDB and the Eximbank have already injected a combined 3.3 trillion won, including 1.7 trillion won this year, into Asiana Airlines in the past two years. HDC Hyundai Development paid 250 billion won in a down payment of this M&amp;A deal. The company will file a lawsuit to recover part of this down payment but it is unlikely to recover them, in our view. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The bottom line is that Asiana Airlines currently has a market cap of 0.9 trillion won and there is a looming probability of the creditors requesting for much bigger control of the company in return for 2.4 trillion won which could result in a sharp decline in the share price of Asiana Airlines in the coming weeks. </p>
</div>

It was announced after the market close on Friday that HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering &amp; Construction (294870 KS) has finally given up on its intentions to acquire Asiana Airlines (020560 KS), the second-largest airliner in Korea. Back in December 2019, HDC Hyundai Development initially agreed to acquire a 30.8% stake in Asiana Airlines, as well as new shares to be issued, and its affiliates for 2.5 trillion won (US$2.1 billion).
Following the cancellation of this M&amp;A deal, the financial regulators approved a capital injection of 2.4 trillion won into Asiana Airlines to keep the company alive. The KDB and the Eximbank have already injected a combined 3.3 trillion won, including 1.7 trillion won this year, into Asiana Airlines in the past two years. HDC Hyundai Development paid 250 billion won in a down payment of this M&amp;A deal. The company will file a lawsuit to recover part of this down payment but it is unlikely to recover them, in our view. 

The bottom line is that Asiana Airlines currently has a market cap of 0.9 trillion won and there is a looming probability of the creditors requesting for much bigger control of the company in return for 2.4 trillion won which could result in a sharp decline in the share price of Asiana Airlines in the coming weeks. 


HDC Hyundai Development Gives Up on the Asiana Airlines Acquisition

Hanjin Transportation Co / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Hanjin Kal's other subsidiary, Hanjin T, also goes for an offering.</p><p>It offers 2.97M shares at a capital increase rate of 24.83%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/560/original/1.png?1597000642" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151560"></figure><p>80% goes to the stockholders, so the per share allocation is 0.2.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/561/original/2.png?1597000655" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151561"></figure><p>This offering proceeds pretty much simultaneously with Jin Air's event, only three days apart between them.</p><p>September 16 will be the first round pricing, followed by the ex-rights two trading days later. The subscription rights will be trading on October 13~19.</p><p>We will have a final price on October 23, then followed by a subscription on October 28. Listing is November 18.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/562/original/3.png?1597001581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151562"></figure><p>There is nothing unusual in pricing. This one also carries a usual 20% discount.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/563/original/5.png?1597001591" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151563"></figure>

Hanjin Kal's other subsidiary, Hanjin T, also goes for an offering.It offers 2.97M shares at a capital increase rate of 24.83%.80% goes to the stockholders, so the per share allocation is 0.2.This offering proceeds pretty much simultaneously with Jin Air's event, only three days apart between them.September 16 will be the first round pricing, followed by the ex-rights two trading days later. The subscription rights will be trading on October 13~19.We will have a final price on October 23, then followed by a subscription on October 28. Listing is November 18.There is nothing unusual in pricing. This one also carries a usual 20% discount.

Hanjin Trnspt Rights Offer: Trading Dynamics with Maj Shareholder's 150% Over-Subscription

<p>Jin Air announces a ₩109bil rights offer, 15M new shares with a 50% capital increase.</p><p>The market has well anticipated it, so no surprise here.</p><p>80% of the offering will go to the stockholders, and Shinhan will be working as a lead banker.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/781/original/1.png?1596660223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150781"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/790/original/2.png?1596663570" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150790"></figure><p>We will have preliminary pricing on September 11, then the <strong>ex-rights day</strong> two trading days later on <strong>September 15</strong>. We will be <strong>trading subscription rights</strong> on <strong>October 8~15</strong>.</p><p>Then the final pricing falls on October 21, three trading days before the subscription on October 26. The new shares will get listed on November 16.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/792/original/3.png?1596663801" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150792"></figure><p>Pricing? Nothing unusual here. This offering carries a usual 20% discount.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/793/original/5.png?1596663816" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150793"></figure>

Jin Air announces a ₩109bil rights offer, 15M new shares with a 50% capital increase.The market has well anticipated it, so no surprise here.80% of the offering will go to the stockholders, and Shinhan will be working as a lead banker.We will have preliminary pricing on September 11, then the ex-rights day two trading days later on September 15. We will be trading subscription rights on October 8~15.Then the final pricing falls on October 21, three trading days before the subscription on October 26. The new shares will get listed on November 16.Pricing? Nothing unusual here. This offering carries a usual 20% discount.

Jin Air Rights Offer: Terms & Trading Angle

South Korea

Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. operates air transportation services.  The Company's services include passenger and cargo transportation, aircraft maintenance, and air catering.  Korean Air Lines provides domestic and international airline services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
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Korean Air Lines (003490 KS)

StubWorld: Swire's All-Time Low Stub, But ..

This week in StubWorld ... Shareholders are the big loser as the US, UK and China turn HSBC Holdings (5 HK) into a political...

David Blennerhassett

Jin Air Offer: Trade Situation on This Last Day Before Ex-Rights

???

Sanghyun Park

HDC Hyundai Development Gives Up on the Asiana Airlines Acquisition

It was announced after the market close on Friday that HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction (294870 KS) has finally given up...

Douglas Kim

Hanjin Trnspt Rights Offer: Trading Dynamics with Maj Shareholder's 150% Over-Subscription

Hanjin Kal's other subsidiary, Hanjin T, also goes for an offering.It offers 2.97M shares at a capital increase rate of 24.83%.80% goes to the...

Sanghyun Park

Jin Air Rights Offer: Terms & Trading Angle

Jin Air announces a ₩109bil rights offer, 15M new shares with a 50% capital increase.The market has well anticipated it, so no surprise here.80% of...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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