Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>The average A/H premium changed by -0.9ppt week on week to 118.3%. </li>
<li>Biggest decline in A/H premium appeared in the Communication Services and Consumer Staples sector while the biggest increase was from the Real Estate sector</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.
The average A/H premium changed by -0.9ppt week on week to 118.3%. 
Biggest decline in A/H premium appeared in the Communication Services and Consumer Staples sector while the biggest increase was from the Real Estate sector


A/H Premium Weekly: Decline in Com Service and Consumer Staple Offset by Real Estate

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week. </li>
<li>Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials.</li>
<li>Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 stocks with week-on-week A/H increases. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week. 
Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials.
Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 stocks with week-on-week A/H increases. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Industrials Led Premium Increase

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 2021 pair trade did not work well with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> by 9.9pp, but we maintain such position into 2022.</li>
<li>Much of the 2021 underperformance was incurred in 1Q21, with Air China catching up very well since then, and Dec has been the best month in this year.</li>
<li>Acceleration of international traffic, sustained cargo strength, low comparison base and upside on margin are the four factors that we see will drive Air China narrowing its performance gap.</li>
</ul>


Our 2021 pair trade did not work well with Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) underperformed China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) by 9.9pp, but we maintain such position into 2022.
Much of the 2021 underperformance was incurred in 1Q21, with Air China catching up very well since then, and Dec has been the best month in this year.
Acceleration of international traffic, sustained cargo strength, low comparison base and upside on margin are the four factors that we see will drive Air China narrowing its performance gap.


Roundup of 2021 High Conviction: Still Expect Air China (753 HK) To Outperform CSA (1055 HK) In 2022

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA)

<ul>
<li>We think there should not be much positive effect on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)</a> from Winter Olympics and Paralympics. We expect near-term downside pressure on share price.</li>
<li>Higher operating costs, revenue waivers and tighter traffic control are likely to impair the profitability in next year, as evidenced by the precedent case in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. </li>
<li>While share price has been weak YTD, BCIA is likely to sustain losses into FY22, meaning further book value erosion. That said, even at 0.83x P/B, there is minimal upside.</li>
</ul>


We think there should not be much positive effect on Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) from Winter Olympics and Paralympics. We expect near-term downside pressure on share price.
Higher operating costs, revenue waivers and tighter traffic control are likely to impair the profitability in next year, as evidenced by the precedent case in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. 
While share price has been weak YTD, BCIA is likely to sustain losses into FY22, meaning further book value erosion. That said, even at 0.83x P/B, there is minimal upside.


Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Don't Bet on the Winter Olympics

Shanghai International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We consider the acquisitions of Hongqiao and related assets at a price tag of Rmb19.1bn as both financially fair for and strategically beneficial to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-international-airport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6511:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>The 12.13pp increase in stake by the parent company is a vote of support and confidence, and the acquisitions trimmed its 1H21 loss by 29.8% and lowered LPS by 42.1%.</li>
<li>Profit guarantee for Logistics Company and Advertising Segment by the parent for FY22-24 is very welcomed and translated into undemanding acquisition PERs of 12.8x and 10.2x for FY24F.</li>
</ul>


We consider the acquisitions of Hongqiao and related assets at a price tag of Rmb19.1bn as both financially fair for and strategically beneficial to Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH).
The 12.13pp increase in stake by the parent company is a vote of support and confidence, and the acquisitions trimmed its 1H21 loss by 29.8% and lowered LPS by 42.1%.
Profit guarantee for Logistics Company and Advertising Segment by the parent for FY22-24 is very welcomed and translated into undemanding acquisition PERs of 12.8x and 10.2x for FY24F.


Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Hongqiao Acquisitions Are Fair Deals

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

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China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)

A/H Premium Weekly: Decline in Com Service and Consumer Staple Offset by Real Estate

Biggest decline in A/H premium appeared in the Communication Services and Consumer Staples sector while the biggest increase was from the Real...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Weekly: Industrials Led Premium Increase

Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials. Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 A/H...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Roundup of 2021 High Conviction: Still Expect Air China (753 HK) To Outperform CSA (1055 HK) In 2022

We maintain our view that Air China is set to outpeform China Southern in 2022, with major driving factors being international traffic, cargo...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Don't Bet on the Winter Olympics

We expect BCIA's traffic and cost to be negatively, rather than positively, affected by the Winter Olympics and Paralympics to be held in Feb and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Hongqiao Acquisitions Are Fair Deals

The acquisitions of Hongqiao and related assets will enhance bottom line in next two years. The parent's profit guarantees and increase in stake...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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