Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. </li>
<li>It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. </li>
<li>Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.</li>
</ul>


Nitori dominates in home decor and furniture but now wants to become a top 10 fashion retailer through its N+ chain targeting older women. 
It will raise the rate of new stores to 30 a year and then to up to 100 a year as it reaches scale. 
Will it be the Uniqlo for the middle-aged? If so it could own a chunk of a segment worth an estimated ¥2.5 trillion.


Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>As the year draws to a close, we took time to assess the effectiveness of our high-conviction calls made during the past two years.</li>
<li>With further dividend hikes looking increasingly possible, our 2022 high-conviction call, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> has more room to run this year.</li>
<li>However, it’s probably the right time to take profits from our 2021 high-conviction trade, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> as the US gas-stations profitability maxed-out in the last quarter.</li>
</ul>


As the year draws to a close, we took time to assess the effectiveness of our high-conviction calls made during the past two years.
With further dividend hikes looking increasingly possible, our 2022 high-conviction call, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) has more room to run this year.
However, it’s probably the right time to take profits from our 2021 high-conviction trade, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) as the US gas-stations profitability maxed-out in the last quarter.


2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.</li>
<li>Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.</li>
<li>Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.</li>
</ul>


The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.
Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.
Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.


Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I has at last agreed to sell the ailing Sogo Seibu chain – although not for enough to offset years of investment with little to show for it.</li>
<li>Some hope that this means the start of a house cleaning exercise to rid the group of its multiple under-performing retail assets, leaving a gleaming exemplar of rational efficiency.</li>
<li>This is unlikely, especially for the original Ito-Yokado general merchandise chain and a problem given the lack of growth potential in the group's domestic business.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I has at last agreed to sell the ailing Sogo Seibu chain – although not for enough to offset years of investment with little to show for it.
Some hope that this means the start of a house cleaning exercise to rid the group of its multiple under-performing retail assets, leaving a gleaming exemplar of rational efficiency.
This is unlikely, especially for the original Ito-Yokado general merchandise chain and a problem given the lack of growth potential in the group's domestic business.


Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn't Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado

<ul>
<li>With convenience stores at saturation, the question is how the big 3 chains, Seven Eleven, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> and Familymart can grow.</li>
<li>Their long-standing reputation for innovation is deserved and they continue to adjust quickly to new realities, including during Covid. </li>
<li>They are also now creating new events, hybrid stores and even advertising revenue streams. The following is a review of the key strategies of the big 3 chains.</li>
</ul>


With convenience stores at saturation, the question is how the big 3 chains, Seven Eleven, Lawson Inc (2651 JP) and Familymart can grow.
Their long-standing reputation for innovation is deserved and they continue to adjust quickly to new realities, including during Covid. 
They are also now creating new events, hybrid stores and even advertising revenue streams. The following is a review of the key strategies of the big 3 chains.


Japan's Big 3 Convenience Stores Try to Innovate Out of Saturation

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Nitori to Ramp up N+ Clothing Chain – ¥500 Billion in New Sales?

Nitori has been underestimated before and now apparel retailers believe Nitori doesn't have the experience to take them on. They are wrong. It...

Michael Causton

2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run

With further dividend hikes looking increasingly possible, our 2022 high-conviction call, Japan Tobacco has more room to run this year. However,...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Tourism is back in Japan, both domestic and inbound. We outline some of the key beneficiaries and expectations for a return to 2019 levels by next...

Michael Causton

Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn't Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado

Seven & I will be better off now that it has sold off Sogo Seibu (which will be in much better hands) but this doesn't mean it will offload other...

Michael Causton

Japan's Big 3 Convenience Stores Try to Innovate Out of Saturation

The big 3 Japanese convenience stores are continuing to innovate in an effort to offset saturation and changing work patterns. They will remain...

Michael Causton

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