Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>We analyse the latest SFC data released today evening on short position reporting in Hong Kong for the week ended 15 November.</p></div><div><p>Total short notional in Hong Kong decreased from HKD 455.13bn to HKD 438.71bn over the week mainly driven by falling stock prices.</p></div><div><p>The largest short positions for the week were built in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-china-gas" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:375:1">Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1"></a></p></div><div><p>The largest short positions as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yuhua-education" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23627:1">China Yuhua Education (6169 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-iron-steel-h" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:204:1"></a>while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:942:1">Car Inc (699 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dili-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19556:1">China Dili (1387 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gome-retail-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:170:1">Gome Electrical Appliances (493 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dili-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19556:1"></a></p></div><div><p>Sectorally, shorts were created in Communication Services (US$98m), Utilities (US$55m) and Financials (US$37m) while shorts were covered in Consumer Discretionary (US$107m) and Consumer Staples (US$68m).</p></div>

We analyse the latest SFC data released today evening on short position reporting in Hong Kong for the week ended 15 November.Total short notional in Hong Kong decreased from HKD 455.13bn to HKD 438.71bn over the week mainly driven by falling stock prices.The largest short positions for the week were built in China Construction Bank H (939 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK), Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK) while shorts were covered in Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Meituan Dianping (3690 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK), Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) and AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK).   The largest short positions as a percentage of free float are Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), China Yuhua Education (6169 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Car Inc (699 HK), China Dili (1387 HK), Gome Electrical Appliances (493 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK).   Sectorally, shorts were created in Communication Services (US$98m), Utilities (US$55m) and Financials (US$37m) while shorts were covered in Consumer Discretionary (US$107m) and Consumer Staples (US$68m).

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE ...

Something is up as Kosaido Co Ltd (7868 JP)'s shares trade almost 40% through terms and back down - still 18% through terms.

Descente Ltd (8114 JP)'s management's explanation why Itochu owning 40% would be bad is almost a paean to good governance, but the gloves are off.

Panalpina Welttransport Holding (PWTN SW) is burdened with "social costs" in the near-term.
Opportunistic yes, but Medco Energi Internasional T (MEDC IJ)'s proposal for Ophir Energy (OPHR LN) is okay in a less-than-ideal situation.
A possible last minute counter to Apollo's disappointing offer for RPC Group PLC (RPC LN).
The market is valuing Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US) core ops as an "Old Economy" company with little to no growth prospect.
Plus CCASS movements and expected upcoming events for key M&amp;A transactions.

(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classification and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

M&amp;A - ASIA-PAC

Kosaido Co Ltd (7868 JP) (Mkt Cap: $176mn; Liquidity: $1.2mn)
When Bain announced its MBO for Kosaido at ¥610/share, Travis Lundy concluded (in his insight Smallcap Kosaido (7868 JP) Tender Offer: Wrong Price But Whaddya Gonna Do?) that it was a lowball bid and a virtual asset strip in progress. The kind of thing which gives activist hedge funds a bad name, but when cloaked in the finery of "Private Equity", it looks like the renewal of a business. The share price jumped from the 400s to just under the Tender Offer Price, traded there for several days, then a week after it started trading at or near arb terms, the share price suddenly jumped through terms and headed higher.

Travis' inclination at Thursday's price (¥775/share) is that at a 30% discount to book, there could be enough here to entice someone to split the company up at a slightly better level, but he doubts that it is worth 1x book. Given the headaches involved in making this company worth more than book, it would be worth less than book now. If the Info business can be rescued, then it is cheap. If it cannot, it is not.
Because "management-friendly" shareholders currently hold at least 40% and probably more like 50+%, Travis thinks Murakami-san will find it really tough to mount, or get someone else to mount, a truly hostile action. 
Perhaps Murakami-san's goal here is to block the deal then get management to use debt to buy out other people and expand the funeral parlour business, then get a strategic to buy the whole thing out. It could be, but Travis doesn't think chasing the market at 25-30% above where Murakami-san got in is a good risk.

Since Travis wrote, Murakami-san's vehicles have added another 1.24% to reach 9.55% of shares out. The last set of shares was purchased at an average of ¥652/share.
(link to Travis' insight: Kosaido: Activism Drives Price 30+% Through Terms)

Descente Ltd (8114 JP) (Mkt Cap: $1.8bn; Liquidity: $4.3mn)
This past Thursday 7 February, Descente announced a weak Position Statement (Against) (in Japanese) the Itochu Corp (8001 JP) Tender Offer with a 28-page supporting powerpoint deck (also in Japanese). Descente appears to have no ability to defend itself, and its claim that a large shareholder like Itochu could damage corporate value by weakening governance is effectively a statement that others (like perhaps Wacoal) would too, so only a full takeover makes sense under that defense.

Descente management's explanation for why Itochu owning 40% would be bad is almost a paean to good governance. If the influence of suppliers and customers in the shareholder register is bad, it is bad - whether friendly to management or not. Conflict of interest can happen via entrenchment.
The lack of a white knight proposed and effective "I got nothing, but please don't tender" response is bearish for the shares. if management is right and Itochu's presence at 40% will lower corporate value, the back end might be worth less than ¥1,871/share where it was trading pre-tender. That would mean the fair value of shares now would still be below here.
If Itochu gets its 40% and ANTA votes with Itochu, it is highly possible that the two could effect dramatic change at the management and board level. That would be very hostile and corporate Japan would have something to say about that. Travis says "I am not sure Itochu would go that hostile immediately."

Michael Causton just wrote about Descente's rejection of the Itochu tender saying "The Gloves Are Off". He notes there is a perception of a cultural difference between Descente's brand cultivation and Itochu Textile's hands-off approach to brand management, but notes that the differences between Descente and Itochu need to be resolved quickly in order to optimally ramp up brand awareness and sales points ahead of the Rugby World Cup in Japan this year, the Olympics, next year, and the World Masters Games the year after. 

links to: Travis' insight: Descente's Doleful Defense (Dicaeologia)  Michael's insight: Itochu and Descente: Gloves Off

ND Software (3794 JP) (Mkt Cap: $212mn; Liquidity: $0.04mn)
ND Software (NDS) announced a MBO sponsored by both the existing president, who owns 20%, and J-Will Partners to take the company private at ¥1700/share, which is a 28.7% premium to last trade and comes out to be ~7.2x trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA. The deal comes with a 66.7% minimum threshold for completion, after which there will be a two-step squeeze-out, as is the norm in deals like this. Looks straightforward, but ...

Sometime activist Symphony Financial Partners (SFP) holds around 20% in NDS. If on board, this this deal is almost done because 31.26% is already pledged to tender, Symphony's stake would make it 51.5%. Other presumably management-friendly shareholders own another 10%, and employees own about 7%. If Symphony is on board, that easily clears the 67% hurdle. If SFP are not on board, they own about 60% of what is necessary to block this deal.  And they could buy on market to raise their stake further. 
Travis would not want to sell out his shares tomorrow at ¥1699/share. Or even ¥1701. He thinks there is a chance that the loose float is scooped up by shareholders or players who might want to increase their stake and see if this deal can be bumped. 

(link to Travis' insight: ND Software (3794 JP) TOB for an MBO - Fireworks a Possibility)

M&amp;A - Europe/UK

Panalpina Welttransport Holding (PWTN SW) (Mkt Cap: $4.1bn; Liquidity: $20mn)
Palpina confirmed that the Ernst Göhner Foundation, Panalpina's largest shareholder (46% of shares out) does not support the current non-binding proposal from DSV and that it supports Panalpina’s Board of Directors in pursuing an independent growth strategy that includes M&amp;A. Panalpina'a stock tanked, but is trading only 3% below DSV's indicative offer, and 20.5% above where the stock was trading in mid-January before DSV's indicative non-binding proposal. 

If management had said that they have a plan which is to grow themselves out of their current doldrums, and their largest shareholder supports that plan to stick with management and go slow, nothing will get done until the new chairman is installed in May at the AGM, and even then, given the Foundation's position that they support management's "independent growth strategy", there is not much minority shareholders can do.
This is an ongoing issue of governance. If the directors are effectively chosen by the Ernst Göhner Foundation, which supports the company's independence, so they do too, minority shareholders serve no purpose other than to provide capital for the foundation to keep Panalpina listed.
This doesn't mean that there will be no deal, but it does mean there will be a lull unless someone else comes up with a more aggressive offer. Travis expects this is eventually worth another go but he would want to reload lower and/or later, or when Panalpina is in a better position after the full IT package is deployed.

Since Travis wrote, DSV has released earnings and said it is still significantly engaged in the bid, and comments from the chairman of the Ernst Göhner Foundation has made comments suggesting it is not wedded to the idea, so it comes down to price - someone has to pay now to get the benefits expected from the full IT package.
Travis pointed out in the discussions that interestingly, when DSV released earnings it did not announce a buyback, which would have been normal, leading some to speculate the company is saving its cash for another go at it.
(link to Travis' insight: Largest Panalpina Shareholder to Other Shareholders: Get Stuffed) 

Ophir Energy (OPHR LN) (Mkt Cap: $204mn; Liquidity: $3mn)
On its fourth attempt Medco Energi Internasional T (MEDC IJ) receives board approval for its £0.55/share (66% premium to the closing price) offer for Ophir. The deal is conditional on receiving 75% shareholder approval, approval from the relevant authorities in Tanzania and Ophir not losing all or substantially all of its Bualuang interests in Thailand. It is expected that the Scheme will become effective in the first half of 2019.

There is an opportunistic element to Medco's tilt after Ophir recently announced the denial of the license extension for the Fortuna project by the Equatorial Guinea Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons. This resulted in a $300mn non-cash impairment. Ophir had previously written down $310mn on the same project back in September.
Shareholders such as Petrus (~2.8% stake) won't support the offer having announced in mid-Jan that Medco's earlier £0.485/share proposal “massively under-values” Ophir.
Reg approvals are not expected to be an issue  - the stake in Tanzania is for a 20% non-controlling interest, a similar % approved in a prior sale to Pavilion in 2015. There is no approval/consent required from the Thai authorities – it is in there really to cover the unlikely situation that for some reason the Thai authorities raise an objection.

Ophir's shares are trading at or close to terms. Given Medco's numerous proposals in short succession - four in three months - a bump cannot be dismissed. And the recent disclosure of a new shareholder (Sand Grove) may warrant such an outcome. A firm offer is on the table backed by the Ophir's board. I'd look to get involved a spread or two below terms. 


(link to my insight: Medco's "Okay" Offer For Ophir After Fortuna Setback)  

RPC Group PLC (RPC LN) (Mkt Cap: $4.2bn; Liquidity: $43mn)
On January 23, after months of media speculation, RPC announced a final cash offer by a unit of Apollo Global Management for £7.82/share by way of a scheme. Two institutional shareholders, Aviva, with 1.93% and Royal London Asset Management, with 1.44%, immediately expressed disappointment with the offer valuation.

On January 31, Berry Global Group, a former Apollo  portfolio company, announced it was considering a possible cash offer for RPC and has requested due diligence. RPC responded with a release confirming it will engage with Berry in order to advance discussions in the interests of delivering best value to shareholders.
The price being paid by Apollo is not very generous, though RPC’s sale process has been widely reported since September, 2018. Apollo’s 'no increase' declaration has made it easy for BERY to win this, provided no one else comes to the party. (I reached out to RPC who confirmed Apollo is restricted from countering a higher bid as it is bound by the language in the Offer announcement that the offer of £7.82 per share is final and will not be increased.) So there is limited upside from here unless you think someone else could join BERY as a late gatecrasher.
Apollo’s offer provides an effective floor so there is limited downside from here, especially under strict UK rules which make it difficult for an acquirer to walk. John DeMasi recommend buying RPC on the possibility BERY comes out with a generous offer or another buyer shows up due to the undemanding valuation of Apollo’s offer.

(link to John's insight: RPC Group PLC - It Ain't Over 'til It's Over)

STUBS &amp; HOLDCOS

Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US) (Mkt Cap: $60.6bn; Liquidity: $490mn)
Johannes Salim, CFA tackled Baidu which he estimates is trading at a discount to NAV of 29% or ~2 SD below its 3-yr average NAV discount.

It's a weak-ish stub with 57%-owned video streaming subsidiary iQIYI Inc (IQ US) (which went public in 1Q18) and 19%-owned online travel agency, Ctrip.Com International (Adr) (CTRP US), together accounting  for 14% of NAV.
BIDU's core business (primarily online/mobile search services plus new initiatives such as Baidu Cloud and autonomous driving), accounts for 78% of NAV, with net cash a further 8% of NAV.
Fundamentally, BIDU's core business has grown healthily, with strong cash flows generation. Johannes estimates the market is unjustifiably valuing this business at US$49.3bn, or 8.7x 2019E EV/EBITDA or 11.2x 2019P, suggesting little to no growth prospect.

(link to Johannes' insight: Baidu: Time to Swoop In, with NAV Discount Widening Substantially)

CJ Corp (001040 KS) (Mkt Cap: $3bn; Liquidity: $7.5mn)
Sanghyun Park recommends long Holdco and short the synthetic sub ((Cj Cheiljedang (097950 KS), CJ ENM (035760 KS), CJ CGV Co Ltd (079160 KS) and Cj Freshway (051500 KS) on a ratio of 50:40:7:3 ) at this point.

By my calcs, CJ Corp is trading at a 52% discount to NAV compared to a 52-week average of 41%. CJ C and CJ ENM comprise 63% of NAV.
Of note, the stub ops still account for 29% of NAV and primarily comprises the 55.13% stake in CJ Olive Networks and brand royalty, each accounting for ~13% of NAV.

(link to Sanghyun's insight: CJ Corp Holdco/Synthetic Sub Trade: Current Status &amp; Trade Approach)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP)(Mkt Cap: $15.8bn; Liquidity: $24mn)
Curtis Lehnert recommends closing the Toyota set-up trade, which hasn't exactly been a storming one (4% or 1.96% on the gross notional).

Toyota announced earning recently which (slightly) beat expectations slightly and the stock rallied in response. This move brought the discount to NAV in line with its 6-month average and has eroded the statistical edge of staying in the trade.
The fundamentals for Toyota are still attractive, therefore it could be argued to hold the stub beyond these levels. However, Curtis has opted for the tactical route in the current environment and take profits when a statistical edge disappears.

(link to Curtis' insight: TRADE IDEA - Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Close the Stub Trade)

SHARE CLASSIFICATIONS

Briefly ...

Sanghyun recommended a long 2PB and short 1P, after Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)'s 1P/2PB price ratio touched 152% of σ on a 20D MA. This is the highest since late Nov last year. Hyundai Motor Share Class: Long 2PB / Short 1P Amid Restructuring Speculation

Sanghyun also recommended go long Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s1P and short Common, for a short term reversion as we enter the March shareholder meeting phase. Samsung Electronics Share Class: Long 1P / Short Common on BlackRock Showing



OTHER M&amp;A UPDATES



Greencross Ltd (GXL AU) shareholders have approved the scheme of arrangement.


MYOB Group Ltd (MYO AU) trades through terms after announcing Vinva is a new substantial holder.


CCASS

My ongoing series flags large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves which are often outside normal market transactions.  These may be indicative of share pledges.  Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings. 
Often these moves can easily be explained - the placement of new shares, rights issue, movements subsequent to a takeover, amongst others. For those mentioned below, I could not find an obvious reason for the CCASS move.   





Name


% change


Into


Out of


Comment



Tansh Global Food Group (3666 HK)
42.30%
Guotai
China Securities



Regina Miracle International (2199 HK)
10.46%
Hang Seng
MS



China Minsheng Financial (245 HK)
28.11%
Oceanwide
CM Securities



China Metal Resources Utilization (1636 HK)
11.15%
China Securities
Sun Securities



Shanghai Industrial Urban Dvp Grp (563 HK)
10.39%
OCBC
DBS





Source: HKEx

UPCOMING M&amp;A EVENTS






Country


Target


Deal Type


Event


E/C



Aus
Greencross
Scheme
11-Feb
2nd Court Date/Scheme Effective Dt
C


Aus
Stanmore Coal
Off Mkt
5-Feb
Payment date
C


Aus
GrainCorp
Scheme
20-Feb
Annual General Meeting
C


Aus
Propertylink
Off Mkt
28-Feb
Close of offer
C


Aus
Healthscope
Scheme
April/May
Despatch of Explanatory Booklet
E


Aus
Sigma
Scheme
February
Binding Offer to be Announced
E


Aus
Eclipx Group
Scheme
February
First Court Hearing
E


Aus
MYOB Group
Scheme
11-Mar
First Court Hearing Date
C


HK
Harbin Electric
Scheme
22-Feb
Despatch of Composite Document
C


HK
Hopewell
Scheme
28-Feb
Despatch of Scheme Document
C


India
Bharat Financial
Scheme
28-Feb
Transaction close date
C


India
GlaxoSmithKline
Scheme
9-Apr
Target Shareholder Decision Date
E


Japan
Pioneer
Off Mkt
1-Mar
Designation of Common Stock as Securities To Be Delisted by TSE
C


Japan
Showa Shell
Scheme
1-Apr
Close of offer
E


NZ
Trade Me Group
Scheme
14-Feb
Takeovers Panel and NZX on Booklet
C


Singapore
Courts Asia
Scheme
15-Mar
Offer Close Date
C


Singapore
M1 Limited
Off Mkt
18-Feb
Closing date of offer
C


Singapore
PCI Limited
Scheme
February
Release of Scheme Booklet
E


Thailand
Delta
Off Mkt
February-April
SAMR of China Approval
C










Finland
Amer Sports
Off Mkt
28-Feb
Offer Period Expires
C


Norway
Oslo Børs VPS
Off Mkt
4-Mar
Nasdaq Offer Close Date
C


Switzerland
Panalpina 
Off Mkt
27-Feb
Binding offer to be announced
E










US
Red Hat, Inc.
Scheme
March/April
Deal lodged with EU Regulators
C



Source: Company announcements. E = our estimates; C =confirm

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kosaido, Descente, Panalpina, Ophir, RPC, Baidu, CJ Corp

Hong Kong

China Metal Resources Utilization Ltd is a manufacturer of recycled copper known as semis. The Company processes recycled scrap copper and electrolytic copper to manufacture a range of copper products, including copper wire rods, copper wires, copper plates and copper granules. China Metal's operates and distributes their products in Southwestern China.

China Metal Resources Utilization (1636 HK)

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China Metal Resources Utilization (1636 HK)

HK - Sniffing Out The Shorts

We analyse the latest SFC data released today evening on short position reporting in Hong Kong for the week ended 15 November.Total short notional...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kosaido, Descente, Panalpina, Ophir, RPC, Baidu, CJ Corp

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Something is up as Kosaido Co Ltd (7868 JP)'s shares trade almost 40% through terms and back down - still 18% through...

David Blennerhassett

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